OBS-Discussion General" 1-2" rainfall 2PM today (7/30)-2PM Fri 8/1/25 with small pockets 4-7" possible but may be just off the edge of our NYC subforum

[Dan76]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Any maps showing where the sea breeze is? 

Kind of here https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Lots of thunder

Yeah I was just working in the vegetable garden, and I heard it constantly. Seeing some signs on radar that that storm is trying to build south a little bit. Maybe we'll get some heavy rain from it. 

[Snowlover11]

not impressed so far, things are “drying up” from west milford on east. definitely gunna be a screw zone somewhere.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I was just working in the vegetable garden, and I heard it constantly. Seeing some signs on radar that that storm is trying to build south a little bit. Maybe we'll get some heavy rain from it. 

Yeah we're warned now.  Worst could just miss to my north. Will be close

[MANDA]

Outflow boundary along and south of 78.  Storms firing up along it.  Highest risk area for excessive totals and Flash Flooding sadly looks to repeat in an area that was recently hit hard....along and especially south of R78 in NJ and then into and near SI / NYC.  Areas to the NW of that especially west of 287 and along and north of 80 seem to be in an area where excessive totals and the threat for Flash Flooding is minimal and decreasing.

[Maureen]

Just got this here in Carteret

[Cyg]

Tornado warning now for that Middlesex/Union county storm.

[steve392]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you happen to have RadarScope you can see the convergence line on radar across LI. 

I do not. Let me see if my other map 8 use has something. 

 

Getting very dark in little ferry.  Son and I waiting on that cell approaching up from union county. 

[JonClaw]

13 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Cell has a small hook too

I was hoping I was wrong...

[NorthShoreWx]

Saw this about 40 minutes ago on the central NJ cell

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Just got this here in Carteret

Be careful. Hopefully, the worst will avoid you.

[ForestHillWx]

Just lost power for :30 seconds. Not sure if we are now on back up generators. 

Time to head back to chester. 

[steve392]

Lightning is insane outside, can't see it but listening to am radio fir mlb trade deadline, static us going crazy with lightning. 

[MorristownWx]

Or not 

[David-LI]

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... East central Somerset County in northern New Jersey... Northeastern Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 149 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Plainfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include... Carteret, Middlesex, Bound Brook, Colonia, Woodbridge, South Plainfield, North Plainfield, Metuchen, Dunellen, Watchung, Iselin, Sewaren, Port Reading, Avenel, and Fords.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED; MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

 

Issued by Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service

[steve392]

Quite the temp drop in Sussex county, showing 67 in sparta, nj

[NorthShoreWx]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Storms firing now around Smithtown/Hauppauge area on the boundary. 

We got fringed by that cell just to our south and caught 0.28" in the bucket in 20 minutes before it drifted slightly east.  Gonna be some serious flooding down around the Nesconset and Lake Grove area and spreading east.  Radar estimates of 2" of rain in the past 30 minutes.

[Stormlover74]

Incredible lightning

[Dark Star]

Better safe than sorry?  Is this not a typical summer Thunderstorm?  Every time we get a severe thunderstorm in NJ, the state of NJ will declare a state of emergency?  Asking, not "necessarily" criticizing...

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Better safe than sorry?  Is this not a typical summer Thunderstorm?  Every time we get a severe thunderstorm in NJ, the state of NJ will declare a state of emergency?  Asking, not "necessarily" criticizing...

it's an overreaction to the last event that overperformed and caught some off guard.

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Incredible lightning

I've been watching the incredible lightning show in the north sky. Getting a heavy downpour and some wind right now too. 

[mgerb]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Better safe than sorry?  Is this not a typical summer Thunderstorm?  Every time we get a severe thunderstorm in NJ, the state of NJ will declare a state of emergency?  Asking, not "necessarily" criticizing...

It's the flash flooding threat that's the concern. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

I've been watching the incredible lightning show in the north sky. Getting a heavy downpour and some wind right now too. 

Lightning striking all around me

[Cyg]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Better safe than sorry?  Is this not a typical summer Thunderstorm?  Every time we get a severe thunderstorm in NJ, the state of NJ will declare a state of emergency?  Asking, not "necessarily" criticizing...

Definitely not state of emergency level since storms are localized, but some areas that got hit hard on July 14th are getting walloped again with slow moving storms.

[Stormlover74]

Not much wind..yet

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not much wind..yet

I've been getting some 30 to 35mph gusts. Not too bad. 

[steve392]

Breezes picked up.  Getting dark to my west now too.  That system slowly creeping ne getting scary looking. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We got fringed by that cell just to our south and caught 0.28" in the bucket in 20 minutes before it drifted slightly east.  Gonna be some serious flooding down around the Nesconset and Lake Grove area and spreading east.  Radar estimates of 2" of rain in the past 30 minutes.

Same exact places as last August. Rt 347 area getting slammed. 

[uofmiami]

NE Queens and NW Nassau are probably going to get flood warnings in 20 or so minutes.  It's pouring in Great Neck and the line isn't moving at all.

[NorthShoreWx]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
157 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NYC103-311930-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0056.250731T1757Z-250731T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
157 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following
  county, Suffolk.

* WHEN...Until 330 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 156 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of
    rain have fallen.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to possibly 2 inches are
    expected over the area. This additional rain will result in
    minor flooding.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Centereach, Hauppauge, Stony Brook, Port Jefferson, Coram,
    Smithtown, Mount Sinai, Lake Ronkonkoma, Selden, Kings Park,
    Setauket, Nesconset, St. James, Miller Place, Lake Grove,
    Port Jefferson Station, Nissequogue, Head Of The Harbor,
    Poquott and Belle Terre.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.