November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a mild day with highs reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front could touch off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours.

Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s Thursday and Friday before milder conditions return for the weekend.

Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.81 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.343 today. 

 

[Sundog]

Not that I believe it (yet) but the Euro had NYC itself below freezing next Tuesday morning. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

15 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Fox are there as well.  Deer have been spotted on the North Shore Tower golf course. 

First Sunken Meadow, now North Shore Tower.  Deer must like the golf courses because they've seen the aim of the people at those places and know they're perfectly safe.

[wdrag]

00z/5 CMCE and EPS offer a widespread light snow cover to the I84 corridor around 11/10.  Could be this amplifying 5H trough crossing the east coast or the following Alberta clipper around 11/12-13.  

Also, I think at least one or 2 more wind advisory events between 11/10-11/16.

[bluewave]

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s mid-month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

Most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence. Snowcover for North America is starting the season at record low levels for this time of year. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

So most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence.
 

 

 

Looks very warm for November

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

"Looks" key word. Some people were calling for a record breaking hot October from "looking" at long range modeling. 

It also looked like October was going to be very dry and I would up with over 5 inches of precip. 

[Sundog]

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

It'll be slightly AN due to back tland forth pattern. 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

Maples really popped in color along 25A. 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this. 

[SACRUS]

 

66 / 22 here.  Winds will pick up soon.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1961)
LGA: 75 (2022)
JFK: 75 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1933)
NYC: 23 (1879)
LGA: 32 (1951)
JFK: 32 (1965)


Historical:
 

1894 - The famous Election Day snowstorm occurred in Connecticut. As much as a foot of wet snow fell, and the snow and high winds caused great damage to wires and trees. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI. (David Ludlum)

 

1894: A significant snowstorm impacted New England on November 5th through 6th. It formed off the New Jersey coast on the 5th and passed east of Connecticut with rapidly increasing heavy rain, snow, and high winds. The heavy snow and high winds caused significant damage to trees and brought down telegraph poles by the hundreds. As a result, all southern New England's telegraph and telephone services were crippled, and fallen poles and trees delayed railroad trains.

1961 - Strong Santa Ana winds fanned the flames of the Bel Air and Brentwood fires in southern California destroying many homes. At 10 PM the Los Angeles Civic Center reported a temperature of 74 degrees along with a dew point of 5 degrees. On the 6th, Burbank reported a relative humidity of three percent. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure off the California coast produced stormy weather in the southwestern U.S. Flash flooding stranded 8000 persons in the Death Valley National Park of southern California. Thunder- storms over southern Nevada produced dime size hail and wind gusts to 68 mph around Las Vegas. Unseasonably mild weather in the northeastern U.S. was replaced with snow and gale force winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system produced high winds from the Great Plains to New England, and produced heavy snow in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Knoxville TN, and reached 80 mph at Pleasant Valley VT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1988: An F1 tornado touched down south of Altoona near Hollidaysburg. Several homes were damaged with roofs torn off and broken windows, numerous trees were toppled, and garages and other outbuildings were destroyed.

1989 - Temperatures warmed into the 80s across much of Texas. Highs of 86 degrees at Abilene, Fort Worth and San Angelo were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Severe thunderstorms moved across southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, producing wind damage and several tornadoes. A tornado struck the Alabama town of Abbeville killing 2 people and injuring 25 (Associated Press).

 

2017: A classic Tornado Debris Signature (TBS) was observed in Washington County, Indiana.

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 68

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Made it to 68

67 here, now clouds took over.

[winterwx21]

I was just out in the garden and picked some peppers and pole lima beans. Still producing because we haven't had a freeze here yet. It's gonna be a close call tomorrow night. If not tomorrow night, the garden will definitely come to end end with the cold shot early next week. We'll be going below freezing Monday night. 

[donsutherland1]

As of 4 pm, the high temperature in New York City had reached 66°. That was a full 2 standard deviations above the NBM forecast from 11z, a remarkable bust. Newark was even warmer with a high of 70°.

However, this warmth will be short-lived, as a cold front is now crossing the region. In doing so, it could trigger some widely scattered showers. Most areas will remain dry.

The first half of tonight will be very windy. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours. Afterward, winds will slowly diminish.

Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s tomorrow and middle and upper 50s on Friday. The weekend will be mild with Saturday being the warmest day. Highs on Saturday will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Newark could again approach or reach 70°.

