Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

time is running out..... sucks.  We'll get that 1/100 or 500 eventually.  2038?  2054?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This next one has a better chance than Erin did, relative to the outlook range, spanning the eastern continent and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.   Note, better chance does not mean this:  

The CPC's handling of the PNA index has it rising positive, while the NAO is bucking for a vague negative.  That's all but a 101 requirement, particularly if the latter is over the western limb.  To soon to know if that's the case but just numerically, this is a better canvas.   Erin never even had an easel.  

Anyway, the idea of a warm up mid month still does not have a lot of legs in the index spread. It matters.  If we succeed in doing so, this idea dries up.  Can't really have both. 

A pattern relaxation will likely ensue beyond this trough anomaly deal through the Lakes.   The operational runs will tend to bounce the pattern aggressively the other direction, and by that I mean too much.  The index/PNA rising seems in conflict here.  I could see the flow relaxing, and by virtue of that... yeah, warming, but uuusually, a rising PNA doesn't set the table for an eastern/WAR -like response.   It's interesting... a period of some competing indicators. I tend to lean on the ensembles, however.

So, meanwhile,  the MDR reactivates here over this week.  Any TC born out of that may find a position not as polarward as the GFS is attempting by circa D6/7.   This is also a known bias at long leads regarding operational guidance, definitely with that particular model.  Having too much "beta drift" (sus therein), it likes to move these systems into the Sargasso Sea while maintaining a west track at like 36 N..   Compensating for these behavior biases may see a TC closer to the NE Windward Islands by D6 or 7 ... which also fits the EPS, although I that forecast system seems a little weak considering the favorable main metrics of lowering shear, ample OHC, and lowering SAL.   

All these facets ... mmm, I won't calling them compelling just yet. Too strong. But, I'm willing to actually look at the models this time.  LOL