November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What is NYC's average high temps for Nov 27-30th?  What does the Euro say those 4 days are supposed to be?  My work comp blocks weatherbell so I can't see it.  I know you're good looking up data though, so can you fill me in?  I was thinking it showed a bit below normal temps but maybe that changed.

The 28th at the park averages 50/39

[Sundog]

0z Euro was pretty cold for Thanksgiving weekend in NYC

Mid 40s for Thanksgiving, low 40s for Black Friday, mid 30s for Saturday. 

[eduggs]

Wow that's an historic trof across the west coast on the 12z CMC in the long range. I've noticed ULLs are forming and deepening right along the west coast this fall and then tracking southward along the full length of the California coastline. If you loop 500mb it's been happening and is forecast to happen over and over. I feel like this tendency was noticed the past two winters. And sure, ULLs getting stuck in the southwest has been going on forever. But this recent propensity seems more pronounced and repetitive than in the past.

Does anyone know why this is happening? Is it some kind of frictional effect or landmass-Ocean interface effect... maybe combined with Pacific Ocean temperatures and a strong Pac Jet? Or is this typical upper- & mid- level behavior and I've just never noticed it before?