Tropical Storm Erin - 45 mph - W @ 20

[WxWatcher007]

Erin is rocketing along in the tropical Atlantic tonight, and despite a day of convective challenges the system is generating some deeper convection. 

As of now, Erin continues to tick south of forecast, and models think this south of due west motion will continue for a little longer. 

This is reflected in the subtle changes in the NHC track, which has ticked south over time. 

This shift that increased the odds that the Windward Islands, USVI, and PR receive indirect impacts, and depending on the extent and amplitude of the Atlantic ridge, it may have longer term consequences. 

Currently, the odds overwhelmingly favor Erin recurves before reaching the U.S. east coast. Using the Euro, I want to illustrate why. 

(sorry about the gif size lol) 

The models have been trending toward more of an Atlantic Canada risk, but of course we're far from knowing too much that far out. 

[GaWx]

Credit to a poster at S2K for this. Note especially how strong 3 of them get (to MH strength):

18z hurricane models, in 126 hours (00z 8/18):
 

• HWRF: 955 mb, 104 kt, 21.7N 62.0W
• HMON: 954 mb, 103 kt, 22.2N 62.9W
• HAFS-A: 942 mb, 119 kt, 20.5N 65.6W
• HAFS-B: 972 mb, 78 kt, 21.1N 65.7W

[TheDreamTraveler]

Erin ain't looking so hot. But honestly that may be good to allow it to move more westward over time if it stays extremely weak.

[Windspeed]

Hello, yee old farts. It's been a while. Looks like Erin managed to shake off the drier air to the north by closing off a nice bubble and pocket of moist air in the 850 to 500 hpa layers with continued convective bursting near low level vorticity this past evening. It has managed to do this with relatively marginal SSTs (26°-27°C range) since leaving the Cabo Verdes. The COC will be moving into 27°+C during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Erin should continue organizing, and it's pretty clear this system will become the first Atlantic major hurricane for 2025 in a few days' time.

Downstream implications for land interaction are still too early. Granted, it may swing and miss the Eastern CONUS, but there remains some uncertainty for Bermuda and even the Canadian Maritimes depending on trough interaction. Otherwise, Erin should be a powerful CV long-tracker and ACE machine.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: recurves safely from Conus but further W at 70.3+…so, this would be good news for Bermuda, too:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 0 16.4N 39.2W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.08.2025 12 15.8N 41.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 24 15.9N 44.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.8N 47.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 15.08.2025 48 18.0N 50.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 60 19.0N 53.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 72 19.7N 57.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.3N 60.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 96 21.0N 62.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2025 108 21.7N 65.6W 999 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 120 22.7N 67.2W 998 43
1200UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.3W 996 45
0000UTC 19.08.2025 144 26.6N 69.4W 993 49
1200UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.6N 70.1W 989 48
0000UTC 20.08.2025 168 30.7N 70.3W 984 49

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS and CMC are both very close to Bermuda.

Edit: 0Z Euro avoids all land in the W basin with it going ~250 miles W of Bermuda.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Hello, yee old farts. It's been a while. Looks like Erin managed to shake off the drier air to the north by closing off a nice bubble and pocket of moist air in the 850 to 500 hpa layers with continued convective bursting near low level vorticity this past evening. It has managed to do this with relatively marginal SSTs (26°-27°C range) since leaving the Cabo Verdes. The COC will be moving into 27°+C during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Erin should continue organizing, and it's pretty clear this system will become the first Atlantic major hurricane for 2025 in a few days' time.

Downstream implications for land interaction are still too early. Granted, it may swing and miss the Eastern CONUS, but there remains some uncertainty for Bermuda and even the Canadian Maritimes depending on trough interaction. Otherwise, Erin should be a powerful CV long-tracker and ACE machine.

Agree concerning those land features. This was never much of a concern for the US IMHO.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

@BarryStantonGBPAny update from the guru, Mr. Lezak? 
 The last I saw from him was this incredibly bold call, a likely SC/NC target. Is he still targeting there? Thanks

 

I got this from someone who receives updates from Lezak’s group:

The latest model runs are narrowing in on a likely turn out to sea for Tropical Storm Erin. However, the European model suite continues to suggest a “too close for comfort” track near the Carolinas.

Because of this, residents and interests along the Carolina coast and the broader East Coast should monitor Erin closely over the coming days. While an offshore track is currently favored, subtle shifts in the pattern could still bring impacts closer to shore.

For those who are interested, he bases his forecasts on cycles. This paper describes the foundations of his approach.

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I got this from someone who receives updates from Lezak’s group:

The latest model runs are narrowing in on a likely turn out to sea for Tropical Storm Erin. However, the European model suite continues to suggest a “too close for comfort” track near the Carolinas.

