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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


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5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's a general observation. The October climatology for New York used to be the same as modern Scranton, PA (elev: ~1,000 feet, and inland). Mean temp (1869-1900): 55.0F in NYC; mean temp (2015-2024): 55.1F at Scranton. And there have been several 1"+ snows in Scranton in October. Plus, the NYC figures are probably artificially elevated due to UHI, which is minimal in Scranton. The actual climate was probably colder.

The main difference is proximity to the ocean even if averages are or were the same. October water temps are very bad no matter what era you are referring to. 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think that back in the 1800s at some point DC averaged around 70 inches of snow though? And NYC averaged around 50 inches of snow?

I can buy NYC averaging around 40 inches back in the early to mid 1800s so I guess that's close enough. I'm not familiar with DC climo to hazard a guess, but the highest I would go for them is between 30-35 inches of snow back in the early to mid 1800s.

No, because they don't get upslope snows, which are what pile up on the western slopes of the Appalachians. It looks DC used to average around 2 feet per year, but that's still substantially more than today. They haven't had 2 feet of snow in any winter in the last 11 years. And the early numbers are probably an undercount as they were mostly just daily observations after the storm had ended, versus today's systematized observations of reporting peak accumulation in each six-hour period.

UCAR estimates a bias of 15-20 percent, which could be even greater if there is missing/bad data. See: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News So it's reasonable to believe that, in the absence of human intervention, DC should be receiving 25-30+ inches of snow each winter. It's hard to imagine the depth of snow that should have fallen over the last 100 years but failed to fall due to human interventions.

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54

October 1954 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
83 70 0.00 0.0
86 69 0.00 0.0
81 66 0.13 0.0
84 70 0.00 0.0
80 63 0.00 0.0
63 48 0.23 0.0
57 38 0.00 0.0
62 38 0.00 0.0
70 48 0.00 0.0
79 60 0.00 0.0
85 61 0.00 0.0
88 63 0.00 0.0
89 63 0.00 0.0
80 65 0.00 0.0
74 59 0.31 0.0
70 50 0.00 0.0
63 44 0.00 0.0
63 41 0.00 0.0
61 47 0.00 0.0
60 46 0.00 0.0
58 44 0.00 0.0
60 45 0.00 0.0
73 39 0.00 0.0
73 50 0.00 0.0
68 48 0.00 0.0
64 49 0.00 0.0
72 46 0.22 0.0
58 40 0.00 0.0
53 43 0.71 0.0
48 37 0.15 0.0
51 36 0.00 0.0

 

 

October 2007 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
70 59 0.00 0.0
74 54 0.00 0.0
79 67 0.00 0.0
87 68 0.00 0.0
83 66 0.00 0.0
85 63 0.00 0.0
83 66 0.00 0.0
89 66 0.00 0.0
81 60 0.60 0.0
74 62 0.04 0.0
70 54 0.68 0.0
62 47 0.17 0.0
64 43 0.00 0.0
67 45 0.00 0.0
69 49 0.00 0.0
72 56 0.00 0.0
74 57 0.00 0.0
79 59 0.00 0.0
75 63 0.48 0.0
72 57 0.00 0.0
76 50 0.00 0.0
78 53 0.00 0.0
80 64 0.01 0.0
69 53 0.14 0.0
58 50 0.13 0.0
58 51 0.29 0.0
71 53 1.16 0.0
58 43 0.00 0.0
55 39 0.00 0.0
64 38 0.00 0.0
66 42 0.00 0.0
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The drier 12z Euro and GEM matches the recent trend of the cutoffs staying down near the Carolinas in recent months. We have been getting quite a bit of blocking to our north leading to the very heavy rainfall totals there. Plus we have been finding ways for initially wet 6-10 day forecasts to back off the closer in time we get. This high pressure to the north has been very overpowering since September 2024.

