October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[Stormlover74]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Had a low temp of 47 here this morning. 

We have the 4 day blast of summer with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday through Tuesday, and then I'm hoping we get some heavy downpours with the front on Wednesday like last night's Euro showed. Then a nice cooldown for late week with high temps in the 60s. 

Unfortunately what the euro giveth it then taketh away

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[Sundog]

Tons of Siberian snowcover early this season. Hopefully it continues through October when it matters more. 

I'll take any help I can get to bring us a more snowy winter. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Tons of Siberian snowcover early this season. Hopefully it continues through October when it matters more. 

I'll take any help I can get to bring us a more snowy winter. 

Great news

[donsutherland1]

Here's how the second half of October has fared after a warmer or colder than normal first half since 1990.

[psv88]

Down to 51, temp dropping like a rock. Maybe we make a run at 42/43. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs
 

PHL: 72
New Brnswck: 69
EWR: 68
ACY: 68
TTN: 68
TEB: 67
ISP: 67
LGA: 66
NYC: 66
JFK: 66
BLM: 64

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs
 

PHL: 72
New Brnswck: 69
EWR: 68
ACY: 68
TTN: 68
TEB: 67
ISP: 67
LGA: 66
NYC: 66
JFK: 66
BLM: 64

67 here

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Tons of Siberian snowcover early this season. Hopefully it continues through October when it matters more. 

I'll take any help I can get to bring us a more snowy winter. 

there is always tons of siberian snow cover in october has not helped nyc winters in a long time..

[Roger Smith]

Maybe if they would truck some of it in, it would help? 

[Sundog]

7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

there is always tons of siberian snow cover in october has not helped nyc winters in a long time..

Have you seen the last few years of winter here?

Like I said I'll take any help I can get. 

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, Sundog said:

Tons of Siberian snowcover early this season. Hopefully it continues through October when it matters more. 

I'll take any help I can get to bring us a more snowy winter. 

Unfortunately, the later research has suggested that a higher Siberian Snow Advance Index (SAI) is correlated with a positive AO. The research notes that the early inverse relationship found by Cohen et al., was an exception, not a rule. 

Excerpts:

The running decadal correlations between the SAI_OCT and AO and SAI_NOV and AO are shown in Fig. 7d and e, respectively. In the former, there are significantly more positive than negative values (Table 3), suggesting that the period of strong positive (negative as defined here) correlations that occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, as described by Cohen and Jones (2011), was a rather exceptional event, as previously noted by Peings et al. (2013). Indeed, the frequency of decades with significant SCA_OCT–AO correlations of either sign are not significant. In addition to the recent period in the 2000s, Fig. 7d reveals a period of significant negative correlations centred in the 1840s, also present in the 21-year data (Fig. S4d). Finally, the ERA5 data reveal that the recent period of the statistically significant negative relationship between SAI_OCT and the AO has ended: the most recent decades have positive r values.

[jm1220]

55 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Have you seen the last few years of winter here?

Like I said I'll take any help I can get. 

Bluewave has posted about how a very cold Siberia creates a contrast with the very warm water off Japan which fuels the raging Pacific jet which we certainly DON’T want. So it’s a more complex relationship than “Siberian snow cover is always good”. 

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, the later research has suggested that a higher Siberian Snow Advance Index (SAI) is correlated with a positive AO. The research notes that the early inverse relationship found by Cohen et al., was an exception, not a rule. 

Excerpts:

The running decadal correlations between the SAI_OCT and AO and SAI_NOV and AO are shown in Fig. 7d and e, respectively. In the former, there are significantly more positive than negative values (Table 3), suggesting that the period of strong positive (negative as defined here) correlations that occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, as described by Cohen and Jones (2011), was a rather exceptional event, as previously noted by Peings et al. (2013). Indeed, the frequency of decades with significant SCA_OCT–AO correlations of either sign are not significant. In addition to the recent period in the 2000s, Fig. 7d reveals a period of significant negative correlations centred in the 1840s, also present in the 21-year data (Fig. S4d). Finally, the ERA5 data reveal that the recent period of the statistically significant negative relationship between SAI_OCT and the AO has ended: the most recent decades have positive r values.

Thank you for the exaplanation, I've been out of the loop for awhile.

I figured it must have been better than documenting squirrel activity haha

[lee59]

46 here, chilliest of the season so far.

[Sundog]

First 40s here, 49.6 degrees. LGA low was 57 degrees hahaha

[Sundog]

My thermometer is 20 feet up, I bet I could have squeezed out a few more tenths if I had it at 2 meters. 