Because of this, residents and interests along the Carolina coast and the broader East Coast should monitor Erin closely over the coming days. While an offshore track is currently favored, subtle shifts in the pattern could still bring impacts closer to shore.

For those who are interested, he bases his forecasts on cycles. This paper describes the foundations of his approach.

 

 

Edouard redux tbh

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

source for that chart?

 

His site 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Edouard redux tbh

I don't think it will come as close to New England as Edouard did.

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I got this from someone who receives updates from Lezak’s group:

The latest model runs are narrowing in on a likely turn out to sea for Tropical Storm Erin. However, the European model suite continues to suggest a “too close for comfort” track near the Carolinas.

Because of this, residents and interests along the Carolina coast and the broader East Coast should monitor Erin closely over the coming days. While an offshore track is currently favored, subtle shifts in the pattern could still bring impacts closer to shore.

For those who are interested, he bases his forecasts on cycles. This paper describes the foundations of his approach.

 

 

This is click bait fodder and a waste of time.  It's intended to get website traffic. Quite frankly in my opinion in a meteorological culture / community its created fabricated stories that cause unnecessary anxiety and concern.  This is the type of nonsense that causes people not to take "Real Dangers" seriously and potentially cause great harm all in the name of "fame" or "making money through clicks"  There is very little in any support for ideas posted above at this time from what I can see. This is a waste. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is click bait fodder and a waste of time.  It's intended to get website traffic. Quite frankly in my opinion in a meteorological culture / community its created fabricated stories that cause unnecessary anxiety and concern.  This is the type of nonsense that causes people not to take "Real Dangers" seriously and potentially cause great harm all in the name of "fame" or "making money through clicks"  There is very little in any support for ideas posted above at this time from what I can see. This is a waste. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will come as close to New England as Edouard did.

Were you in ed

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, BarryStantonGBP said:

Were you in ed

Noone was, unless you lived in a vessel ouside of the BM. I have lived in NE my entire life, though. I remember all of the hype for what ended up being yet another wide-right.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Noone was, unless you lived in a vessel ouside of the BM. I have lived in NE my entire life, though. I remember all of the hype for what ended up being yet another wide-right.

So Ed was a nothingburger

Got it

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So Ed was a nothingburger

Got it

One thing I have learned is to always assume a harder recurve with respect to systems paralleling the coast, UNLESS there is a patently obvious reason not to, such as vigorous ULL absorbing the system....which are exceptionally rare occurences. This is why major NE strikes are so exceedingly rare.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is click bait fodder and a waste of time.  It's intended to get website traffic. Quite frankly in my opinion in a meteorological culture / community its created fabricated stories that cause unnecessary anxiety and concern.  This is the type of nonsense that causes people not to take "Real Dangers" seriously and potentially cause great harm all in the name of "fame" or "making money through clicks"  There is very little in any support for ideas posted above at this time from what I can see. This is a waste. 

I agree with your overall point. There is a lot of sensationalism e.g., on X. Unfortunately, it's not called out effectively. Most meteorologists who call it out point to posts by non-meteorologists, while ignoring the sometimes even more sensationalist posts of their peers. 

As for Lezak, I don't follow him. As I saw someone had inquired earlier and I had some information that had been sent to me, I posted it. He has an interesting hypothesis (to his credit, he published on it), but I am not sure how well it works in practice. I haven't seen any independent verification. I don't place much weight on self-made claims (much as I didn't when the so-called Panasonic Model was described as superior to the ECMWF, but its forecasts and verification were never made publicly available). 

Indeed, upon looking into his X posts, he suggests that there's a 41-day cycle this year. So, for fun, I constructed tables starting at January 1 and January 7 for NYC's high temperatures to see if there was a consistent warm or cold pattern (pattern is more important than the specific temperatures, which serve as a proxy) consistent with his cycle (null hypothesis: there isn't). Here's what I found and the null hypothesis stands:

The same variability exists when it comes to precipitation.

That's the last I'll say on Lezak's approach. 

Back to the Tropics, I agree with the recurvature idea. If anything, the case for recurvature has strengthened in recent days, as the trough in eastern Canada looks more impressive on the later guidance. Recurvature will probably occur west of Bermuda but safely off the U.S. East Coast. Further, as the peak of Atlantic hurricane season is approaching and also given the MJO, it isn't too surprising to see the Atlantic come to life.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.

[RevWarReenactor]

12 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So Ed was a nothingburger

Got it

Originally it showed it hitting NJ/NYC and held that idea for a bit. So it caused a good bit of concern. I was on the Jersey beaches when it was closest and the waves were crazy and you could look out and just see black. Cape Cod did got hit a bit from it. From a tracking perspective it was a lot of fun, even if it was essentially a no show. 

