November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. 

Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.25 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. 

Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.25 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12
1	1394	1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16
2	1383	2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12
3	1063	1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27
4	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
5	794	1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15
6	743	1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21
7	742	1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03
8	687	1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06
9	685	1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08
10	680	1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Days with 4” of snow
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	0	0
2023-2024	0	0
2022-2023	0	0
2021-2022	2	0
2020-2021	4	0
2019-2020	0	0
2018-2019	2	0
2017-2018	5	0
2016-2017	3	0
2015-2016	1	0
2014-2015	6	0
2013-2014	5	0
2012-2013	4	0
2011-2012	1	0
2010-2011	6	0
2009-2010	5	0

 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12
1	1394	1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16
2	1383	2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12
3	1063	1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27
4	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
5	794	1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15
6	743	1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21
7	742	1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03
8	687	1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06
9	685	1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08
10	680	1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Days with 4” of snow
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	0	0
2023-2024	0	0
2022-2023	0	0
2021-2022	2	0
2020-2021	4	0
2019-2020	0	0
2018-2019	2	0
2017-2018	5	0
2016-2017	3	0
2015-2016	1	0
2014-2015	6	0
2013-2014	5	0
2012-2013	4	0
2011-2012	1	0
2010-2011	6	0
2009-2010	5	0

 

I agree. I don't see how the record won't be broken. 

[nycwinter]

so from February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932 their was no climate change back then why the lack of a 4 inch snowfall is it because you cannot predict weather when it will snow and how much?

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

so from February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932 their was no climate change back then why the lack of a 4 inch snowfall is it because you cannot predict weather when it will snow and how much?

Bad luck back then.

Still bad luck today but you also have averages warmer which increases the odds of a shitty record like this being broken. 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

so from February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932 their was no climate change back then why the lack of a 4 inch snowfall is it because you cannot predict weather when it will snow and how much?

There is a difference from too dry for much snow back then vs too warm for much snow now.

The current 7 year snowfall average is 14.9”in NYC with a winter average temperature of 37.4° and 11.29” precipitation.

The 7 year period ending 1932 in NYC featured 16.2” of snow with a winter average temperature of 34.7” and 9.66” of precipitation.

So this current run is a function of warming winters and storm tracks vs a cyclical dry pattern back then.

NYC was able to follow that low snowfall period with a nice rebound in snowfall the following seasons. But we are much warmer now so it’s less likely we see a 50”+ season and 3 consecutive winters averaging under 32.0°. Plus it’s unlikely we see a Fenruary as cold as 1934 in the coming years.

Snowfall 

1932-1933	27.0	0
1933-1934	52.0	0
1934-1935	33.8	0
1935-1936	33.2	0

Average winter temperature 

1932-1933	37.8	0
1933-1934	29.1	0
1934-1935	31.1	0
1935-1936	28.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	19.9	0
2	1885	22.6	0
3	2015	23.9	0
4	1895	24.3	0
5	1905	24.8	0
6	1904	25.1	0
7	1875	25.2	1
8	1914	25.4	0
9	1979	25.5	0
10	1936	25.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	-15	0
2	1943	-8	0
3	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
4	1896	-5	0
5	1895	-4	0
-	1886	-4	0

 

[Brian5671]

29 here this AM solid freeze

[bluewave]

With the lack of significant cold in our forecast for the rest of the month, it will be interesting too see if NYC-LGA has to wait until December for their first freeze. 

...New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Rain     Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy
     /50    36/52    50/56    38/47    36/48    35/49    35/49
      /00    00/20    90/50    00/00    00/20    20/10    10/10

EPS Nov 17-24 forecast 

Nov 24 to Dec 1 forecast

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

so from February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932 their was no climate change back then why the lack of a 4 inch snowfall is it because you cannot predict weather when it will snow and how much?

Snow events are synoptic and there is a lot of stochastic variability. Seasonal snowfall has a cyclical component and also a lot of stochastic variability. Long-term averages reflect climate. A warming climate has an impact, but NYC’s climate is far from a degree of warmth to largely or fully explain the ongoing snowfall slump. It has a marginal impact, but stochastic variability is primarily responsible.

[Sundog]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the lack of significant cold in our forecast for the rest of the month, it will be interesting too see if NYC-LGA has to wait until December for their first freeze. 

...New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Rain     Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy
     /50    36/52    50/56    38/47    36/48    35/49    35/49
      /00    00/20    90/50    00/00    00/20    20/10    10/10

EPS Nov 17-24 forecast 

Nov 24 to Dec 1 forecast

 

First freeze for NYC is a fake stat anyway. LGA didn't go below freezing until Novembver 26th in the 93-94 winter for example. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Bad luck back then.

Still bad luck today but you also have averages warmer which increases the odds of a shitty record like this being broken. 

