November 2025 General Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

extended looking wet and cutter heavy

given the stickiness of patterns and storm tracks over the past few years, i'm gonna take this as a good sign with snow climo about to rapidly improve here over the coming weeks

[nvck]

out of the 6 auroral events i've caught, this was probably 2nd (maybe 1st?) compared to october 10th of last year. Either way, really awesome experience, and i'm glad the clouds cooperated more than Tuesday night. 

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/13/2025 at 5:58 AM, A-L-E-K said:

extended looking wet and cutter heavy

given the stickiness of patterns and storm tracks over the past few years, i'm gonna take this as a good sign with snow climo about to rapidly improve here over the coming weeks

 

 

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Temperatures have overachieved today and we’ve set a new record high in Minneapolis. 72 breaking the old record of 71

[Chambana]

75 in Champaign 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Temperatures have overachieved today and we’ve set a new record high in Minneapolis. 72 breaking the old record of 71

 

[cyclone77]

72 here today.  MLI missed the record by a few degrees with a 73.

[hawkeye_wx]

21 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

 

 

This would be nice, but some models are hinting at suppression.  The AI Euro drops little to nothing from north of I-80.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This would be nice, but some models are hinting at suppression.  The AI Euro drops little to nothing from north of I-80.

Not a thing this cold season. Build an arc.

[A-L-E-K]

Torching at 70

[Geoboy645]

Hard to believe at this time last week we were talking about feet of snow falling in areas that are now over 70 degrees. Got to love November in the Midwest. 

[nvck]

TOR warnings this year. Check out those hotspots in southern Illinois and Indiana!

[hawkeye_wx]

The big late-week system is now gone from the GFS.  The southwest energy has been slowing while the energy moving along the Canada border has been speeding up and digging a bit more, so the wet cutter gets squashed.

[cyclone77]

That late week system had been looking quite nice for several days on multiple models.  A real shame to see it crap the bed across the board today.  Next mirage storm coming around the 25th.

[Baum]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That late week system had been looking quite nice for several days on multiple models.  A real shame to see it crap the bed across the board today.  Next mirage storm coming around the 25th.

Bad sign.

[A-L-E-K]

our cutters showing a real propensity to go poof and the big flip cold looking like a dud

sad

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

our cutters showing a real propensity to go poof and the big flip cold looking like a dud

sad

December is looking good. The cold did not go poof, it just delayed a bit.

As for the cutter going poof. I have a outdoor event Friday so im happy, I did not want rain. But I hope it's not a sign of things to come for winter. 

[DocATL]

I wish the ridge flex at the end of the GFS was strong enough to get the rain to move north of us but alas, no! #FantasyRangeMusings


.

[Spartman]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

our cutters showing a real propensity to go poof and the big flip cold looking like a dud

sad

Garbage pattern over the next week or so starting tomorrow, sure. The 06z and 12z GFS runs lost the cold throughout those two whole runs.

 

[Baum]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

December is looking good. The cold did not go poof, it just delayed a bit.

As for the cutter going poof. I have an outdoor event Friday so im happy, I did not want rain. But I hope it's not a sign of things to come for winter. 

“Delayed” is the polite way of denying “poof” in the weather world I’ve come to learn over the years. It’s like that saying, “how did you go bankrupt? Real slow at first, and than all at once. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Close call for the Twin Cities tomorrow. Bad thermals and a razor sharp northern edge. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Baum said:

“Delayed” is the polite way of denying “poof” in the weather world I’ve come to learn over the years. It’s like that saying, “how did you go bankrupt? Real slow at first, and than all at once. 

I know what youre saying. But honestly December looking pretty good. Haven't said that in years. 

[Frog Town]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know what youre saying. But honestly December looking pretty good. Haven't said that in years. 

I think a lot of use are suffering from PTSD and a very skeptical despite what all the models are saying.  '16-'17 was a year that we chased SSW and blocking all season long for it to end up somewhere else.  

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I think a lot of use are suffering from PTSD and a very skeptical despite what all the models are saying.  '16-'17 was a year that we chased SSW and blocking all season long for it to end up somewhere else.  

Funny thing is 2016-17 had a very good December. It was the rest of the winter that was mild.

[sbnwx85]

There was some sleet mixed in with the rain tonight. Temps in the upper 30's.

[KeenerWx]

On 11/16/2025 at 10:02 AM, nvck said:

TOR warnings this year. Check out those hotspots in southern Illinois and Indiana!

IEM is such a fun little rabbit hole to sink into. Especially when things are quiet. Looked at tornado warning counts over the past nearing 20 years (2005-2025). A few things stood out to me in particular right away. 
 

There was one small area in Illinois that has had 0 tornado warnings in the past 20 years, near Dalzell (NNW of Peru) in LaSalle County. 
 

 

Similarly, two small areas in Iowa that have had 0 tornado warnings in same period. One in W Winneshiek County, around/east of Protivin. The other in Ida County around Battle Creek.
 

 

Indiana appeared to have full coverage over the period, which is what I’d expected from IL/IA. MN/WI/MI/OH had several gaps, but again expected given areas reaching further outside the core climatological favored areas for svr/tor. 
 

One interesting part for MN, though, was the boundary between Grand Folks & Duluth CWA. Particularly pronounced between Wadena & Cass Counties. You’ll see it immediately.  There’s definitely more county boundary differences that become noticeable but that one jumped out to me quite a bit compared to the rest of the field I looked at.