IMG_4855.gif.74a025d455624932c727ec6220d408eb.gif

IMG_4856.gif.201065ba56988d24cb1ef0471518b357.gif

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The drier 12z Euro and GEM matches the recent trend of the cutoffs staying down near the Carolinas in recent months. We have been getting quite a bit of blocking to our north leading to the very heavy rainfall totals there. Plus we have been finding ways for initially wet 6-10 day forecasts to back off the closer in time we get.

I think this one meanders down south and then moves e-ne out to sea. Even AI has trended further east. I think the trend OTS has begun.

WX/PT

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25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Euro AI pretty wet along with GFS and ICON.  Ukie not even close

I don't know why I bother to look at models at all. They're flip flopping even for Tuesday's rain, let alone next weekend. 

They're complete and utter trash.

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6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think this one meanders down south and then moves e-ne out to sea. Even AI has trended further east. I think the trend OTS has begun.

WX/PT

The lack of rainfall and stronger ridging on today’s run allowed the 12z Euro to bring back 80° warmth in mid-October once the cutoff exits to our SE.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes November 2012 on the 7th was my all time favorite early season snowstorm.  Our earliest WSW event and we had 8.5 inches of a very heavy wet snow here.  It was snowing on the south shore and raining on the north shore lol.  Do you think we still would have had snow with that had that storm occurred on October 31 though?

Freehold NJ getting 14 inches of snow from that was very impressive and must be their earliest double digit snowfall by at least a month lol.

 

October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011.

Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30.

 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0
Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - -
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2
1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0
1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0
1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0
1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0
1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0
1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0
1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0
1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T
1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0
1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0


 

1859-1860 46.9

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011.

Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30.

 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0
Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - -
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2
1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0
1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0
1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0
1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0
1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0
1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0
1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0
1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T
1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0
1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0


 

1859-1860 46.9

 

 

Take a look at 1836. Tri-daily mean of 38.2F for October, and 30.8F for November, at Allegheny Arsenal in Pittsburgh (Lawrenceville). Not looking for a debate here... the 1820s data is probably substandard exposure and too high. Not that it matters much, last year was 56.4F at the airport, which is 500 feet higher in elevation for context.

3GEUEiP.png

Despite the lower elevation, the 46.9F mean observed in 1837 is more than 1F lower than any year in the official record, and 48.2F in 1836 is second lowest. This is what was stolen from us!

kiY2byi.png

 

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14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Take a look at 1836. Tri-daily mean of 38.2F for October, and 30.8F for November, at Allegheny Arsenal in Pittsburgh (Lawrenceville). Not looking for a debate here... the 1820s data is probably substandard exposure and too high. Not that it matters much, last year was 56.4F at the airport, which is 500 feet higher in elevation for context.

3GEUEiP.png

Despite the lower elevation, the 46.9F mean observed in 1837 is more than 1F lower than any year in the official record, and 48.2F in 1836 is second lowest. This is what was stolen from us!

kiY2byi.png

 

We used to be destined for greatness, but it was stolen. In 1837, the St. Clair River, north of Detroit, was still closed to navigation on June 1, with ice harvested from the river on the 4th of July!

From Special Bulletin No. 149 of the Michigan Agricultural College [now Michigan State University] dated February 1926:

oCyLNwm.png

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9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some kind of fire on 202 by wegmans. Also lost power inside the store

Saw on the local firehouse Facebook page that it is a brush fire.  That Wegmans is like 7 minutes from my home

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24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

We used to be destined for greatness, but it was stolen. In 1837, the St. Clair River, north of Detroit, was still closed to navigation on June 1, with ice harvested from the river on the 4th of July!

From Special Bulletin No. 149 of the Michigan Agricultural College [now Michigan State University] dated February 1926:

oCyLNwm.png

Leftovers from Little Ice Age, those temps were never sustainable climate change or not. And, even by that time's standards that winter was harsh as per the article. 

North America was estimated to be up to 3.5C colder than the latest 30 year average. Which as we know for long time periods is an absolutely massive negative temp anomaly. 

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