November 2025 OBS Discussion

[RU848789]

On 11/14/2025 at 11:34 AM, Sundog said:

It's bad luck I agree, JFK on the ocean had TWO events over 4 inches in February 2024, one of them over 6 inches. 

Yep and we had 6" on 2/12/24 and 11.25" on 2/17/24 (the CNJ mesoscale deathband snow)

[bluewave]

On 11/14/2025 at 9:55 AM, eduggs said:

There is a significant lag between an increase in global atmospheric CO2 & CH4 concentrations and an increase in mean continental surface atmospheric temperature. Most data sources show global temperature increased most significantly after about 1920. In the US, there appears to have been mean warming in the early part of the 20th century, following by cooling through ~ the 1970s, followed by the period of pronounced warming that we're in. The 1930s were warmer than parts of earlier centuries for sure. This was likely the result of a combination of astronomical and anthropogenic climate factors. The rate and magnitude of current warming is much more significant than previously observed during historical times.

The data that bluewave showed does suggest that low snow years in the 1930s were more related to total precipitation than to temperature compared to the present. Though temperature in the 1930s was likely more of a factor than during the 18th or early 19th centuries. And I suspect persistent under-measurement of snowfall was also a factor.

We did get one very warm year in that mix during 31-32. But there was no sustained warmth like we have had over the last decade.

The interesting thing is that even the smaller temperature rise from 1870 to 1940 when emissions first began to rise saw a significant decline in snowfall. For the first time we have a full 30 year weather dataset prior to this period.

From 1843-1844 to 1872-1873 the 30 year climate mean snowfall at Newark was 43.7” of snow a year. Only 2 years with under 20” of snow with 10 years averaging over 50” of snow. The winter average temperature was 30.8°.

So more conformation that areas near the coast require a winter average temperature near or under freezing for a 50” season. The current 7 snowfall season period at Newark has featured a 17.3” average snowfall with a 37.5° average temperature.

So areas just west of the current I-95 corridor probably averaged 45-50” a season from parts of Somerset across Morris. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.8	9.1	12.1	12.6	7.3	1.8	43.7
1843-1844	0.0	1.3	9.5	5.5	13.5	1.8	0.0	31.6
1844-1845	0.0	0.5	6.5	5.5	20.5	5.5	T	38.5
1845-1846	0.0	T	8.5	16.5	28.0	T	T	53.0
1846-1847	0.0	1.5	12.0	10.0	21.0	4.3	0.5	49.3
1847-1848	0.0	T	6.0	T	8.0	5.0	T	19.0
1848-1849	0.0	1.3	24.0	T	13.0	6.0	0.0	44.3
1849-1850	0.0	0.0	11.0	3.0	T	9.0	8.0	31.0
1850-1851	0.0	0.0	6.0	2.5	3.5	10.5	2.0	24.5
1851-1852	0.0	2.0	7.0	20.0	14.0	16.0	4.3	63.3
1852-1853	0.0	T	T	15.5	2.3	7.0	T	24.8
1853-1854	0.0	M	6.0	15.0	23.5	2.8	13.5	60.8
1854-1855	0.0	T	8.0	18.5	16.0	2.5	T	45.0
1855-1856	0.0	T	9.0	32.8	5.0	11.0	0.0	57.8
1856-1857	0.0	0.5	4.3	28.1	2.1	17.0	0.0	52.0
1857-1858	0.0	T	4.5	1.8	10.5	10.5	T	27.3
1858-1859	0.0	5.5	6.5	12.3	15.8	6.0	T	46.1
1859-1860	3.0	0.0	5.1	11.3	25.0	2.5	T	46.9
1860-1861	0.0	T	7.0	20.6	1.3	17.0	2.0	47.9
1861-1862	0.0	1.0	1.0	12.0	25.5	4.6	6.0	50.1
1862-1863	0.0	6.5	8.0	10.0	13.0	10.9	1.8	50.2
1863-1864	0.0	T	4.3	7.0	1.0	7.0	T	19.3
1864-1865	0.0	0.3	26.0	10.5	12.5	T	0.0	49.3
1865-1866	0.0	0.0	13.1	11.8	8.0	1.5	T	34.4
1866-1867	0.0	T	7.0	23.5	15.5	17.5	T	63.5
1867-1868	0.0	T	15.5	23.3	14.0	15.0	7.0	74.8
1868-1869	T	0.0	9.5	11.0	12.0	5.0	0.6	38.1
1869-1870	T	T	8.1	1.8	8.5	11.0	3.0	32.4
1870-1871	0.0	T	5.0	16.0	16.1	1.3	2.0	40.4
1871-1872	0.0	T	8.5	2.0	5.0	8.5	T	24.0
1872-1873	0.0	4.0	25.1	14.1	23.3	2.2	3.0	71.7