[bluewave]

Walpack was able to get their first freeze of the season yesterday. Pretty wild microclimate in that valley with an early morning low of 31° and high still near 70°. Had my coolest morning of the fall so far at 45°.

 

▼ Walpack

NJ

2025-10-02

Mesonet

68

31

 

[SACRUS]

 

49 / 48 clear.  Warming today to the 70s quickly from morning lows.   Sat - Tue very warm  low - mid 80s in the warmest spots, perhaps some areas get 86-87 on Mon/Tue but shy of records which are upper 80s/90s in the period..  Front overnight Tue / into Wed brings some rain.  Cooler - near normal Wed (10/7) - Fri.   Euro others warmer by the 10th, GFS the coolest.   Overall looks near / above normal beyond there.

 

[uofmiami]

44.0 in Muttontown & 45.1 in Syosset.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

44.0 in Muttontown & 45.1 in Syosset.

Was 43 here when I left my house. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2023)
NYC: 87 (1919)
LGA: 85 (2000)
JFK: 84 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 37 (1945)
NYC: 38 (1974)
LGA: 40 (1974)
JFK: 40 (2003)


Historical:


1780: A hurricane, which formed on October 1st, destroyed the port city of Savanna-la-Mar on the island of Jamaica on this day. By some estimates, this stormed caused 3,000 deaths. This storm is documented in the Jamaica Archives and Record Department. 

1780: The hurricane season of 1780 was one of the worst in recorded history. At least 8 destructive storms struck American and Caribbean shores that year. In October, three storms in three successive weeks caused unparalleled economic and military destruction. The first, named the Savanna-La-Mer hurricane for the tiny settlement on the island of Jamaica which was completely destroyed by the storm's tides and winds, struck on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1841 - An October gale, the worst of record for Nantucket, MA, caught the Cap Cod fishing fleet at sea. Forty ships were driven ashore on Cape Cod, and 57 men perished from the town of Truro alone. Heavy snow fell inland, with 18 inches near Middletown, CT. (David Ludlum)

1903: An unusual late-season tornado moved northeast from west of Chatfield, Minnesota, passing through and devastating St. Charles, Minnesota. Seven people were killed, and 30 injured as 50 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed.

1912 - The longest dry spell of record in the U.S. commenced as Bagdad, CA, went 767 days without rain. (David Ludlum)

1963: Hurricane Flora, one of the deadliest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Basin, battered Haiti with sustained winds around 150 mph. The storm moved northwestward, meandered over western Cuba from the 4th to the 8th, and then finally accelerated northeastward out to sea. 5,000 people were killed on Haiti with damage severe to complete. Enormous amounts of rain fell in Cuba due to Flora's slow movement. 90 inches of rain deluged Bayamo. A total of 7,200 people were killed by Flora and damage was set at $435 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1964 - Hurricane Hilda struck Louisiana spawning many tornadoes, and claimed twenty-two lives. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1966: Late on this date Hurricane Inez began moving southwestward from a position about 100 miles east of Miami, FL. The eye of Inez moved from Key Largo to Key West on the 4th. The highest wind reported on the Florida mainland was a gust to 80 mph at Homestead AFB. All of the Keys reported winds of hurricane force ranging up to 100-125 mph in gusts. Three people were killed and 11 more were injured. Over $5 million dollars in damage resulted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1970: The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration was formed and the U.S. Weather Bureau became the National Weather Service. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1974: Richmond, Virginia had its earliest first freezing day of autumn on this date in 1974 when the temperature fell to 31 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1979 - The first killer tornado of record in October in Connecticut destroyed sixteen vintage aircraft at the Bradley Air Museum in Windsor Locks. The tornado damaged more than one hundred homes causing 200 million dollars damage. Three persons were killed, and 500 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

1979: An F4 tornado struck the towns of Windsor, Windsor Locks, and Suffield in Connecticut, causing an estimated $400 million in property damage, on this day. The New England Air Museum, which housed more than 20 vintage aircraft, was destroyed. This tornado also caused a United Airlines flight to abort a landing at the Bradley International Airport because the pilot saw the tornado.

