November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Clouds starting to clear out here. 
Hopefully dry enough for some yardwork this afternoon.

It was, and I went over the lawn one last time...all set for the SWFEs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In fact it would harm matters 

All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

07-08 was good but not spectacular in wilmington, ma with around 70" or so iirc. maybe a touch higher like 75"?  Best event was probably 12/16 in terms of impacts also iirc

73.5"...probably low 80s IMBY now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts. 

I'm not basing it on a 15 day model...and yes, I've locked it in as it pertains to the seasonal mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior. 

Yes, agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am extremely confident se Canada will be cold more often than not and have been since like August. ...like 10/10 confidence.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. 

I meant later as the PAC ridge might relax mid month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant later as the PAC ridge might relax mid month.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't hold your breath on that. 

I think it will. Goes to your warm

up near Christmas. 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect. 

That’s the last thing I want. I’d rather roll the dice with strong lows than hearing about deamplifying trends all season long. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it will. Goes to your warm

up near Christmas. 

No, I meant on latter December -NAO. I agree regarding emergence of Pacific trough pattern.

[George001]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Was gonna post, we’ll take our chances FOR SURE!  Maybe we strike out, but we’ll have some pitches to swing at. 

It looks like 07-08. I will take my chances with this look ANY DAY over any strong or super Nino December. 

[George001]

It could get icy at times. That’s the bigger risk than suppression.

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

"perfect"? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Early rains froze up tonight. Everything frozen 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was, and I went over the lawn one last time...all set for the SWFEs.

They are coming.  I think we both have a fun winter relative to the last few.