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August 2025 General Discussion


Brian D
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On 8/21/2025 at 12:46 PM, Brian D said:

Was just perusing the models, and came across this 384 from the 12z GFS from yesterday. Pretty wild stuff. Looks like a late Oct run. :lol:

How much did we pay for this? Just saying.  Wonder if we will see AI models really soon? Think that is being looked at, but funding will have to be allocated. I'm sure some private enterprises are working at having AI wx models. Will they be any better?? Hmmm....guess time will tell. 

12z GFS Aug 20.png

To be fair any of the globals out that far could predict the Cubs winning the Super Bowl lol.  However the NHC did mention using Google DeepMind's forecast in a few of it's discussions on Erin (in an experimental capacity). I will say this. I'm strongly suspect of some the discussions coming out of our local office. They have a very "machine" like feel to them at times, especially on weekends. I'm sure it's coming big time. It's inevitable :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

0.35" from a stm that moved through last night bringing the monthly total to 0.91" which is well below normal. Today feels like late Sept wx moved in on a NW wind. Highs in the 60's(maybe low 70's) with 30's/40's for lows the next few days. Great football wx tho. 

Too early for me.  50s at night is great, but not even reaching 70 in the middle of the afternoon is a bit much.  Plus lake effect clouds.

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3 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

To be fair any of the globals out that far could predict the Cubs winning the Super Bowl lol.  However the NHC did mention using Google DeepMind's forecast in a few of it's discussions on Erin (in an experimental capacity). I will say this. I'm strongly suspect of some the discussions coming out of our local office. They have a very "machine" like feel to them at times, especially on weekends. I'm sure it's coming big time. It's inevitable :ph34r:

This was posted on IND's fb page.  Make of it what you will.

 

dgdgd.jpg

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Sat nights are the new storm times. Last week I got my 22nd storm late into the wee hours of Sun but tonight it may be a dud. The line was broken and I hit the gap. At 8 it was eerie darkness like a sickly pale colour in the sky - my unit showed 0 lux but seemed brighter than that.

Despite the clouds the air was great like cottage wood mix with grass trimmings. 27C for a high.

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7 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Cranking the lake effect machine in late August. It’s gotta be a good sign for winter.

Do you really want LE rain? Wouldn't you want the lake to be as warm as possible going into the winter season? LE rain in August means that air temps are really cool, which would begin a drop in water temps and lessen the differential as we go into the cool/cold seasons. Asking because I don't know the answer.

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On 8/23/2025 at 8:42 PM, Chinook said:

some heavy rain getting close to downtown Detroit

ErHtIw2.jpeg

I drove through that stuff in the Toledo area on my way back from PA Saturday evening.  It rained so hard for about 5 minutes people were pulling off interstate.  I was doing about 10-15MPH and the lane lines were barely visible.

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Going up north this weekend the point and click forecast is as follows:

Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
 
That 43 is going to be crisp, I do hope we hit the 77 because I do wanna go to the beach one of the days up there.
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3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

can't imagine it's consequential much either way

It depends on whether starting the cooler wx this early, and we see more of it thru Sept. Then it will. Recent years have seen some pretty large LES dumps due to very warm waters going into the winter season. Waters do cool pretty quickly if colder air stays around long enough. Hope that's the case this year. Better to have manageable LES events than up to your roof in one event.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Do you really want LE rain? Wouldn't you want the lake to be as warm as possible going into the winter season? LE rain in August means that air temps are really cool, which would begin a drop in water temps and lessen the differential as we go into the cool/cold seasons. Asking because I don't know the answer.

I see the theory but in reality it doesn’t really matter this time of year. As long as we don’t stay 20 degrees below normal until winter… and the winter brings arctic blasts over the lake in Nov, Dec, Jan we are good.
 

Locally our best lake effect events come in January, historically, as long as the lake isn’t frozen over. But that would be the result of a frigid December.

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