1983: A prolonged very heavy rain event, starting back on September 29th, finally came to an end over the eastern two-thirds of Arizona as rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 12 inches courtesy of moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Octave. The result was the most destructive flooding ever in Arizona. 13 people were killed and 1,300 homes were destroyed. Damage was estimated at $178 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1986 - Remnants of Hurricane Paine deluged Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas with 6 to 10 inch overnight rains. Hardy, OK, was drenched with 21.79 inches. Heavy rain between September 26th and October 4th caused 350 million dollars damage in Oklahoma. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-five cities in the Upper Midwest, including ten in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Duluth MN, Eau Claire, WI, and Spencer, IA, dipped to 24 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 80s in the Northern and Central High Plains Region. At Chadron, NE, the mercury soared from a morning low of 29 degrees to an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in southern California. The high of 108 degrees at Downtown Los Angeles was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold Canadian air invaded the north central U.S. bringing an end to the growing season across those states. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix, AZ, reported a record high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. A dozen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck, ND, and Williston, ND, with readings of 16 degrees above zero. An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, with five inches reported at West Yellowstone, MT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1992: A strong tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf of Mexico spawned 10 tornadoes from the Tampa Bay area to Ocala, killing four people and injuring 77 others. Hardest hit was Pinellas County where all the deaths occurred. Heavy rain caused moderate to heavy flooding in northeast Florida, especially the Jacksonville area where 8.69 inches fell. Brunswick, GA was deluged with 10.14 inches in 24 hours. Major beach erosion occurred at Egmont Key and all along the coast of Hillsborough County. Total damage was estimated at $32 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Elkader, IA recorded their earliest measurable snowfall with a half an inch. Embarrass had a low temperature of 9 °F.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2000: Thunderstorms can still be a hazard in the fall season in CO’s Rocky Mts. two people were hurt when hit by lightning while at the Forest Canyon Overlook (approx. 12,000 feet elevation) on Trail Ridge Road. The thunderstorm gave little warning because it formed above them. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2002: Hurricane Lili made landfall between White Lake and Vermilion Bay, Louisiana as a Category 1 storm.

2006: Illinois: Several cities tie or set new maximum temperature records. Dodge City, KS set their all-time October record high of 98 °F Peoria and Springfield hit 93 °F; Moline and Burlington, 95 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2015: Unprecedented rainfall fell throughout South Carolina from October 1st — 5th, 2015. Storm total amounts greater than 20" were observed in Columbia and Sumter.

 

2017: The City of Houston had the wettest year on record with 73.51 inches. The previous wettest year was in 1900 when 72.86 inches were measured.

[bluewave]

Another over the top warm up this weekend with the record 90° heat forecast for MSP while we stay in the 80s.

 

 

 

 

[Sundog]

6Z GFS says the last day over 70 is this Tuesday for the duration of the run. 

[SACRUS]

Just now, Sundog said:

6Z GFS says the last day over 70 is this Tuesday for the duration of the run. 

much different than the Euro which surges more warmth into the east coast 10/10 - beyond with a strong ridge into MS valley.   Maybe a middle ground near / above normal is a good compromise at this point.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

6Z GFS says the last day over 70 is this Tuesday for the duration of the run. 

Statistically pretty unlikely since the warm spots like Newark haven’t  stayed under 70° from 10-8 to 10-18 which is the end of the GFS run since 2002.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ max temp 10-8 to 10-18
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-10-18	78	0
2023-10-18	74	0
2022-10-18	71	0
2021-10-18	84	0
2020-10-18	77	0
2019-10-18	75	0
2018-10-18	81	0
2017-10-18	83	0
2016-10-18	85	0
2015-10-18	81	0
2014-10-18	79	0
2013-10-18	75	0
2012-10-18	73	0
2011-10-18	88	0
2010-10-18	79	0
2009-10-18	73	0
2008-10-18	79	0
2007-10-18	89	0
2006-10-18	80	0
2005-10-18	75	0
2004-10-18	76	0
2003-10-18	78	0
2002-10-18	65	0

[FPizz]

39.2, first 30s!

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

First 40s here, 49.6 degrees. LGA low was 57 degrees hahaha

For real, 1st 40s?  I know our locations differ, but I've had probably 8-10 40s already, and low 40s a few times.  That is wild since you aren't really in a city.  Tony was 55 lol.  

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

39.2, first 30s!

For real, 1st 40s?  I know our locations differ, but I've had probably 8-10 40s already, and low 40s a few times.  That is wild since you aren't really in a city.  Tony was 55 lol.  

I've had a few close calls in the low 50s but never actually below 50.

I am not that far from the water either, places that are a few miles south of me more in the central part of the island away from the Sound and the ocean get a little bit cooler than me. Plus my thermometer is like 20 feet up and not the best location unfortunately.

All that combines for elevated temps. 

[psv88]

45 here. Stopped dropping around 2 am, lower spots in town dropped to 43/44.
 

Getting used to not being in the pit and radiating well.