Cyclone-68 Posted Thursday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:36 PM So much of a south shift that it avoids the Hebert Box to the northwest (mostly) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:38 AM Looks like we can cancel tropical season. 1 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:26 PM 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we can cancel tropical season. GEFS with a storm forming in about 6 days and going through the Gulf.. maybe some remnants of that if it develops and we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 PM 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GEFS with a storm forming in about 6 days and going through the Gulf.. maybe some remnants of that if it develops and we're lucky Sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:27 PM 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we can cancel tropical season. Yea in early September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:36 PM 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yea in early September Boring for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Friday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:14 PM Deleted my post by accident.. but October you can get a second mini peak around mid month...however doesn't the pattern typically get more hostile by then with regards to westerlies? (up here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 PM 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Deleted my post by accident.. but October you can get a second mini peak around mid month...however doesn't the pattern typically get more hostile by then with regards to westerlies? (up here) Maybe we can Rocktober again. That was the best warm season type event since Bob I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Friday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:20 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can Rocktober again. That was the best warm season type event since Bob I think. yeah maybe we can start getting exciting weather again at least. the area is due for another pine buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:32 PM 12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: yeah maybe we can start getting exciting weather again at least. the area is due for another pine buster I still have the recording of it pitch black with my phone up to the screen and window open. Freaking jet engine. It was after peak too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Friday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 PM 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still have the recording of it pitch black with my phone up to the screen and window open. Freaking jet engine. It was after peak too. Looking through old pics on my cloud..small sampling of my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Friday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:46 PM Yeah just like that, poof. Nothing to track in the LR. This season blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:59 PM I was on board with that developing like the guidance lol, but I didn’t expect the lid to come off until after the 20th. Just a hostile basin rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:45 PM 45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was on board with that developing like the guidance lol, but I didn’t expect the lid to come off until after the 20th. Just a hostile basin rn. They dropped Erin a couple of times early in detection, too. just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:49 PM 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: They dropped Erin a couple of times early in detection, too. just sayn' Good point—there was also a pretty big fail on genesis with Fernand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 12:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:15 PM Cancelled 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM Heading into peak season and barely a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted yesterday at 12:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:00 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:08 PM The one that nay develop over the next week is the one on the front off the SE coast. High pressure over us. Known pattern for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Heading into peak season and barely a wave. Yeah, but I bet the ACE number is wicked high, great season so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 hours ago, Modfan2 said: Yeah, but I bet the ACE number is wicked high, great season so far I think that is also BN too. Erin spiked it up, but we’ve had garbage outside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Flatlined as expected after Erin. What’s really interesting though is that this has been a multi-year global trend. The basins have struggled. WPAC in particular. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Flatlined as expected after Erin. What’s really interesting though is that this has been a multi-year global trend. The basins have struggled. WPAC in particular. I think we all know warm water is the fuel it needs, but it goes to show you how fickle these things are. You can have water that’s boiling below it, but if one atmospheric factor is off, you’re not getting much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think we all know warm water is the fuel it needs, but it goes to show you how fickle these things are. You can have water that’s boiling below it, but if one atmospheric factor is off, you’re not getting much. It glazes eyes over - apparently - in here, as I've tried to explain this aspect about nature - it doesn't report back like anyone gets it. It's probably me and my writing... Gradient is everything. Not sure why it doesn't resonate with the 'cognoscenti' of the site but ...heh. Anyway, warm water doesn't cause hurricanes ( I'm just using your post as a staging launch) it doesn't What is correlated to TC genesis is the qualitative state of the [empirically observed] sounding, which has also long been geophysical derived thermodynamically. The tropical sounding (identified by some dude, Jason Dunion) has warm air moist air from the surface to 500mb give or take. But as you head toward ~ 300 mb level the DPs drop way off: such that the wet-b temperature is relatively low. So, you have a statically unstable environment ( CAPE -heavy air), with warm dry air over top. This initially tends to resist intability in that high level ( which incidentally...due to thermal wind consideration, tends to outflow/divergence ...hence why we look for anticyclonic wind fields at high levels). The the divergence excites/forces UVM. The arriving warmer psuedo-adiabatic turrets turbulently mix, lowering the temp ... which adds to the instability/UVM above 500 mb/acceleration. There's bound to be exceptions. Of course...that's why there are 'phase transition' cyclones that quasi overlap. But should these soundings deviate significantly enough ...doesn't matter how warm the water is. No TC. The sounding as described above really outlines a thermodynamic gradient. Like every system that exists in the Universe, the greater the change between A vs B ( which is the gradient ), the more violent A --> B ... that's the difference between a stressed out coughing TC, versus Dorian 175 mph oil driller. Not talking about mechanical stress like shear and so forth. But there's no point in considering these latter mechanics if the thermodynamics are not satisfied to begin with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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