November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. 

Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.25 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.