A strong cold front will then bring this season's coldest temperatures so far early next week. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +26.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today. 

 

[wdrag]

23 hours ago, Sundog said:

"Looks" key word. Some people were calling for a record breaking hot October from "looking" at long range modeling. 

It also looked like October was going to be very dry and I would up with over 5 inches of precip. 

We as a science of modeling are not good beyond two weeks... missing out on the extremes potential.  Most on here will see marked improvements later this century.  

Todays D6 is about as good as the D1 when I was kid in the late 50s. 

[wdrag]

Reminder on why threads for NYC CP may be started below advisory level expectations.  

From a weather underground publication - Nov 1 2025:

6. You should pay close attention to light snowfall forecasts too: It's human nature to focus on the snow forecasts with high amounts, or just the highest total in, say, a "three to six-inch" forecast.

But don't underestimate the hazard from light snow.

According to a study released in 2019, 54% of deadly snow-related traffic accidents in the U.S. occurred where snowfall was too light or didn't last long enough to prompt the National Weather Service to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory.

 

[wdrag]

Formidable repeatable block N Canada-Greenland to persist into the week before Thanks giving (at least the 20th). Going to be interesting.

Was all this blocking modeled beyond two weeks in advance?  I like the cool season start UA pattern. 

Can't rule out first T of mixed r-s shower CP around next Tuesday as a very sharp trough exits. Probably wont happen but am sure of first flurries much of the I84 corridor this coming Monday-Tuesday, with low power prob some light grassy accums. 

Another  wind event modeled- suggested later next week or weekend.  

[SACRUS]

 

Yesterday 11/5 Highs

 

TEB: 71
PHL: 70
EWR: 70
ACY: 69
New Brnswck: 69
BLM: 69
TTN: 67
LGA: 66
NYC: 66
ISP: 64
JFK: 63

[SACRUS]

51 / 29 winds dying down.  Cooler today - sunny / dry minly in the 50s.  Warmer Fri / Sat wit Sat maxing in the mid - upper 60s.   FRont brings rain on Sunday ahead of the trough and widespread freezing and lowest temps since last winter.  Moderation towadrs the 14th then overall near or above normal beyond there.

 

[wdrag]

Drought monitor and the classification change over the past week attached. Please click for clarity. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2024)
NYC: 80 (1948/2024)
LGA: 81  (2024)  old 75 (2022)
JFK: 75 (2015 / 2024)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (2012)
NYC: 27 (1879)
LGA:  30 (1951)
JFK: 30 (1952)


Historical:

 

1880: A Great Lakes gale wrecked or disabled a score of ships on Lake Ontario, including the “Belle Sheridan”, a collier just 10 miles from Toronto. Only one of seven crew members survived. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1951 - Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decature IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1953: A tropical depression moved east from the central Gulf of Mexico and across Florida on November 5th, accompanied by heavy rain and 30 to 40 mph winds. As it reached the Atlantic Coast and passed over the Gulf stream it rapidly intensified. At the same time, an unusual cold outbreak was developing in the Midwest and Northeast. As the storm intensified it turned sharply to the north and moisture from the storm was thrown back into the cold air mass, creating a band of snow that develop from North Carolina to New York. Snow began in Washington, DC in the early-morning hours of the 6th. A tight pressure gradient set up between the strong ocean storm and the cold high-pressure system to the north causing winds in Washington, DC of 30 mph. Old Kings Highway in Alex., Virginia was blocked by a large drifts and the total snowfall at National Airport was recorded at 6.7 inches. This is one of Washington's biggest early season snow falls, not far behind the Veteran's Day snowstorm of November 11, 1987, which piled up 11 inches in Washington. (p. 65 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  Other snowfall totals included 11 inches at Harrisburg, PA, 8.8 inches at Philadelphia, PA (their earliest snowstorm of 4 or more inches), 9 inches at Takoma Park, MD and 3 inches at Richmond, VA.  (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1953: 6.5 ins. snow at DCA and 27 mph north wind and 9.0 inches of snow was measured in Takoma Park, MD.
(Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)  Boston, Massachusetts had a severe northeast coastal storm with great coastal damage from wind and heavy rain.  (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

 

1961: Santa Ana winds in southern California downed trees, utility lines and blew 10 to 50 percent of the avocado crop from trees. Dust from the winds lowered the visibility, which led to a 16 car pileup, injuring 23 people. In addition, the winds brought the lowerest relative humidity of record to Burbank, 3 percent, and contributed to disastrous fires in the hills of the Los Angeles area.

