Hurricane Erin: 140 MPH - 937 mb - NW @ 10

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A halficane! That is the worst looking cat 4 I've ever seen structurally (realistically has probably dropped back down to cat 3). Should put the lid on intensity, probably for the rest of Erin's truck across the Atlantic 

It’s going through another EWRC and there’s some Northerly shear.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET gets to only 115 miles SE of Cape Hatteras at hour 72, when it has it still down at 950 mb!

[NJwx85]

IR presentation is improving again as deep convection is wrapping around the Western half.

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 24.0°N 71.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
 

[yoda]

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
 
Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than 
earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over 
the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly 
shear.  An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the 
dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc 
clouds emanating northwestward from the system.  The northerly 
shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin.  
The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from 
another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours.  This 
intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective 
values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has 
resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt.  
The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged.  Over 
the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move 
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western 
side of a mid-level anticyclone.  Later in the forecast period, an 
approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that 
the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary.  However, 
given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over 
the system, not much additional strengthening is likely.  In any 
event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least 
the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status 
through the middle of the week.  The official intensity forecast is 
at the high end of the model guidance.
  
Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean 
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted 
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in 
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk 
of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field 
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind 
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola 
this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the 
southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas.  Flash and 
urban flooding are possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos 
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas 
tonight through Tuesday.
 
3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip 
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of 
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, 
local authorities, and beach warning flags. 
 
4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in 
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where 
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.  Interests in 
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are 
possible beginning on Thursday.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 24.0N  71.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 24.9N  71.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 26.5N  72.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 28.4N  73.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 30.5N  73.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 32.7N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 34.8N  71.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 41.0N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[WxWatcher007]

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.

Lezak may get a win for his “likely Carolinas” prediction.

*Edited for name typo

@BarryStantonGBP

[wthrmn654]

Consensus model has shifted both north and west this time around!  The amount of shifting past few days is remarkable!

 

Euro cmc, and even some of the more reliable hurricane models had a decent shift west/ north at 12z

[Eskimo Joe]

Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island.

[wthrmn654]

Gfs another noticeable shift west and north.... lol this reminds me of winter storms the past few years non stop shifts...

[Floydbuster]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island.

We were starting to get some minor over wash at jones beach Ny. Expecting a boardwalk basher on Thursday. The pressure gradient and resulting strong NE winds will pile water up on the south shore of LI and lead to major inundation. Huge swells on top of above normal

tides. This may be the most impactful coastal event in years. 

[Silver Meteor]

The Outer Banks are going to get whacked. Thank god they're not going to take a direct hit. Always a gamble out there. 

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 15
  to 20+ feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Ocracoke.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Extreme beach and coastal damage is likely along the
  oceanside, resulting in a significant threat to life and
  property. Large dangerous waves will likely inundate and destroy
  protective dune structures. Severe flooding will likely extend
  inland from the waterfront causing flooding of many homes and
  businesses with some structural damage possible. Numerous roads
  will likely be impassable under several feet of water and
  vehicles will likely be submerged. Actions will need to be taken
  to protect life and property. Very dangerous swimming and
  surfing conditions expected, as well as the wave action
  resulting in significant beach erosion.

[NJwx85]

For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning. 

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning. 

Icon and euro AI for the win 

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Weakening a bit, and going NW now.

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

Weakening a bit, and going NW now.

recon shows it south of the 8pm advisory

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Slezak may get a win for his “likely Carolinas” prediction.

@BarryStantonGBP

All hail lezak 

[Wannabehippie]

Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png

[marsman]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png

First thing that came to mind: (or "cane to mind"... get it?) I'll show myself out. 

edit: alright... sampling? 

[wthrmn654]

At 0000 UTC, 19 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24°N and 71.4°W. The current intensity was 115 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb.

[wthrmn654]

00z, looks like nhc tracks to far east at first glance.

More so when it is starting the north east turn 

[Rhino16]

23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png

They list the next day’s flights here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Today’s are here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. HURRICANE ERIN

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77

18/1600Z

AFXXX 1705A ERIN

18/1400Z

NA

18/1545Z TO 18/2015Z

SFC TO 10,000 FT

BUOY DEPLOYMENT

WRA ACTIVATION

it seems like they were deploying buoys, i guess to sample stuff.

[Wannabehippie]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 24.4°N 71.7°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

#FreeBarry