 

[wdrag]

sighhh.... maybe something will emerge prior to Dec 7,  but for now am not excited by  any possibility of a widespread 2+" snowfall for the I84 corridor . Ensembles are dead through Dec 1 and it will probably take awhile for the pattern to become more favorable after that. Oh well... guess all we have is a couple of episodes of scattered gusts 45+ MPH to witness for the rest of this month. Sort of boring and uninspiring for decorating but good weather to occasionally clean up outside. Need to add the hop in the step via our own heart. 

 

I added on at 752AM... that second week in Dec is our typical NYC CP first measurable.  still a sigh... not like it used to be here in nw NJ.  

[SACRUS]

 

56 / 43 partly cloudy and had 0.09 of rain - heavier showers/storms to the north.  Warm / windy then 36 hours of cooler Mon - Tue before an overall warm - vert warm vs normal setup beyond there.   Warmest looks to be 2 days later this week 21 - 23 and again around the 25-27th.  

 

[bluewave]

NYC and LGA may have to wait until December for their first freeze with the big trough taking up residence next few weeks out West. 
 

New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Mocldy   Mocldy   Ptcldy
     /54    36/45    34/48    36/49    39/52    45/58    49/58
      /10    10/00    00/00    20/20    20/20    40/40    40/40

   LaGuardia Airport, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Sunny    Ptcldy   Mocldy   Mocldy   Ptcldy
     /55    37/45    35/48    37/49    40/51    45/57    49/58
      /10    10/00    00/00    20/20    20/20    30/40    40/40

 

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did get one very warm year in that mix during 31-32. But there was no sustained warmth like we have had over the last decade.

The interesting thing is that even the smaller temperature rise from 1870 to 1940 when emissions first began to rise saw a significant decline in snowfall. For the first time we have a full 30 year weather dataset prior to this period.

From 1843-1844 to 1872-1873 the 30 year climate mean snowfall at Newark was 43.7” of snow a year. Only 2 years with under 20” of snow with 10 years averaging over 50” of snow. The winter average temperature was 30.8°.

So more conformation that areas near the coast require a winter average temperature near or under freezing for a 50” season. The current 7 snowfall season period at Newark has featured a 17.3” average snowfall with a 37.5° average temperature.

So areas just west of the current I-95 corridor probably averaged 45-50” a season from parts of Somerset across Morris. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.8	9.1	12.1	12.6	7.3	1.8	43.7
1843-1844	0.0	1.3	9.5	5.5	13.5	1.8	0.0	31.6
1844-1845	0.0	0.5	6.5	5.5	20.5	5.5	T	38.5
1845-1846	0.0	T	8.5	16.5	28.0	T	T	53.0
1846-1847	0.0	1.5	12.0	10.0	21.0	4.3	0.5	49.3
1847-1848	0.0	T	6.0	T	8.0	5.0	T	19.0
1848-1849	0.0	1.3	24.0	T	13.0	6.0	0.0	44.3
1849-1850	0.0	0.0	11.0	3.0	T	9.0	8.0	31.0
1850-1851	0.0	0.0	6.0	2.5	3.5	10.5	2.0	24.5
1851-1852	0.0	2.0	7.0	20.0	14.0	16.0	4.3	63.3
1852-1853	0.0	T	T	15.5	2.3	7.0	T	24.8
1853-1854	0.0	M	6.0	15.0	23.5	2.8	13.5	60.8
1854-1855	0.0	T	8.0	18.5	16.0	2.5	T	45.0
1855-1856	0.0	T	9.0	32.8	5.0	11.0	0.0	57.8
1856-1857	0.0	0.5	4.3	28.1	2.1	17.0	0.0	52.0
1857-1858	0.0	T	4.5	1.8	10.5	10.5	T	27.3
1858-1859	0.0	5.5	6.5	12.3	15.8	6.0	T	46.1
1859-1860	3.0	0.0	5.1	11.3	25.0	2.5	T	46.9
1860-1861	0.0	T	7.0	20.6	1.3	17.0	2.0	47.9
1861-1862	0.0	1.0	1.0	12.0	25.5	4.6	6.0	50.1
1862-1863	0.0	6.5	8.0	10.0	13.0	10.9	1.8	50.2
1863-1864	0.0	T	4.3	7.0	1.0	7.0	T	19.3
1864-1865	0.0	0.3	26.0	10.5	12.5	T	0.0	49.3
1865-1866	0.0	0.0	13.1	11.8	8.0	1.5	T	34.4
1866-1867	0.0	T	7.0	23.5	15.5	17.5	T	63.5
1867-1868	0.0	T	15.5	23.3	14.0	15.0	7.0	74.8
1868-1869	T	0.0	9.5	11.0	12.0	5.0	0.6	38.1
1869-1870	T	T	8.1	1.8	8.5	11.0	3.0	32.4
1870-1871	0.0	T	5.0	16.0	16.1	1.3	2.0	40.4
1871-1872	0.0	T	8.5	2.0	5.0	8.5	T	24.0
1872-1873	0.0	4.0	25.1	14.1	23.3	2.2	3.0	71.7

