Tracking the tropics - 2025

[UnitedWx]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im feeling

 

[CoastalWx]

That’s fine, but I guess enjoy wasting your time. Again go back to the pattern that gets canes up here. We do not have it.

[CT Rain]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s fine, but I guess enjoy wasting your time. Again go back to the pattern that gets canes up here. We do not have it.

It's sort of the opposite too.... want a big pig ridge over Newfoundland and instead we've got a really anomalous ULL lol

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's sort of the opposite too.... want a big pig ridge over Newfoundland and instead we've got a really anomalous ULL lol

Right lol. Good luck with that.

[SouthCoastMA]

This is a classic track, splitting the uprights between ACK and Bermuda. Lock it in

[Typhoon Tip]

Like was said 8 days ago or whenever it was.  Nothing's changed since, unfortunately, for TC enthusiasm.  

Unless there is a west oriented -D(NAO),whilst a semi-persistent trough positioned/repositions along 90W, any outlook for bringing TCs up along the EC is not well-enough correlated using climatology.  Any depiction at D8+ ( go wonder...) is more likely based on model 'beta-drift', a force that emerges by a complex interaction that is too esoteric to get into but it pulls systems toward the NW.  Most of the time, the other forces are strong enough that the beta scaling doesn't get noticed, but at long ranges in the guidance... the resolution for those is lost and that leaves beta as proxy over cyclone motion.  So you get wonky aspects like a TC tunneling through a ridge with no steering fields.  

In other words, ...not likely to happen.   Doesn't stop the slew of posts in here warning civility of impending doom [place eye rolling emoji here], no but hey. Nothing wrong with living in the realm of model fantasies.  People need their distractions.  So long as it's kept separate.   I suppose what annoys others is when it's apparently not kept separate.  Some don't know any better but have access to the tech.   This is where society gets delicious.. the phenomenon of bulk density populace having access to information. 

Uh oh..  digression formulating.    Information is like gasoline.  Highly volatile substance that has explosive capacity.  Normally, it is fed in careful predetermined doses to a machine that converts that potential energy to turn its gears..etc.  But, the modern man ... several generations deep after the Industrial Revolution, has dumbed down to dangerously detached and increasingly dysfunctional machinery in the head (deferential and differential objective analytic intelligence, but we won't go there for now).   So the dosing of information vastly surpasses what thee machine can really consume ... So what is left?  a ton of volatility and explosions ( these are metaphors, btw - ) taking place.

One such explosion: We've gotten the U.S. into a state of teetering social order.  Floating a proverbial lit match under the Constitution by voter mentality-machinery that not just prefers fake news and appeasing information over reality, but has tons of access to enormous fuel with no constraints on dosing.

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't worry too much about where the storm is relative to guidance right now (too far north, south, etc). Erin is still in the initial phases of development and organization and there is going to be a lot of wobbling going on. Once Erin gets closer to hurricane state with a more well-defined center.

Anyways rather minute because does it really matter if it starts recurving at 60W or 70W...the pattern over the East its going to get scooped OTS but yes Atlantic Canada can't be ruled out. This is 0.000000000000000001% for East Coast.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

It's sort of the opposite too.... want a big pig ridge over Newfoundland and instead we've got a really anomalous ULL lol

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Right lol. Good luck with that.

I mean…this says it all.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NSwx said:

Better than tracking endless days of sunshine, this is a weather forum after all lol

 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't worry too much about where the storm is relative to guidance right now (too far north, south, etc). Erin is still in the initial phases of development and organization and there is going to be a lot of wobbling going on. Once Erin gets closer to hurricane state with a more well-defined center.

Anyways rather minute because does it really matter if it starts recurving at 60W or 70W...the pattern over the East its going to get scooped OTS but yes Atlantic Canada can't be ruled out. This is 0.000000000000000001% for East Coast.

I know tropical is an imby sport to most here, but some do forget that we have Atlantic Canada posters too. While the pattern isn’t conducive for the EC, the maritimes have more wiggle room and NS and especially Newfoundland are still squarely in watch territory right now. The exact parabolic curve matters to them.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Well..at least you guys saved me (us) from getting emotionally involved with this 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I know tropical is an imby sport to most here, but some do forget that we have Atlantic Canada posters too. While the pattern isn’t conducive for the EC, the maritimes have more wiggle room and NS and especially Newfoundland are still squarely in watch territory right now. The exact parabolic curve matters to them.

 

yup...something to certainly watch for them and as you've stated a few times they have been a real magnet these past few years. Something which could also end up heavily influencing the weather pattern here for the last week of August.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup...something to certainly watch for them and as you've stated a few times they have been a real magnet these past few years. Something which could also end up heavily influencing the weather pattern here for the last week of August.

The maritimes have been on a generational run. Seriously. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

It's sort of the opposite too.... want a big pig ridge over Newfoundland and instead we've got a really anomalous ULL lol

While I understand some folks wanting to fantasize, especially during pitifully boring times, in the history of East Coast hurricane forecasting, nothing has changed!  The major pattern players are always the same, as Ryan, Tip and Coastal have pointed out; anomalous positive heights in the northwest Atlantic (Newfound wheel) and troughing moving east or digging southeast from TN/OH valley region.  There are other setups that can tease a coastal run, but they inevitably bend east/northeast.  Of all the SNE storm patterns, the hurricane threat pattern is actually one of the easiest to pick out!  And this setup would need massive changes to morph into meaningful threat.  Forget about tracking every little shift in Erin's track.  Look north and west for the answer!

[ineedsnow]

12Z hurricane models shifted and are on the left side of the GEFS

[CoastalWx]

There is not one EPs member near SNE. Move on folks.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12Z hurricane models shifted and are on the left side of the GEFS

All it means is more an abrupt turn to the right.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All it means is more an abrupt turn to the right.

It's coming.. 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is not one EPs member near SNE. Move on folks.

Did you look at 6z unless they all turned right after that.. some might have been good 

[Sn0waddict]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Did you look at 6z unless they all turned right after that.. some might have been good 

Are you just blatantly ignoring what all the meteorologists have posted above you lol

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Are you just blatantly ignoring what all the meteorologists have posted above you lol

Yes I am.. looking at trends..  to the west is looking better just have to get rid of that crap to the NE 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Yes I am.. looking at trends..  to the west is looking better just have to get rid of that crap to the NE 

That's a lot ot get rid of lol

[jbenedet]

If you have the 6z EPS lat/long (TC position) @ hr 144, but 6z GEFS ULL intensity over eastern canada @ hr 144, that is a very interesting final solution...

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

All it means is more an abrupt turn to the right.

hispaniola shred? 

[forkyfork]

is this even a tropical storm right now

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

is this even a tropical storm right now

I was thinking about the 'counting eggs before they hatch, wah wah wahhh' phenomenon this morning.   consternation and quibbling over who/what/where gets their TC and there isn't one.   

hiding in modeling virtual realm. 

Right now 'Erin' carving its way through a nasty dry and probably SAL contaminated space and it's got a ways to go.  ...As already noted by NHC, this toxic air is likely being ingested. 

 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

is this even a tropical storm right now

SAL baby

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Yes I am.. looking at trends..  to the west is looking better just have to get rid of that crap to the NE 

Shine on you weenie diamond.

[WxWatcher007]

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs east of Bermuda. Keep tracking!