I don't really care about NYC, but places that are close by this isn't the case, so they are more the exception to this "record."  Dec 20/21st last year and 1/19/25 multiple places close to the city had over 4" of snow.  Even with a bit of warming, it has been more bad luck.  Warmer places in SNJ got over 4" 2x last winter as well.  The last page back, where NYC snow totals through history were posted for NYC, from 1970-2002 there were only 4 winters over 30". Then 2002/03 to now, 12!  Some people's minds I think got totally warped thinking we live in a snowy place.  

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12
1	1394	1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16
2	1383	2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12
3	1063	1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27
4	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
5	794	1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15
6	743	1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21
7	742	1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03
8	687	1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06
9	685	1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08
10	680	1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10

 

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I don't see how the record won't be broken. 

sort descending. 2024-2025 0 0 2023-2024 0 0 2022-2023 0 0 2021-2022 2 0 2020-2021 4 0 2019-2020 0 0 2018-2019 2 0 2017-2018 5 0 2016-2017 3 0 2015-2016 1 0 2014-2015 6 0 2013-2014 5 0 2012-2013 4 0 2011-2012 1 0 2010-2011 6 0 2009-2010 5 0

 

How far beyond the record will we go. 1415 days? 1430? More? Time will tell.

[wdrag]

23 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

good for folks who are traveling for the holiday and long weekend

so far...   rain may be a factor and wind...  next wind event for us Sunday afternoon.... another marginal advisory situation... looks like G40-50 MPH.

[anthonymm]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. 

Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.25 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Wow didn't realize the late 20s early 30s sucked that badly for snow in nyc. I wonder if at that time there were doomers like bluewave saying the mean may permanently change to 15" per year lol.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

so from February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932 their was no climate change back then why the lack of a 4 inch snowfall is it because you cannot predict weather when it will snow and how much?

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There is a difference from too dry for much snow back then vs too warm for much snow now.

The current 7 year snowfall average is 14.9”in NYC with a winter average temperature of 37.4° and 11.29” precipitation.

The 7 year period ending 1932 in NYC featured 16.2” of snow with a winter average temperature of 34.7” and 9.66” of precipitation.

So this current run is a function of warming winters and storm tracks vs a cyclical dry pattern back then.

NYC was able to follow that low snowfall period with a nice rebound in snowfall the following seasons. But we are much warmer now so it’s less likely we see a 50”+ season and 3 consecutive winters averaging under 32.0°. Plus it’s unlikely we see a Fenruary as cold as 1934 in the coming years.

Snowfall 

1932-1933	27.0	0
1933-1934	52.0	0
1934-1935	33.8	0
1935-1936	33.2	0

Average winter temperature 

1932-1933	37.8	0
1933-1934	29.1	0
1934-1935	31.1	0
1935-1936	28.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	19.9	0
2	1885	22.6	0
3	2015	23.9	0
4	1895	24.3	0
5	1905	24.8	0
6	1904	25.1	0
7	1875	25.2	1
8	1914	25.4	0
9	1979	25.5	0
10	1936	25.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	-15	0
2	1943	-8	0
3	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
4	1896	-5	0
5	1895	-4	0
-	1886	-4	0

 

The entire premise is incorrect.  There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

The entire premise is incorrect.  There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so that would about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

And the current snow drought is WAY more impressive than that one. Maybe there weren't any 4" snows, but there were certainly more 1" snows. NYC has seen ~50% less snowfall over the last 3 years than it did from 1930-1932. Even the 3-year period from 2022-2024 saw a little more than 10% less than 1930-32. Note the 1869 value shown below is for 1 year only.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There is a difference from too dry for much snow back then vs too warm for much snow now.

The current 7 year snowfall average is 14.9”in NYC with a winter average temperature of 37.4° and 11.29” precipitation.

The 7 year period ending 1932 in NYC featured 16.2” of snow with a winter average temperature of 34.7” and 9.66” of precipitation.

So this current run is a function of warming winters and storm tracks vs a cyclical dry pattern back then.

NYC was able to follow that low snowfall period with a nice rebound in snowfall the following seasons. But we are much warmer now so it’s less likely we see a 50”+ season and 3 consecutive winters averaging under 32.0°. Plus it’s unlikely we see a Fenruary as cold as 1934 in the coming years.

Snowfall 

1932-1933	27.0	0
1933-1934	52.0	0
1934-1935	33.8	0
1935-1936	33.2	0

Average winter temperature 

1932-1933	37.8	0
1933-1934	29.1	0
1934-1935	31.1	0
1935-1936	28.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	19.9	0
2	1885	22.6	0
3	2015	23.9	0
4	1895	24.3	0
5	1905	24.8	0
6	1904	25.1	0
7	1875	25.2	1
8	1914	25.4	0
9	1979	25.5	0
10	1936	25.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1934	-15	0
2	1943	-8	0
3	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
4	1896	-5	0
5	1895	-4	0
-	1886	-4	0

 

11 inches of precip versus 9 is really not that much. I don't really think you can chalk up the lack of snow in the late 20s early 30s to dryness. It was likely just shit luck with the storm tracks being west of the region.  Of course one can argue with climate change it's more likely we get these warmer storm tracks.

