Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Im working on it

You can do it put your ween into it

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You can do it put your ween into it

 

I like the 934 member near PVC

[CoastalWx]

There’s some CAPE out there. Some TCU. Let’s get some thunder. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the 934 member near PVC

Keep that for AEMATT. I’d like my rain to touch ground and not be horizontal. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Keep that for AEMATT. I’d like my rain to touch ground and not be horizontal. 

Let’s blow the chicken coops to Gene’s house.

[Ginx snewx]

.65 Drove in under the torrential squall at 5 am

[Damage In Tolland]

.53 needed it for the Winterizer fert I dropped yesterday. Was worried a Steining 

[dendrite]

Looks like a little more rain on the way…should’ve looked at ENX radar before figuring it was over.

[Typhoon Tip]

October is 2nd only to April for mornings like this...  49 F slate gray dead calm and wet.  Zero redeeming value ...  And 2nd place means sometimes it's actually in first.

[Chrisrotary12]

The Euro made me chuckle.... just an endless parade of troughs and yet we only score 1-2". #Boredom

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro close to violence

Some of the AI members would be 

[CoastalWx]

A chunk of google AI members near the cape. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s coming 

[Hazey]

Congrats Azores on their potential 2nd TC strike of the season. We might have a new tropical hot zone.

[jsw]

My local station reports .83 inches thus far. The Whetstone Brook running through the center of town is finally filling its banks. Huzzah!

[jbenedet]

Great drink here today. 1” in view…
 

 

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming 

It could 

[CoastalWx]

Quick third of an inch here 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro close to violence

This is a disaster in waiting in the Caribbean. Melissa could very well be our 3rd C5 of the season. I’m not kidding. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a disaster in waiting in the Caribbean. Melissa could very well be our 3rd C5 of the season. I’m not kidding. 

Yup and I really think this could be a threat up here.. not even wish casting.. the flooding could be insane for them 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup and I really think this could be a threat up here.. not even wish casting.. the flooding could be insane for them 

I’m still deeply skeptical for here, and don’t think any purely tropical solution is on the table, but if this ends up with a slower and further west track there could be some bend back or hybrid situation as Melissa gets pulled from the Caribbean.

To me it’s still all about what troughing looks like at the end of October. Much like the nor’easter earlier in the month you don’t need a direct hit for impacts if it’s going baroclinic/post-tropical. 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m still deeply skeptical for here, and don’t think any purely tropical solution is on the table, but if this ends up with a slower and further west track there could be some bend back or hybrid situation as Melissa gets pulled from the Caribbean.

To me it’s still all about what troughing looks like at the end of October. Much like the nor’easter earlier in the month you don’t need a direct hit for impacts if it’s going baroclinic/post-tropical. 

Well.. yesterday, they had the track heading up between Cuba & Haiti .. today they now show it crawling and taking a left turn under Jamaica. So... If it does continue on this trend, then we will have a very strong Hurricane on our hands. I also think that this would allow it eventually to pull northward and at least give us some precipitation, or a better chance of precipitation than if it were to have had directly up through Haiti as it showed yesterday. Something to track

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.45" here  Should about do it

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m still deeply skeptical for here, and don’t think any purely tropical solution is on the table, but if this ends up with a slower and further west track there could be some bend back or hybrid situation as Melissa gets pulled from the Caribbean.

To me it’s still all about what troughing looks like at the end of October. Much like the nor’easter earlier in the month you don’t need a direct hit for impacts if it’s going baroclinic/post-tropical. 

Sandy 2.0 is coming hard

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Sandy 2.0 is coming hard

You’re going to need a hell of a trough for that

[ineedsnow]

Andy Hazelton

 

@AndyHazelton

·

55m

 

 

If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show), I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep, warm

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Andy Hazelton

 

@AndyHazelton

·

55m

 

 

If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show), I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep, warm

Don't call it 'hyperbolic' then, call it 'childish and drama jerking' ...meh, semantics -

[CoastalWx]

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a disaster in waiting in the Caribbean. Melissa could very well be our 3rd C5 of the season. I’m not kidding. 

Another disaster will be the GFS op performance with this.

[WxWatcher007]

Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch. 

Agree. Some of those Hurr models showing it.