 

1977: Several possible causes lead to the collapse of the Kelly Barnes Dam in Georgia to give way. The failure allowed a 40-acre lake to flood the Toccoa Falls College, killing 39 people and injuring 60 more.

1977: 5 to 9 inches of rain caused an earthen dam above the town of Toccoa, Georgia to burst during the pre-dawn hours of a Sunday morning, flooding the town and killing 37 people. The Toccoa Falls Bible College was flooded and several people perished there. There were many bridge and road washouts in North Georgia during the event, including 18 in Madison County GA alone. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1986: On this date through the 7th, a storm brought heavy snow across parts of the northern Rockies. Snowfall totals included: Mystic Lake, MT: 35 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 27 inches, Nye, MT: 16 inches, Burgess Junction, MT: 15 inches, Sheridan, WY: 13 inches, Pryor, MT: 9 inches, Broadus, MT: 7 inches and Billings, MT: 5 inches. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - High winds in the northeastern U.S., turning a recent warm spell into a distant memory, gusted to 63 mph at Rhode Island. Squalls resulting from the high winds produced five inches of snow at Marquette MI and seven inches at Rome NY. A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy snow to some of the higher elevations of Arizona, Colorado and Utah. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region continued to produce snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals along the shore of Lake Superior reached 24 inches, with three feet of snow reported in the Porcupine Mountain area of Upper Michigan. Marquette MI established a November record with 17.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the south central and southeastern U.S. Nine cities from Florida to Oklahoma and Texas reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. The high of 89 degrees at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas equalled their record for November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1994: San Francisco, CA set a 24-hour rainfall record with 6.19 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1996: Heavy showers and thunderstorms moved across central and southern Oklahoma on this date in 1996, and continued through the early morning of the 7th. Flash flooding occurred across many counties. Durant received up to 5 inches, as city streets became impassable with as much as two feet of water covering the roads. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

2005 - Severe thunderstorms produced a deadly tornado near Evansville, Indiana during the early morning hours of November 6. There were 23 fatalities from the tornado, with 19 of the deaths occurring in the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park located just to the southeast of the city (Associated Press). It was Indiana's deadliest tornado since the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974.

 

2005: The deadliest tornado to strike Indiana since April 3rd, 1974, occurred around 2 am. A single F3 tornado inflicted 24 fatalities, 238 injuries, and nearly 90 million dollars in damage with a path length of 41 miles. This storm moved in a northeasterly direction from just north of Smith Mills, Kentucky, to Gentryville, Indiana, and crossed the Ohio River three times. Most of the damage occurred as the tornado passed southeast of the city of Evansville, Indiana. 

2009: Gulf of Alaska: High waves, winds, and low pressure accompany a major storm sitting over the Gulf of Alaska. Weather buoy station 46082 recorded the highest winds with the storm hit 69 mph and also had waves of nearly 30 feet. Buoy station 46085 reports the lowest pressure reading at 945 mb (27.91 inches mercury, just shy of the Category 4 Hurricane classification on the old SS Scale. Along the Pacific Northwest Coast, winds hit as high as the 91 mph reading at Garibaldi, Oregon. The storm also generates a confirmed F0 tornado at Roads End, Oregon. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[psv88]

Leaves are peak now and absolutely gorgeous around here. 

[canderson]

Coming into the city for the weekend for our bimonthly Broadway weekend. How much rain is the city looking at Sunday? I really don’t want to take an umbrella and hope my rain jacket will suffice … 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Coming into the city for the weekend for our bimonthly Broadway weekend. How much rain is the city looking at Sunday? I really don’t want to take an umbrella and hope my rain jacket will suffice … 

[psv88]

Frost advisory tonight for Suffolk, westchester and S CT. 

[wdrag]

Somewhat interesting next Tue: next near 200M amplifying 5H HFC in the eastern USA for the period 10/30-11/11.  This time it amplifies too late and too far northeast - about 200M near Eastport Maine on the 11th.  

May result in our first flurries and more certainly another 45+MPH wind event (with less leaves to act as sails). 

Today is the 6th. No thread, if ever any, til at least this Saturday. Need modeling to agree more wind etc. 

 

[steve392]

So who was the big winner with wind gusts last night?  I thought my house was going to be blown over for a few seconds lol