September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[psv88]

Water levels are high on the north shore. Probably a 1.5 feet above normal. Stiff breeze as well 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Sundays forecast seems subject to change if Walt is correct with more rain.

I'll need to wait this out...  one thing I didnt see was EC AI was almost nothing.

It could be the EC suite (non AI) is too strong and too far southwest with the 5H vort plunging sdwd from south center Canada with the resultant sfc response too robust here. Would make this a period of waa showers Sunday afternoon and maybe cool frontal showers Monday.

I do think its best to play temps conservatively and cooler in this pattern for another 10 days and wait this out a bit but I plan on showers Sunday afternoon and possibly right into Monday night.  

Patience... at least for me til a I reconsider later on.  12z WPC D4-6 guidance has boosted qpf a bit and I think that right... dont plunge into the unusual heavy solution till we have more confidence. Lets not say its a nice end to the weekend beginning of next week. 

[Brian5671]

Euro wet for next Monday

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro wet for next Monday

CMC wet east of NYC, drier west, but other models have nothing

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

CMC wet east of NYC, drier west, but other models have nothing

Cutoff lows notoriously difficult with precip placement.  But would be nice to get another dump of rain and on a Monday-that would be great

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

CMC wet east of NYC, drier west, but other models have nothing

If the low can close off and dig west of us, we’ll get a moist fetch off the ocean. If not, probably cloudy and nasty. 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the low can close off and dig west of us, we’ll get a moist fetch off the ocean. If not, probably cloudy and nasty. 

euro did this last month and busted badly. could still happen but right now if its alone its probably off