August 2025 General Discussion

[sbnwx85]

To be fair, the drama this week has me reading everyone’s posts during an otherwise slow stretch of weather.

[hawkeye_wx]

June was boring, but the last several weeks have been one of our most interesting summer stretches in years.  The recent break has been nice, although it has remained somewhat humid.  That is finally over at about 9am this morning when the strong front moves through.

[TheNiño]

This board about to be quiet AF let’s just all accept it and enjoy the nice wx lol 

[cyclone77]

Got lucky and got pegged by a rogue downpour early this morning and picked up a quick 0.16".

[Jackstraw]

On 8/21/2025 at 12:46 PM, Brian D said:

Was just perusing the models, and came across this 384 from the 12z GFS from yesterday. Pretty wild stuff. Looks like a late Oct run. 

How much did we pay for this? Just saying.  Wonder if we will see AI models really soon? Think that is being looked at, but funding will have to be allocated. I'm sure some private enterprises are working at having AI wx models. Will they be any better?? Hmmm....guess time will tell. 

To be fair any of the globals out that far could predict the Cubs winning the Super Bowl lol.  However the NHC did mention using Google DeepMind's forecast in a few of it's discussions on Erin (in an experimental capacity). I will say this. I'm strongly suspect of some the discussions coming out of our local office. They have a very "machine" like feel to them at times, especially on weekends. I'm sure it's coming big time. It's inevitable 

[Brian D]

0.35" from a stm that moved through last night bringing the monthly total to 0.91" which is well below normal. Today feels like late Sept wx moved in on a NW wind. Highs in the 60's(maybe low 70's) with 30's/40's for lows the next few days. Great football wx tho. 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

0.35" from a stm that moved through last night bringing the monthly total to 0.91" which is well below normal. Today feels like late Sept wx moved in on a NW wind. Highs in the 60's(maybe low 70's) with 30's/40's for lows the next few days. Great football wx tho. 

Too early for me.  50s at night is great, but not even reaching 70 in the middle of the afternoon is a bit much.  Plus lake effect clouds.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

To be fair any of the globals out that far could predict the Cubs winning the Super Bowl lol.  However the NHC did mention using Google DeepMind's forecast in a few of it's discussions on Erin (in an experimental capacity). I will say this. I'm strongly suspect of some the discussions coming out of our local office. They have a very "machine" like feel to them at times, especially on weekends. I'm sure it's coming big time. It's inevitable 

This was posted on IND's fb page.  Make of it what you will.

 

[Chinook]

two recent sunsets

 

[Chinook]

some heavy rain getting close to downtown Detroit

[Torchageddon]

Sat nights are the new storm times. Last week I got my 22nd storm late into the wee hours of Sun but tonight it may be a dud. The line was broken and I hit the gap. At 8 it was eerie darkness like a sickly pale colour in the sky - my unit showed 0 lux but seemed brighter than that.

Despite the clouds the air was great like cottage wood mix with grass trimmings. 27C for a high.

[cyclone77]

Made it all the way down to 49.6 here this morning.  So close to the first 40s of the season.

[Brian D]

Looks like top 5 cool mornings on tap tomorrow, and Tues. Frost adv issued. Possible with low max temps, as well, today, and tomorrow. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Crisp fall days are here. Dewpoint down to 41 at msp.

[sbnwx85]

Cranking the lake effect machine in late August. It’s gotta be a good sign for winter.

[IWXwx]

7 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Cranking the lake effect machine in late August. It’s gotta be a good sign for winter.

Do you really want LE rain? Wouldn't you want the lake to be as warm as possible going into the winter season? LE rain in August means that air temps are really cool, which would begin a drop in water temps and lessen the differential as we go into the cool/cold seasons. Asking because I don't know the answer.

[A-L-E-K]

can't imagine it's consequential much either way

[WestMichigan]

On 8/23/2025 at 8:42 PM, Chinook said:

some heavy rain getting close to downtown Detroit

I drove through that stuff in the Toledo area on my way back from PA Saturday evening.  It rained so hard for about 5 minutes people were pulling off interstate.  I was doing about 10-15MPH and the lane lines were barely visible.

[Stebo]

Going up north this weekend the point and click forecast is as follows:

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 71.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

 

That 43 is going to be crisp, I do hope we hit the 77 because I do wanna go to the beach one of the days up there.

[nvck]

am I crazy or is anyone else seeing a little color on the leaves 

can anyone else at 43.5+ N confirm lol

[A-L-E-K]

not imby

[Brian D]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

can't imagine it's consequential much either way

It depends on whether starting the cooler wx this early, and we see more of it thru Sept. Then it will. Recent years have seen some pretty large LES dumps due to very warm waters going into the winter season. Waters do cool pretty quickly if colder air stays around long enough. Hope that's the case this year. Better to have manageable LES events than up to your roof in one event.

[Brian D]

Chilly day yesterday. Low max temps; I-Falls 62 (8th), Hibbing 57 (3rd), Duluth 57 (t3rd), Brainerd 65 (t6th), Ashland, WI 60 (t2nd). This morning's lows I-Falls 36 (5th), Hibbing 36 (3rd), Duluth 43 (t4th), Brainerd 44 (t7th).

[sbnwx85]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Do you really want LE rain? Wouldn't you want the lake to be as warm as possible going into the winter season? LE rain in August means that air temps are really cool, which would begin a drop in water temps and lessen the differential as we go into the cool/cold seasons. Asking because I don't know the answer.

I see the theory but in reality it doesn’t really matter this time of year. As long as we don’t stay 20 degrees below normal until winter… and the winter brings arctic blasts over the lake in Nov, Dec, Jan we are good.
 

Locally our best lake effect events come in January, historically, as long as the lake isn’t frozen over. But that would be the result of a frigid December.

[A-L-E-K]

yup, not convinced that lake temps in august matter for LES

when it turns over, it turns over and late summer surface temps aren't going to matter

they're big and deep

[cyclone77]

Do they issue lake effect rain advisories?

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

Locally our best lake effect events come in January, historically, as long as the lake isn’t frozen over. But that would be the result of a frigid December.

Lake Michigan can produce dumps well into February, though more synoptic forcing becomes necessary the later you go it seems.  Lake Eerie OTOH typically shuts down after any prolonged cold.

[bowtie`]

Consistent