[anthonymm]

50 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I don't really care about NYC, but places that are close by this isn't the case, so they are more the exception to this "record."  Dec 20/21st last year and 1/19/25 multiple places close to the city had over 4" of snow.  Even with a bit of warming, it has been more bad luck.  Warmer places in SNJ got over 4" 2x last winter as well.  The last page back, where NYC snow totals through history were posted for NYC, from 1970-2002 there were only 4 winters over 30". Then 2002/03 to now, 12!  Some people's minds I think got totally warped thinking we live in a snowy place.  

pretty sure LGA got a 4" event last winter.

[ForestHillWx]

I’ll never understand the obsession with CO2 concentrations as the key determinative factor of whether or not it can or will snow again in the tri-state area when there so many other factors at play. Current CO2 levels are .043% of atmospheric content; below .02%, plant life, and life as we know it, ceases to exist. 

This is not to say I believe the climate is static; far from it, as Long Island itself is a glacial moraine. Nor do I believe we should not be looking into more efficient sources of long term viability in terms of power, as, somewhat ironically, we are all contributing to “AGW” every time we long onto this forum. 

Now back to my cave…

[anthonymm]

51 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I don't really care about NYC, but places that are close by this isn't the case, so they are more the exception to this "record."  Dec 20/21st last year and 1/19/25 multiple places close to the city had over 4" of snow.  Even with a bit of warming, it has been more bad luck.  Warmer places in SNJ got over 4" 2x last winter as well.  The last page back, where NYC snow totals through history were posted for NYC, from 1970-2002 there were only 4 winters over 30". Then 2002/03 to now, 12!  Some people's minds I think got totally warped thinking we live in a snowy place.  

Great point. I think it would be hard to argue cape may has a better climo for snow than central park. Yet they got multiple 4" events last winter. Central park is has just been very very unlucky recently.

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

The entire premise is incorrect.  There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

There is a significant lag between an increase in global atmospheric CO2 & CH4 concentrations and an increase in mean continental surface atmospheric temperature. Most data sources show global temperature increased most significantly after about 1920. In the US, there appears to have been mean warming in the early part of the 20th century, following by cooling through ~ the 1970s, followed by the period of pronounced warming that we're in. The 1930s were warmer than parts of earlier centuries for sure. This was likely the result of a combination of astronomical and anthropogenic climate factors. The rate and magnitude of current warming is much more significant than previously observed during historical times.

The data that bluewave showed does suggest that low snow years in the 1930s were more related to total precipitation than to temperature compared to the present. Though temperature in the 1930s was likely more of a factor than during the 18th or early 19th centuries. And I suspect persistent under-measurement of snowfall was also a factor.

[psv88]

32.8 this morning. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Great point. I think it would be hard to argue cape may has a better climo for snow than central park. Yet they got multiple 4" events last winter. Central park is has just been very very unlucky recently.

But there’s a reason for the “bad luck” and that’s the Pacific jet is very unfavorable for good storm tracks here. We saw the western ridge keep getting knocked down and therefore storms couldn’t turn the corner last winter, or we would have too much of a SE ridge or the SE ridge link up with the Greenland block which causes inland tracks. 

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

But there’s a reason for the “bad luck” and that’s the Pacific jet is very unfavorable for good storm tracks here. We saw the western ridge keep getting knocked down and therefore storms couldn’t turn the corner last winter, or we would have too much of a SE ridge or the SE ridge link up with the Greenland block which causes inland tracks. 

So cape may is somehow immune to the pac jet? Interesting.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Wow didn't realize the late 20s early 30s sucked that badly for snow in nyc. I wonder if at that time there were doomers like bluewave saying the mean may permanently change to 15" per year lol.

I don’t believe one is a “doomer” to point out the risk of a long-term decline in seasonal snowfall. It won’t happen all at once. It will be long-term in nature. Even then, there will continue to be periodic snowy winters and occasional big snowstorms. Even a much warmer climate allows for such events. The historic Deep South snowstorm last winter is an example.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the lack of significant cold in our forecast for the rest of the month, it will be interesting too see if NYC-LGA has to wait until December for their first freeze. 

...New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Rain     Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy
     /50    36/52    50/56    38/47    36/48    35/49    35/49
      /00    00/20    90/50    00/00    00/20    20/10    10/10

EPS Nov 17-24 forecast 

Nov 24 to Dec 1 forecast

 

Impressive cold early next week?