November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Better Aurora tonight maybe? 

Maybe. But timing of CME and clouds might make it meh. 

[ineedsnow]

We snow! 

[CoastalWx]

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

[SJonesWX]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

i was told it was something to watch

16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been trending colder . Something to watch with the blocking 

 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

Like I said…NAO overrated more times than  not lately for us.  

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The past 2 bigger events have been nice and visible to the naked eye here, but 2003 blows this away. It’s like comparing my 34” in 12hrs in Dec 2020 to my 34 flakes yesterday. 

I think that's the one I saw on my way to canada.. if it was it was epic and unexpected

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i was told it was something to watch

 

Watch it slip away. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I think that's the one I saw on my way to canada.. if it was it was epic and unexpected

I don't recall it at all.  I only knew about last night's due to social media.  Didn't really exist back then.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not talking about anything beyond day 7 fantasy. Maybe he is.

[WxWatcher007]

I promise not to clog the thread lol but did want to share these here. It’s so weird to have today feel like January. Just a whole different world up here. 

I don’t have a good measuring spot yet but will try to get a snow board today. Been around 3” in the last few days. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Like I said…NAO overrated more times than  not lately for us.  

Agreed, it gets overstated way too much, especially wen it comes to worrying which phase the NAO is in. I get that a -NAO has a higher correlation to cold/snow versus a +NAO, but it's not a significantly higher correlation. What's most important is the structure of the NAO, placement of the pressure anomalies, and how the NAO is transitioning. I believe there is a much stronger correlation to snowfall with respect to a transitioning NAO versus a static state NAO

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I promise not to clog the thread lol but did want to share these here. It’s so weird to have today feel like January. Just a whole different world up here. 

I don’t have a good measuring spot yet but will try to get a snow board today. Been around 3” in the last few days. 

Remind me what that is again? I've seen and heard stories about it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it  -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them.

it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century... that no one really bothered to actually intimately understand.  then, fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing.  i blame them for graphics shock and wooing people with it.  like an amazing thing  "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation"   zomb!  but even Heather Archembault's statistical review 30 years ago said that it was weakly correlated. 

in reality, few understood(stand) it.  there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) circumstance when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means.  and it is different for each, D.C.,  Boston, and Caribou.  it's a moving parts access.   it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - for this context, your heart.  

it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it.  but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e.  all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference.

what you're saying above?  that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference.

sorry just venting

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Remind me what that is again? I've seen and heard stories about it. 

Saranac Lake

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Saranac Lake

Oh I mean that pretty stuff decorating the landscape. I feel like I should recall it.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh I mean that pretty stuff decorating the landscape. I feel like I should recall it.

Just caught that  

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it  -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them.

it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century...then fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing.  then, few actually understood it but it sure sounding like some amazing thing  "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation"   zomb! 

in reality, few understood(stand) it.  there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means.  and it is different for each, D.C.,  Boston, and Caribou.  it's a moving parts access.  it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - in this, your heart.  

it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it.  but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e.  all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference.

what you're saying above?  that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference.

sorry just venting

Yeah Pacific helping to shred this. Ity's no big deal...just sort of laughed seeing it shred. Maybe the Euro op and AI offer some hope beyond that....but that is fantasy land.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it  -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them.

it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century...then fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing.  then, few actually understood it but it sure sounding like some amazing thing  "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation"   zomb! 

in reality, few understood(stand) it.  there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means.  and it is different for each, D.C.,  Boston, and Caribou.  it's a moving parts access.  it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - in this, your heart.  

it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it.  but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e.  all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference.

what you're saying above?  that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference.

sorry just venting

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are. 

[Cyclone-68]

Sigh….You know it’s been slow when that argument last week was the most exciting thing to happen here in months 

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, TheMainer said:

First inch of snow overnight, only had flurries before. Going to move up driving our field stakes for the snowmobile club by a week cause if we wait the ground is going to be frozen pretty good. First fall since 2018 we won't do it the weekend before Thanksgiving so by pure anecdotal evidence hopefully we'll have a good winter! 

I'm skeptical about Sunday at lower elevation here in the valley, but up higher might do decent.

Hope you didn't ruin winter by going to put out the stakes earlier.........lol

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are. 

Adding to the bold ... RONI studies, which are hugely necessary and thank god imho, there has to be revamp in correlations - or evolution .. maybe not complete overhaul. 

I remember writing posts suggesting something like a RONI was needed, jesus .. 15 years ago?  In the end days of Eastern, that the ENSO cannot mean the same thing when the Hadely Cell is expanded.  Most spurned the notion ... typical. 