 

Where were these readings actually taken because obviously there were no airports for a very long time. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  74 (2005)
NYC:  72 (1928)
LGA: 72 (1990)
JFK: 72 (2001)



Lows: 

EWR: 15 (1933)
NYC: 17 (1933)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

1933: Cold wave 19° at DCA and 17° on 17th The low temperature of 10 °F is the lowest ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November and occurred also on November 29th 1930. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC)

1958 - More than six inches of snow fell at Tucson, AZ. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959 - The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln MT reported a reading of 53 degrees below zero, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was one degree above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - High winds and heavy snow created blizzard conditions across parts of eastern Colorado. Wind gusts reached 68 mph at Pueblo, and snowfall totals ranged up to 37 inches at Echo Lake. In Wyoming, the temperature dipped to 14 degrees below zero at Laramie. Strong thunderstorms in Louisiana drenched Alexandria with 16.65 inches of rain in thirty hours, with an unofficial total of 21.21 inches north of Olla. Flash flooding in Louisiana caused five to six million dollars damage. (15th-16th) (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system in the north central U.S. produced high winds across the Great Lakes Region, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Chicago IL. Heavy snow blanketed much of Minnesota, with eleven inches reported at International Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and gusty winds invaded the north central U.S. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced wind chill readings as cold as 25 degrees below zero, and blizzard conditions were reported in Nebraska during the late morning hours. High winds around a powerful low pressure system produced squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Whitefish Point MI, and snowfall totals in Michigan ranged up to 19 inches at Hart, north of Muskegon. (15th-16th) (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - An F-3 tornado strikes Riegelwood, NC causing eight deaths and twenty injuries

[SACRUS]

 

7 Years ago

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/November15162018_Snow

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

7 Years ago

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/November15162018_Snow

 

From the Bronx:

[nycwinter]

landlord cranked on the heat it's so hot had to use the a.c and had a fan on me all night long..

[Sundog]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the Bronx:

The snow came down furiously in the late afternoon/evening. I have some videos from then and I recently rewatched them and remembered how heavy it was coming down. 

[bluewave]

Strong winds continue to be the big story this month with all the lows racing through the Eastern Great Lakes and New England. 
 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC and LGA may have to wait until December for their first freeze with the big trough taking up residence next few weeks out West. 
 

New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Mocldy   Mocldy   Ptcldy
     /54    36/45    34/48    36/49    39/52    45/58    49/58
      /10    10/00    00/00    20/20    20/20    40/40    40/40

   LaGuardia Airport, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Sunny    Ptcldy   Mocldy   Mocldy   Ptcldy
     /55    37/45    35/48    37/49    40/51    45/57    49/58
      /10    10/00    00/00    20/20    20/20    30/40    40/40

 

They already had snow and this seems not that uncommon for them to have snow before the first freeze. Heat Island.

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Yep and we had 6" on 2/12/24 and 11.25" on 2/17/24 (the CNJ mesoscale deathband snow)

2000 through 2018 seemed like every single snow event at least clipped central park, mimicking 1955 through 1969. 

1970 through 1999 it was the complete opposite where it felt like snow was impossible to come by for central park. Mimicking 2019 through today.

In fact the 30 year central park snowfall average for 1970 through 1999 is not far off from 2019 through last winter. 

Not saying this period will last 30 years as well, however, there were 5 good winters in that 30 year period, so we should see a few until the next good period arrives (we already had 2020/2021, so just 4 more above average snowfall winters and we match 1970 through 1999).

