40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Clouds starting to clear out here. Hopefully dry enough for some yardwork this afternoon. It was, and I went over the lawn one last time...all set for the SWFEs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact it would harm matters All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: 07-08 was good but not spectacular in wilmington, ma with around 70" or so iirc. maybe a touch higher like 75"? Best event was probably 12/16 in terms of impacts also iirc 73.5"...probably low 80s IMBY now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 hours ago, eduggs said: Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts. I'm not basing it on a 15 day model...and yes, I've locked it in as it pertains to the seasonal mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior. Yes, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 I am extremely confident se Canada will be cold more often than not and have been since like August. ...like 10/10 confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. I meant later as the PAC ridge might relax mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I meant later as the PAC ridge might relax mid month. I wouldn't hold your breath on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't hold your breath on that. I think it will. Goes to your warm up near Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. That’s the last thing I want. I’d rather roll the dice with strong lows than hearing about deamplifying trends all season long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it will. Goes to your warm up near Christmas. No, I meant on latter December -NAO. I agree regarding emergence of Pacific trough pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Was gonna post, we’ll take our chances FOR SURE! Maybe we strike out, but we’ll have some pitches to swing at. It looks like 07-08. I will take my chances with this look ANY DAY over any strong or super Nino December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 It could get icy at times. That’s the bigger risk than suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 6 hours ago, dendrite said: Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1. "perfect"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Early rains froze up tonight. Everything frozen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was, and I went over the lawn one last time...all set for the SWFEs. They are coming. I think we both have a fun winter relative to the last few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Down to 21F here in E CT, flash freeze of anything still wet from yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 27 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Min 25.6° Lots of mid level clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 27 here. 21F here. So close to 1st teems. Coldest AM thus far this cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 23 here…coldest so far-many below freezing mornings this autumn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Nothing too exciting through the runs for SNE… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 21F here. So close to 1st teems. Coldest AM thus far this cold season. Been meh morning lows. No real arctic shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Let’s get a GFS landfalling cane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 20.3⁰ for the low, coldest of the season. Everything is frozen, looks nice with the sun coming up. Clouds are beginning to roll in, going to make for quite the chilly day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been meh morning lows. No real arctic shots. Yeah…run of the mill stuff for Novie standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Been meh morning lows. No real arctic shots. Consistently cold mornings her for weeks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 Latest 17F or colder at CON is 12/12/1998. That’s pretty far out there still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 It’s been a consistently fake airmass autumn. Lowest here is 27.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2025 Share Posted November 23, 2025 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Consistently cold mornings her for weeks though. About as boring as you can run a -2. If we ran a +2 like this people would be saying it was faux warmth. But yeah, it’s been fairly seasonal with no real ups and downs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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