Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[wthrmn654]

Wind advisory now issued for Friday, not today

[wthrmn654]

Sometimes I scratch my head with the NWS thinking

[winterwx21]

It appears that we're done with the significant rain here now. 2.38" ... a much needed major soaking. 

[wthrmn654]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
225 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
 
NJZ006-108-NYZ072-074-075-176>179-301915-
Hudson NJ-Eastern Union NJ-Northern Queens NY-Southern Queens NY-
New York (Manhattan) NY-Northern Nassau NY-Kings (Brooklyn) NY-
Richmond (Staten Is.) NY-Southern Nassau NY-
225 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT HUDSON...SOUTHEASTERN UNION...QUEENS...
RICHMOND...KINGS...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 224 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers over Oakwood,
or near The Verrazano Narrows Bridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coney Island and The Verrazano Narrows Bridge around 230 PM EDT.
  Flatbush around 235 PM EDT.
  Canarsie around 240 PM EDT.
  Howard Beach around 245 PM EDT.
  Rockaway Beach and Kennedy Airport around 250 PM EDT.
  Jamaica and Valley Stream around 255 PM EDT.
  Lynbrook and Elmont around 300 PM EDT.
  Garden City and Mineola around 305 PM EDT.

[steve392]

Is this system over performing?  Been non-stop heavy rains all afternoon. 

[FPizz]

Squall line looks pretty on radar

[JonClaw]

Big gusts coming through Downtown Brooklyn now!

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Models looking pretty good in general.  They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

Okay, maybe not.  Everything looks to be moving out when forecasts called for the heaviest between this afternoon and this evening?

[steve392]

Did this system tap tropical moisture from Melissa? 

 

[Gravity Wave]

Very heavy rain with this squall line, not much wind though.

[FPizz]

1.70" total

[Brian5671]

Looks like its mostly done after the squall line?

[MJO812]

Its insane outside 

Torrential rain and gusty winds

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like its mostly done after the squall line?

I thought it was supposed to be done tonight .

[Sharknado123]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I thought it was supposed to be done tonight .

HRRR and Nam have a tiny coastal low popping over the city bringing 1-2 hours of rain/gusty showers around dinner

[dmillz25]

Absolutely pouring here

[dmillz25]

The street up the block from me must be flooding right now

[Stormlover74]

Ewr over an inch in the past hour

[hudsonvalley21]

1.24” as of 3 pm.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The street up the block from me must be flooding right now

Same here

Haven't seen this in a long time 

[Brian5671]

3K nam yesterday nailed the higher rain totals-other models had a big screw zone over the area

[wdrag]

23 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Is this system over performing?  Been non-stop heavy rains all afternoon. 

NOT overperforming... performing very close as modeled 5-6 days ago. 

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like its mostly done after the squall line?

Unless another stream of moisture sets up Id say yes

[MJO812]

Flooding everywhere in Brooklyn

[wdrag]

Sandy Hook briefly leveled at Moderate flood level 7.7' MLLW a few minutes ago.  a 3' surge due to lowered pressure and timing of max gust 50 MPH inflow. 

[Tatamy]

Stations that I follow on Fire Island are measuring wind gusts of 40-50 mph this afternoon.  My max gust so far today is 41 mph at Cherry Grove.

[nycwinter]

is central park going to make it to the 1-2 inches as predicted?

[Sharknado123]

Just now, nycwinter said:

is central park going to make it to the 1-2 inches as predicted?

Central park is already at 1 inch I believe since this morning

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

is central park going to make it to the 1-2 inches as predicted?

Easily

[ag3]

Torrential rain