SACRUS Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj08822 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Almost 0.8 inches of rain out here in the Lehigh Valley (PA) in last 90 minutes with the slow-moving front. Great for the grass and garden. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Line looking very robust. About to move through my area. Will let ya know how it goes in about 90 minutes. I'm giddy with anticipation! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Some showers are possible this evening into early tomorrow as a warm front moves across the region. Afterward, tomorrow and Saturday will be warmer days. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s. Another round of showers or periods of rain is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. Rainfall from the latter system will be more substantial than that which will occur overnight. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +11.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.207 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Coming down in torrents. Some good rumbles and flashes. Winds gusting to about 25 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Darkening skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Finally raining in chester! Also detoured into Peapack as 206 is closed for a brush fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Yay raining with thunder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Finally raining in chester! Also detoured into Peapack as 206 is closed for a brush fire. Feels like I haven't tracked some good convection in ages. Hope today and Saturday pan out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 These NJ climate site #'s are correct... and match Radar Acopte Digital 1 hr and STP accums... .48 at my house in Wantage. Click image for clarity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Definitely starting to weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 11 hours ago, Dark Star said: There are many factors that go into Hurricane Season predictions, but the easiest is to assume that the ultra warm Gulf would enhance any system? Looks like the Hurricane season predictions will be wrong 2 years in a row? Question, and because I don’t have a clue: why do we say warm waters = increased hurricane activity? Don’t we need a temp delta to generate storms, regardless of a ‘warm’ state? Meaning - warm, normal, or cold, isn’t a big air/water temp delta the driver? Is that true? Hurricane seasonal forecasts have not been great over the last 25 years IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, nj08822 said: Almost 0.8 inches of rain out here in the Lehigh Valley (PA) in last 90 minutes with the slow-moving front. Great for the grass and garden. 0.7 “ south of you in Bethlehem Twp. Definitely much needed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 22 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms I think climate change has been taken into account as a factor, without the climate dynamics at play really being understood. A bias has emerged in hurricane seasonal forecasts, which maybe works for winter forecasts 7 times in 10 and that makes sense, but hurricane seasonals have not verified 7 in 10 this century so far. Go back to the drawing board and work out a new method is my suggestion. This isn’t the first bust of a dramatic hurricane season prognostication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Mother of God this is impressive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, steve392 said: Mother of God this is impressive! That looks way overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Looks like we'll pick up a hundredth or two here in Somerset. Not helpful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Thunder has reached Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 23 minutes ago, mgerb said: Looks like we'll pick up a hundredth or two here in Somerset. Not helpful. .71 in Branchburg. Held just long enough for the western part of the county. Some decent lightning and thunder too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Trash line for the city. Dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 0.32" in Sparta. Lots of rumbles of thunder. It looked more impressive on radar than in person. But I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Well that was total let down LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 19 minutes ago, FPizz said: .71 in Branchburg. Held just long enough for the western part of the county. Some decent lightning and thunder too Nice, but I'm jealous. I would've loved to get that much for the garden. Here I had a moderate shower that dropped only 0.06". I see on radar that there is more scattered activity coming in from PA so hopefully we'll get more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 26 minutes ago, Sundog said: Trash line for the city. Dud. More yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Some dust control woudl be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Rainfall amounts have fizzled as the front moved toward New York City. Some amounts through 8:15 pm include: Newark: 0.02" (light rain) Sussex: 0.33" Trenton: 0.07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Some dust control woudl be nice. At least it's not that dry. Phoenix is currently seeing blowing dust courtesy of an outflow boundary that is moving through: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Hit the jackpot here. Just checked the gauge and 1.12". It really came down it torrents so can't say I'm surprised. Current radar says I might add to that total over the next several hours. Was a nice drink. Sorry for others who missed out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Hit the jackpot here. Just checked the gauge and 1.12". It really came down it torrents so can't say I'm surprised. Current radar says I might add to that total over the next several hours. Was a nice drink. Sorry for others who missed out. Close to an 1” here; hopefully some of it was absorbed instead of running off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Nice, but I'm jealous. I would've loved to get that much for the garden. Here I had a moderate shower that dropped only 0.06". I see on radar that there is more scattered activity coming in from PA so hopefully we'll get more. Yeah might get lucky with some of these showers coming from the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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