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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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45 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Didn’t we just get a lesson in weenie range from Erin. Don’t even look at ops till inside 120 hours 

Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up. 

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I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. 
 

56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Erin taking a beating today 

Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looked liie shit since late yesterday. 

I see they upgraded to TS warnings for Cape Hatteras but the structure of Erin is getting destroyed and everything is essentially into the eastern quadrant of the storm. I know the wind field will expand and reconfigure as Erin grows but its entirely possible they barely get to TS force winds even to Cape Hatteras. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. 
 

Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn. 

Yeah we'll have to see if Erin either tries to re-strengthen some as it moves north or at least re-develops a better structure. But these two factors, particularly the later could have big impacts on what transpires across the outer banks of NC and even Nantucket. In addition to the shear and dry air you have to wonder if just sitting over the same area for so long is playing a factor too. 

It's even difficult to pinpoint the centers exact movement too. Almost looks like it could be more of a NNW heading but the center is also kind of jumping around a bit. 

 

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28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department. 

Yeah it’s not looking good. I have my peak season forecast due tomorrow and I’m still not sure which direction I’ll go in. 

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