There may have, and probably was, already research going on about the HC expansion ... but I hypothesized that on my own decades ago.  It started in 1998 for me actually, at the tail end of that super nova El Nino ...when I noticed ( and came up with the "Miami Rule" ) that the heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic were failing to recede as far in the winters.   It's subtle... like 3 to 5 measly hgh contours goes under the radar.  But, that means the flow is compressing whenever troughs press east across the continent.  That compression means higher geostrophic base wind velocity and guess what ...that's been verified(ing) ever since.  And it's gotten worse.  This is not merely ENSO...as it is observed regardless of cool and warm phases. It occurred to me that those large scale mechanical balances were possibly overwhelming ENSO forcing... That's gotten more obvious since.  Some of these ENSOs are not registering nearly as obviously as they used to around the common climo expectation regions where it was known to do so in the past.  The boa constrictor of CC.

[Chrisrotary12]

Sign of things to come this year? Heavy band setting up on 93 in NH. Frustratingly close but porked in subsidence. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I will say one thing in defense of the NAO ... it's more important for NW Europe.

[Chrisrotary12]

14 hours ago, alex said:

Haha well… we do have great prices this time of the year for any Southerner that wants to visit

it’d be great for business to have a good winter. Skiing hasn’t been an issue but snowmobiling has been tough in the past few years 

Who is we?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Adding to the bold ... RONI studies, which are hugely necessary and thank god imho, there has to be revamp in correlations - or evolution .. maybe not complete overhaul. 

I remember writing posts suggesting something like a RONI was needed, jesus .. 15 years ago?  In the end days of Eastern, that the ENSO cannot mean the same thing when the Hadely Cell is expanded.  Most spurned the notion ... typical. 

There may have, and probably was, already research going on about the HC expansion ... but I hypothesized that on my own decades ago.  It started in 1998 for me actually, at the tail end of the super nova El Nino ...when I noticed ( and came up with the "Miami Rule" ) that the heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic were failing to recede as far in the winters.   It's subtle... like 3 to 5 measly hgh contours goes under the radar.  But, that means the flow is compressing whenever troughs press east across the continent.  That compression means higher geostrophic base wind velocity and guess what ...that's been verified(ing) ever since.  And it's gotten worse.  This is not merely ENSO...as it is observed regardless of cool and warm phases.

There was a paper I read a few years ago about the use of the RONI and how it is a better indicator of the true state versus the traditional ONI. There were multiple examples used, but there was one that looked at the 2015/2016 event, which per ONI was super strong. Based on forecasts and guidance for a super strong EL Nino certain measures were taken (I want to say it was western Africa) in preparations for impacts to precipitation, etc and ultimately took too aggressive measures and it cost some industries alot of money. But per the RONI, the event was not nearly as strong and their weather for the winter season was more reflective of that of a moderate event. Essentially, the study indicated if they used the RONI they wouldn't have taken as aggressive measures. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There was a paper I read a few years ago about the use of the RONI and how it is a better indicator of the true state versus the traditional ONI. There were multiple examples used, but there was one that looked at the 2015/2016 event, which per ONI was super strong. Based on forecasts and guidance for a super strong EL Nino certain measures were taken (I want to say it was western Africa) in preparations for impacts to precipitation, etc and ultimately took too aggressive measures and it cost some industries alot of money. But per the RONI, the event was not nearly as strong and their weather for the winter season was more reflective of that of a moderate event. Essentially, the study indicated if they used the RONI they wouldn't have taken as aggressive measures. 

 

expanding this ( humorously ) further ... a lot of seasonal forecasters using ENSO in sale and promotion pitches lending to d-drip readers purchasing, and costing them "a lot of emotional money", too.  LOL

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe. But timing of CME and clouds might make it meh. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch it slip away. 

you seem very negative lately. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

 

 

you seem very negative lately. 

Find me some weather excitement.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

expanding this ( humorously ) further ... a lot of seasonal forecasters using ENSO in sale and promotion pitches lending to d-drip readers purchasing, and costing them "a lot of emotional money", too.  LOL

IMO, the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (which Ray did a great discussion on within his winter outlook, which I will hopefully finish reading today or tomorrow and comment on) in recent decades probably elicits far more weight on the global regime versus ENSO (maybe even a stronger ENSO event) given the expansion of 29-30C SSTs which is going to contribute to a great deal of convection and latent heat release...oh and add in the regime of the WHWP. 

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Sign of things to come this year? Heavy band setting up on 93 in NH. Frustratingly close but porked in subsidence. 

It’s just light dinky stuff.