[Wannabehippie]

55 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

His site 

Of course he would NEVER manipulate data to make it look like he is the best right?

[GaWx]

 From Storm 2K regarding 6Z tropical models: peaks as a MH on 3 of 4

06z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/112kt
HMON = 979mb/95kt
HAFS-A = 943mb/119kt
HAFS-B = 939mb/121kt

[BarryStantonGBP]

27 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Originally it showed it hitting NJ/NYC and held that idea for a bit. So it caused a good bit of concern. I was on the Jersey beaches when it was closest and the waves were crazy and you could look out and just see black. Cape Cod did got hit a bit from it. From a tracking perspective it was a lot of fun, even if it was essentially a no show. 

How did ed compare to lee

[BarryStantonGBP]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.

GONZALO lad… all that hype, thought it was gonna smash us like ’87. Nan’s in Plymouth hoarding Rich Tea, neighbours lashing sandbags on the Co-Op door.

Then it just peters out like some bargain-bin Dominican patio party. Plastic chairs blowin’ over in a breeze, reggaeton still blaring though there’s only two soggy blokes left dancing.

 

[MJO812]

[BarryStantonGBP]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with your overall point. There is a lot of sensationalism e.g., on X. Unfortunately, it's not called out effectively. Most meteorologists who call it out point to posts by non-meteorologists, while ignoring the sometimes even more sensationalist posts of their peers. 

As for Lezak, I don't follow him. As I saw someone had inquired earlier and I had some information that had been sent to me, I posted it. He has an interesting hypothesis (to his credit, he published on it), but I am not sure how well it works in practice. I haven't seen any independent verification. I don't place much weight on self-made claims (much as I didn't when the so-called Panasonic Model was described as superior to the ECMWF, but its forecasts and verification were never made publicly available). 

Indeed, upon looking into his X posts, he suggests that there's a 41-day cycle this year. So, for fun, I constructed tables starting at January 1 and January 7 for NYC's high temperatures to see if there was a consistent warm or cold pattern consistent with his cycle (null hypothesis: there isn't). Here's what I found and the null hypothesis stands:

The same variability exists when it comes to precipitation.

That's the last I'll say on Lezak's approach. 

Back to the Tropics, I agree with the recurvature idea. If anything, the case for recurvature has strengthened in recent days, as the trough in eastern Canada looks more impressive on the later guidance. Recurvature will probably occur west of Bermuda but safely off the U.S. East Coast. Further, as the peak of Atlantic hurricane season is approaching and also given the MJO, it isn't too surprising to see the Atlantic come to life.

fair play lads, but you’re testing the wrong thing

 

nyc high temps to “debunk” the lrc is like checking the prem table by counting corners

the lrc isn’t “day 41 = same temperature”

it’s “the autumn pattern locks in, then the same set-ups (trough/ridge/block/jet kinks) keep rocking up on a ~40–60 day lap”

you verify it at 500mb and with storm windows/corridors, not with a cvs receipt of max temps

 

“self-made claims”? mate the method’s published, the cycle length wobbles, and nobody said it’s a metronome

it’s a map for when/where to watch, not a magic dice roll for your postcode

 

clickbait on x? agree, there’s plenty

doesn’t mean pattern work = clickbait

don’t bin the whole pub ‘cause one lad sang off key

 

recurvature chat? sound. if there’s a fat canada trough carving a weakness, she’ll hook. lrc doesn’t fight the synoptics, it anticipates the window they turn up in

 

tl;dr:

lrc = dates + corridors from a recurring autumn blueprint

verify with 500mb fingerprints & repeat setups, not surface highs

cycle ≠ clock, it breathes (41ish this year ≠ tattoo)

use it to spot the window, then let the guidance pick the lane

 

now if you’ll excuse me

 

cam on erin

bam bam bam

(score some over-water goals, lass)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, MJO812 said:

fat swells ahead for the EC innit lad

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can their cone could be a bit wider, lol

[Diggiebot]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.

Same. I was 10. I went to bed at 4-5 pm so I could wake up when the storm hit in the overnight hours and not miss anything. When I woke up the news was saying how the storm took a last minute hard right…..

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Yes, don't be too sold on a recurve yet.

 This will be a good test of Lezak and thus I feel it should be followed since you’ve been pushing him so hard. A potential positive thing I can say is that he may not be wishy washy. He said that a NC or SC hit is a likely target. I consider that an outright prediction even though he didn’t say it was a near certainty. Nothing can be a near certainty this far out. If it misses there and isn’t close, I’ll consider it a bust. If it were to hit there, I’d give him kudos for his prog.

Edit: If it were to barely miss, I’d at least give him a pass. It will also be interesting to see how forthright he is should this prog end up busting. Would he downplay it/give excuses or would he be honest and call it a bust?