Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It's a general observation. The October climatology for New York used to be the same as modern Scranton, PA (elev: ~1,000 feet, and inland). Mean temp (1869-1900): 55.0F in NYC; mean temp (2015-2024): 55.1F at Scranton. And there have been several 1"+ snows in Scranton in October. Plus, the NYC figures are probably artificially elevated due to UHI, which is minimal in Scranton. The actual climate was probably colder. The main difference is proximity to the ocean even if averages are or were the same. October water temps are very bad no matter what era you are referring to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago There are so many factors that affect seasonal snowfall averages that we can't just take monthly temps and draw a straight line to snowfall averages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Do you think that back in the 1800s at some point DC averaged around 70 inches of snow though? And NYC averaged around 50 inches of snow? I can buy NYC averaging around 40 inches back in the early to mid 1800s so I guess that's close enough. I'm not familiar with DC climo to hazard a guess, but the highest I would go for them is between 30-35 inches of snow back in the early to mid 1800s. No, because they don't get upslope snows, which are what pile up on the western slopes of the Appalachians. It looks DC used to average around 2 feet per year, but that's still substantially more than today. They haven't had 2 feet of snow in any winter in the last 11 years. And the early numbers are probably an undercount as they were mostly just daily observations after the storm had ended, versus today's systematized observations of reporting peak accumulation in each six-hour period. UCAR estimates a bias of 15-20 percent, which could be even greater if there is missing/bad data. See: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News So it's reasonable to believe that, in the absence of human intervention, DC should be receiving 25-30+ inches of snow each winter. It's hard to imagine the depth of snow that should have fallen over the last 100 years but failed to fall due to human interventions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12Z Canadian now keeps storm offshore for the most part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Canadian now keeps storm offshore for the most part Euro as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: 2019 was several degrees cooler overall. 2007 had that insane string of upper 80s and finished around +6 for most of us How did 54 compare vs 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 54 October 1954 Newark Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) October 1 83 70 0.00 0.0 October 2 86 69 0.00 0.0 October 3 81 66 0.13 0.0 October 4 84 70 0.00 0.0 October 5 80 63 0.00 0.0 October 6 63 48 0.23 0.0 October 7 57 38 0.00 0.0 October 8 62 38 0.00 0.0 October 9 70 48 0.00 0.0 October 10 79 60 0.00 0.0 October 11 85 61 0.00 0.0 October 12 88 63 0.00 0.0 October 13 89 63 0.00 0.0 October 14 80 65 0.00 0.0 October 15 74 59 0.31 0.0 October 16 70 50 0.00 0.0 October 17 63 44 0.00 0.0 October 18 63 41 0.00 0.0 October 19 61 47 0.00 0.0 October 20 60 46 0.00 0.0 October 21 58 44 0.00 0.0 October 22 60 45 0.00 0.0 October 23 73 39 0.00 0.0 October 24 73 50 0.00 0.0 October 25 68 48 0.00 0.0 October 26 64 49 0.00 0.0 October 27 72 46 0.22 0.0 October 28 58 40 0.00 0.0 October 29 53 43 0.71 0.0 October 30 48 37 0.15 0.0 October 31 51 36 0.00 0.0 October 2007 Newark Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) October 1 70 59 0.00 0.0 October 2 74 54 0.00 0.0 October 3 79 67 0.00 0.0 October 4 87 68 0.00 0.0 October 5 83 66 0.00 0.0 October 6 85 63 0.00 0.0 October 7 83 66 0.00 0.0 October 8 89 66 0.00 0.0 October 9 81 60 0.60 0.0 October 10 74 62 0.04 0.0 October 11 70 54 0.68 0.0 October 12 62 47 0.17 0.0 October 13 64 43 0.00 0.0 October 14 67 45 0.00 0.0 October 15 69 49 0.00 0.0 October 16 72 56 0.00 0.0 October 17 74 57 0.00 0.0 October 18 79 59 0.00 0.0 October 19 75 63 0.48 0.0 October 20 72 57 0.00 0.0 October 21 76 50 0.00 0.0 October 22 78 53 0.00 0.0 October 23 80 64 0.01 0.0 October 24 69 53 0.14 0.0 October 25 58 50 0.13 0.0 October 26 58 51 0.29 0.0 October 27 71 53 1.16 0.0 October 28 58 43 0.00 0.0 October 29 55 39 0.00 0.0 October 30 64 38 0.00 0.0 October 31 66 42 0.00 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 81 / 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro as well Euro AI pretty wet along with GFS and ICON. Ukie not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The drier 12z Euro and GEM matches the recent trend of the cutoffs staying down near the Carolinas in recent months. We have been getting quite a bit of blocking to our north leading to the very heavy rainfall totals there. Plus we have been finding ways for initially wet 6-10 day forecasts to back off the closer in time we get. This high pressure to the north has been very overpowering since September 2024. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The drier 12z Euro and GEM matches the recent trend of the cutoffs staying down near the Carolinas in recent months. We have been getting quite a bit of blocking to our north leading to the very heavy rainfall totals there. Plus we have been finding ways for initially wet 6-10 day forecasts to back off the closer in time we get. I think this one meanders down south and then moves e-ne out to sea. Even AI has trended further east. I think the trend OTS has begun. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 25 minutes ago, FPizz said: Euro AI pretty wet along with GFS and ICON. Ukie not even close I don't know why I bother to look at models at all. They're flip flopping even for Tuesday's rain, let alone next weekend. They're complete and utter trash. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think this one meanders down south and then moves e-ne out to sea. Even AI has trended further east. I think the trend OTS has begun. WX/PT The lack of rainfall and stronger ridging on today’s run allowed the 12z Euro to bring back 80° warmth in mid-October once the cutoff exits to our SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago dry begets dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: dry begets dry Going to be a looooong winter if this pattern keeps up. By looooong I mean frustrating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Going to be a looooong winter if this pattern keeps up. By looooong I mean frustrating. I think it will be a moderately snowy winter. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, MANDA said: Going to be a looooong winter if this pattern keeps up. By looooong I mean frustrating. looks like a repeat of last fall so far-dry and warm...we'll see what Nov and Dec bring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes November 2012 on the 7th was my all time favorite early season snowstorm. Our earliest WSW event and we had 8.5 inches of a very heavy wet snow here. It was snowing on the south shore and raining on the north shore lol. Do you think we still would have had snow with that had that storm occurred on October 31 though? Freehold NJ getting 14 inches of snow from that was very impressive and must be their earliest double digit snowfall by at least a month lol. October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011. Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0 Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - - Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0 1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0 1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0 1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0 1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0 1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0 1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T 1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0 1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 1859-1860 46.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago At least most models are still showing a nice half inch to inch soaking for tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Hopefully that will hold. That would be a much needed watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Halloween is the classic time for our first noreaster and they usually are of the hybrid type. NWS just came on board with this. Earlier today, they had sun for Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now