WxWatcher007 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: Didn’t we just get a lesson in weenie range from Erin. Don’t even look at ops till inside 120 hours Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Do any of the other current tropical waves have a shot at the east coast or are they doomed to follow the Erin path again? Edit: or is it just too early to make that determination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 22 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Do any of the other current tropical waves have a shot at the east coast or are they doomed to follow the Erin path again? Edit: or is it just too early to make that determination? Cane season over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Cane season over. Yikes. I don’t feel this shot down since I asked Julie Adam’s to the prom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 hours ago, ROOSTA said: "TURN ON ANYTHING YOU'LL GET IT." "THIS PLACE SURE GONE CRAZY." This is the best hurricane tracking map to use... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Yikes. I don’t feel this shot down since I asked Julie Adam’s to the prom Alright maybe not over, but not sure much happens with Ferdy or whatver the name is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Erin taking a beating today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Cane season over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Erin taking a beating today Looked liie shit since late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. 56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Erin taking a beating today Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looked liie shit since late yesterday. I see they upgraded to TS warnings for Cape Hatteras but the structure of Erin is getting destroyed and everything is essentially into the eastern quadrant of the storm. I know the wind field will expand and reconfigure as Erin grows but its entirely possible they barely get to TS force winds even to Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah the euro has some nasty winds to Cape Cod. Decent pressure gradient will form as it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn. Yeah we'll have to see if Erin either tries to re-strengthen some as it moves north or at least re-develops a better structure. But these two factors, particularly the later could have big impacts on what transpires across the outer banks of NC and even Nantucket. In addition to the shear and dry air you have to wonder if just sitting over the same area for so long is playing a factor too. It's even difficult to pinpoint the centers exact movement too. Almost looks like it could be more of a NNW heading but the center is also kind of jumping around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department. Yeah it’s not looking good. I have my peak season forecast due tomorrow and I’m still not sure which direction I’ll go in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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