Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

time is running out..... sucks.  We'll get that 1/100 or 500 eventually.  2038?  2054?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This next one has a better chance than Erin did, relative to the outlook range, spanning the eastern continent and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.   Note, better chance does not mean this:  

The CPC's handling of the PNA index has it rising positive, while the NAO is bucking for a vague negative.  That's all but a 101 requirement, particularly if the latter is over the western limb.  To soon to know if that's the case but just numerically, this is a better canvas.   Erin never even had an easel.  

Anyway, the idea of a warm up mid month still does not have a lot of legs in the index spread. It matters.  If we succeed in doing so, this idea dries up.  Can't really have both. 

A pattern relaxation will likely ensue beyond this trough anomaly deal through the Lakes.   The operational runs will tend to bounce the pattern aggressively the other direction, and by that I mean too much.  The index/PNA rising seems in conflict here.  I could see the flow relaxing, and by virtue of that... yeah, warming, but uuusually, a rising PNA doesn't set the table for an eastern/WAR -like response.   It's interesting... a period of some competing indicators. I tend to lean on the ensembles, however.

So, meanwhile,  the MDR reactivates here over this week.  Any TC born out of that may find a position not as polarward as the GFS is attempting by circa D6/7.   This is also a known bias at long leads regarding operational guidance, definitely with that particular model.  Having too much "beta drift" (sus therein), it likes to move these systems into the Sargasso Sea while maintaining a west track at like 36 N..   Compensating for these behavior biases may see a TC closer to the NE Windward Islands by D6 or 7 ... which also fits the EPS, although I that forecast system seems a little weak considering the favorable main metrics of lowering shear, ample OHC, and lowering SAL.   

All these facets ... mmm, I won't calling them compelling just yet. Too strong. But, I'm willing to actually look at the models this time.  LOL 

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS tried to be fun

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS tried to be fun

pretty good storm for ACK, and that's about it.  The overall pattern isn't terrible and hopefully something develops, and is more trackable than the Erin crap

[WxWatcher007]

Antilles notwithstanding, this looks like fish food to me. 

[Hazey]

Overall pattern doesn’t seem to support an east coast threat. It’s early still but this might be the first season in 6 years that the maritimes don’t get a direct hit or very close shave. Luck may have run out. Fun ride though.

[WxWatcher007]

56 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Overall pattern doesn’t seem to support an east coast threat. It’s early still but this might be the first season in 6 years that the maritimes don’t get a direct hit or very close shave. Luck may have run out. Fun ride though.

I do think the steering pattern gets more “favorable” in the extended with ridging returning, but I’m not sure that’s in time for whatever pops from this current cherry in the tropical Atlantic. 

[metagraphica]

B.A.F.

[Torch Tiger]

Obv la-la land but much better 

[weatherwiz]

One big change to notice as well is how much farther south this is being modeled. Pretty substantial really. If that front doesn't capture the system there would be a path towards the coast.

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One big change to notice as well is how much farther south this is being modeled. Pretty substantial really. If that front doesn't capture the system there would be a path towards the coast.

That wave coming off further south likely saved it from SAL and getting ripped apart by the TUTT. I’m still deeply skeptical it’ll make the trek across the basin but kind of as I expected, the steering pattern is becoming more conducive again for EC potential as we move into mid-September. 
 

Edit to add: This is where I’d perk up if we had homebrew off the EC or even moreso if it came out of the Caribbean. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That wave coming off further south likely saved it from SAL and getting ripped apart by the TUTT. I’m still deeply skeptical it’ll make the trek across the basin but kind of as I expected, the steering pattern is becoming more conducive again for EC potential as we move into mid-September. 

Yeah at this juncture I have doubts as well, however, just enough in place to keep me a bit intrigued. Once this is able to develop and organize and where we see the center we'll have a substantially better idea of what to expect long-term.

[Cyclone-68]

Oh God please let it be so. Don’t want anyone killed or injured just want a big storm 

[Chrisrotary12]

So not rooting for Hugo 2.0?

[Prismshine Productions]

So not rooting for Hugo 2.0?

As a former South Carolina resident fuck no

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Fuck yeah

[MJO812]

Euro shreds this storm in the Caribbean 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

As a former South Carolina resident fuck no

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

An aunt that lived in Columbia at the time would tell us about how Hugo shook the lines more than they had ever seen. 

[H2Otown_WX]

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

One big change to notice as well is how much farther south this is being modeled. Pretty substantial really. If that front doesn't capture the system there would be a path towards the coast.

Guhhhh, stop making up synoptic scenarios

[Torch Tiger]

[Torch Tiger]

SC hit earlier, to NE hit (ACK-MVY).   LFG!

[Torch Tiger]

that's the U/L look we want, that meridonal streak across the lakes bent like that.  Not a perfect setup but good to see a few scenarios pop up for peak.   Erin was the reverse. 

Wish we could get that setup

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Start a thread

[Typhoon Tip]

The indices ( at least from CPC ) still bear some modest signal, but the operational runs aren't really getting any memos. 

They seem to favor a bounce back flat ridge and/or relaxation back to a base-line modest above normal heights in the east ( continent) after this weeks trough anomaly lifts out early next week.   It's after that ... late next week and beyond that is a period of any eventual interest.

It's most likely just way too early.  It may be worth it to bide time and see if or when a CPC's strong +PNA, with a shallow -NAO, begins to manifest in the operational cinemas.  Right now, from this far out, the GFS's depictions are likely just coincident and not related.  Because the stronger +d(PNA) over at Climate Prediction Center is a bit in conflict with these longer range operational handling.

[weatherwiz]

Still early in the run but 12z GFS WAYYYY south with the invest moving across the southern Tropical Atlantic...that is a sizable shift south 

[CoastalWx]

BTW Euro owned NHC and GFS for Lorena in EPAC. Luckily nobody cares.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW Euro owned NHC and GFS for Lorena in EPAC. Luckily nobody cares.

GFS was really insistent on the remnants bringing heavy rain/flash flooding into AZ/NM and western TX...oops

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Still early in the run but 12z GFS WAYYYY south with the invest moving across the southern Tropical Atlantic...that is a sizable shift south 

Might pull a 00z euro.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might pull a 00z euro.

Kind of what I'm thinking  

but until we actually get a center to pop this is all kind of minute anyways but these shifts south with the wave are noteworthy. I wonder if the modeled size being so small is a factor in this too