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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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Some showers are possible this evening into early tomorrow as a warm front moves across the region. Afterward, tomorrow and Saturday will be warmer days. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s.

Another round of showers or periods of rain is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. Rainfall from the latter system will be more substantial than that which will occur overnight.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +11.00 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.207 today. 

 

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11 hours ago, Dark Star said:

There are many factors that go into Hurricane Season predictions, but the easiest is to assume that the ultra warm Gulf would enhance any system?  Looks like the Hurricane season predictions will be wrong 2 years in a row?

Question, and because I don’t have a clue:  why do we say warm waters =  increased hurricane activity?  Don’t we need a temp delta to generate storms, regardless of a ‘warm’ state?  Meaning - warm, normal, or cold, isn’t a big air/water temp delta the driver?  Is that true?  Hurricane seasonal forecasts have not been great over the last 25 years IIRC. 

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22 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

I think climate change has been taken into account as a factor, without the climate dynamics at play really being understood.  A bias has emerged in hurricane seasonal forecasts, which maybe works for winter forecasts 7 times in 10 and that makes sense, but hurricane seasonals have not verified 7 in 10 this century so far.  Go back to the drawing board and work out a new method is my suggestion.  This isn’t the first bust of a dramatic hurricane season prognostication.  

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23 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Looks like we'll pick up a hundredth or two here in Somerset. Not helpful. 

.71 in Branchburg.   Held just long enough for the western part of the county.   Some decent lightning and thunder too

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19 minutes ago, FPizz said:

.71 in Branchburg.   Held just long enough for the western part of the county.   Some decent lightning and thunder too

Nice, but I'm jealous. I would've loved to get that much for the garden. Here I had a moderate shower that dropped only 0.06". I see on radar that there is more scattered activity coming in from PA so hopefully we'll get more. 

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4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Hit the jackpot here.  Just checked the gauge and 1.12".  It really came down it torrents so can't say I'm surprised.  Current radar says I might add to that total over the next several hours.   

Was a nice drink.  Sorry for others who missed out.

Close to an 1” here; hopefully some of it was absorbed instead of running off. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Nice, but I'm jealous. I would've loved to get that much for the garden. Here I had a moderate shower that dropped only 0.06". I see on radar that there is more scattered activity coming in from PA so hopefully we'll get more. 

Yeah might get lucky with some of these showers coming from the south

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