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

The snow came down furiously in the late afternoon/evening. I have some videos from then and I recently rewatched them and remembered how heavy it was coming down. 

That storm and the afternoon snowstorm just before St. Patrick’s Day back in March, 2018 were the hardest I ever saw it snow in my life. Both were literal whiteouts for hours 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

The snow came down furiously in the late afternoon/evening. I have some videos from then and I recently rewatched them and remembered how heavy it was coming down. 

Was a great storm but that was it for the winter

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

landlord cranked on the heat it's so hot had to use the a.c and had a fan on me all night long..

Thats wonderful

 

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, lee59 said:

They already had snow and this seems not that uncommon for them to have snow before the first freeze. Heat Island.

It’s all proportional since numerous stations outside the heat island haven’t had their first hard freeze yet. So more a lack of cold air this fall. The strong winds have made it seem colder than it has actually been.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s all proportional since numerous stations outside the heat island haven’t had their first hard freeze yet. So more a lack of cold air this fall so far. 

?  Everyone has besides the heat island

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2000 through 2018 seemed like every single snow event at least clipped central park, mimicking 1955 through 1969. 

1970 through 1999 it was the complete opposite where it felt like snow was impossible to come by for central park. Mimicking 2019 through today.

In fact the 30 year central park snowfall average for 1970 through 1999 is not far off from 2019 through last winter. 

Not saying this period will last 30 years as well, however, there were 5 good winters in that 30 year period, so we should see a few until the next good period arrives (we already had 2020/2021, so just 4 more above average snowfall winters and we match 1970 through 1999).

What sucks for us is that it's warmer now. 

I'd rather have colder averages and take my chances with storm tracks. 

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

?  Everyone has besides the heat island

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either.

The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either.

The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is a first since 1999.

How are the SSTs off the coast of Islip?

Aren't they perpetually above normal? Islip might not be a good location to use as a metric anymore since they're tainted by the warm water. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

7 Years ago

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/November15162018_Snow

 

The classic S-N moving overrunning event...the models even today underestimate those events here, especially from central LI westward though the Euro did well it was somewhat ignored in favor of the the NAM/GFS.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How are the SSTs off the coast of Islip?

Aren't they perpetually above normal? Islip might not be a good location to use as a metric anymore since they're tainted by the warm water. 

Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall. 

 

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall. 

 

I thought even on radiational cooling nights, the water can still influence the air temps nearby. 

For example, in the fall, on radiational cooling nights, being less than a mile from the water I will be a few degrees warmer than places in east Central Queens, away from both the Sound and the Atlantic. 

And it's not a matter of more or less urbanity, both locations are basically the same look wise. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I thought even on radiational cooling nights, the water can still influence the air temps nearby. 

For example, in the fall, on radiational cooling nights, being less than a mile from the water I will be a few degrees warmer than places in east Central Queens, away from both the Sound and the Atlantic. 

And it's not a matter of more or less urbanity, both locations are basically the same look wise. 

Maybe if you are right on the water like in Long Beach. But ISP is enough distance from the water that they can radiate fairly well. I radiate very well here and I am closer to the water than ISP. How cold any given location gets during radiational cooling relative to their local benchmarks is more a function of how cold the overall  airmass is.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Was a great storm but that was it for the winter

Central part had 10 inches of snow between two systems in March.

[psv88]

43 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I thought even on radiational cooling nights, the water can still influence the air temps nearby. 

For example, in the fall, on radiational cooling nights, being less than a mile from the water I will be a few degrees warmer than places in east Central Queens, away from both the Sound and the Atlantic. 

And it's not a matter of more or less urbanity, both locations are basically the same look wise. 

Islip is like 5 miles from the water. West Hampton is much closer to the water and is the best radiator on the island 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

What sucks for us is that it's warmer now. 

I'd rather have colder averages and take my chances with storm tracks. 

 

We still have enough cold air. We may lose a few inches on changeover events, however offset that with more intense storms with higher moisture. In theory, IF the SE Ridge is truly more powerful, less suppressed events. 

I don't think we will average less snow than 1970 through 1999, and if we do it will be due to randomness.

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

The snow came down furiously in the late afternoon/evening. I have some videos from then and I recently rewatched them and remembered how heavy it was coming down. 

Took me 3 hours to go from river head to Commack. The LIE was a total disaster. It’s normally a 35 min ride