August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Raining. Didn’t see this coming 

Not according to the models, perhaps, but the system to our south was close enough to be a possible "player".  Future radar was showing that a few showers would be able to penetrate the blocking high.

[steve392]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro has all-time mid-August heat in the forecast. Just using Newark as a reference point, it gets places like Newark to 102°. That ties for the warmest ever recorded for this time of year. You can also see that Central to Northern Queens could reach 100°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures August 11th through 20th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2005-08-20	102	0
-	1949-08-20	102	0
-	1944-08-20	102	0
2	2002-08-20	100	0

jfc, im so sick of this summer already.  

[lee59]

Ended up with .09 inch of rain. Pleasant surprise for the grass

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

jfc, im so sick of this summer already.  

Yeah, I enjoyed the really cool summers growing up in Long Beach that we would get every few years.

That 2010 summer really reset our whole summer pattern to much warmer. 2009 was the last time we had a cool summer here. While 2014 was our last comfortable summer, it didn’t really make it to the 2009 level of coolness. 2009 was the last top 10 coolest June and July which  was the coolest since the 1940s. 

As the recent less warm summers like 2023, 2017, and 2014 were a function of the much warmer summer climate normals. Those were still a little warmer than the long term average.

Plus 2023 and 2017 still had between 15-20 days at places like JFK with a 75° or greater dew point. So those very high dew points worked against the cooler and lower humidity summers of the past.

 

 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, steve392 said:

jfc, im so sick of this summer already.  

It ain’t sick of us! 

[donsutherland1]

New York City (Central Park) recorded its second consecutive 64° minimum temperature today. That is the second consecutive day its low temperature was below those at Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains. The last time that occurred was July 23-24, 2007. 

[steve392]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I enjoyed the really cool summers growing up in Long Beach that we would get every few years.

That 2010 summer really reset our whole summer pattern to much warmer. 2009 was the last time we had a cool summer here. While 2014 was our last comfortable summer, it didn’t really make it to the 2009 level of coolness. 2009 was the last top 10 coolest June and July which  was the coolest since the 1940s. 

As the recent less warm summers like 2023, 2017, and 2014 were a function of the much warmer summer climate normals. Those were still a little warmer than the long term average.

Plus 2023 and 2017 still had between 15-20 days at places like JFK with a 75° or greater dew point. So those very high dew points worked against the cooler and lower humidity summers of the past.

 

 

I think it's just the extreme highs like what we've gotten so much this year.  In years past you'll get hot or really warm for a most of the summer with like 4 or 5 day heatwave thrown in.  Now its 3 or 4 separate heatwaves with the high temps and humidity.  

[Sundog]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City (Central Park) recorded its second consecutive 64° minimum temperature today. That is the second consecutive day its low temperature was below those at Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains. The last time that occurred was July 23-24, 2007. 

I think the light rain may have given the park a leg up on reaching a colder overall low, I don't think the other spots got much at all, especially White Plains and Bridgeport. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

72 / 64  smoke from a distant fire today.  Clouds and front clear but smoke remains around, otherwise a nice day and the start of a 3 days beautiful weather stretch through Sunday.    Great stretch of 96 hours of weather with the smoke susbsiding and another great weekend. By Sunday the flow is coming around and heat is expanding east, setting up a war - hot week next week with potential for strong heat (95+/upper 90s) Tue - Thu.  Overall a warm-hot / humid and wetter overall period beyond next week.

 

8/7 - 8/10 :   Near normal / slightly below - dry - gorgeous weather beach, bbq's, outdoors, etc, Heat for some starts Sunday
8/11 - 8/15 :   Hot, heatwave for many - strong heat (95+) Tue- Thu.  Storms possisble towards Thu/Fri.
8/16 - Beyond :   Warm - hot / humid and wetter overall

 

[Sundog]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I enjoyed the really cool summers growing up in Long Beach that we would get every few years.

That 2010 summer really reset our whole summer pattern to much warmer. 2009 was the last time we had a cool summer here. While 2014 was our last comfortable summer, it didn’t really make it to the 2009 level of coolness. 2009 was the last top 10 coolest June and July which  was the coolest since the 1940s. 

As the recent less warm summers like 2023, 2017, and 2014 were a function of the much warmer summer climate normals. Those were still a little warmer than the long term average.

Plus 2023 and 2017 still had between 15-20 days at places like JFK with a 75° or greater dew point. So those very high dew points worked against the cooler and lower humidity summers of the past.

 

June 2009 was so cool because it basically rained the whole month correct?

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (2001) middle of the record heatwave
NYC: 104 (1918)
LGA: 99 (2001)
JFK: 96 (2001)



Lows;

EWR: 57 (1948)
NYC: 57 (1994)
LGA: 61 (1975)
JFK: 59 (2004)

Historical:

 

1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1924: A tornado caused estimated F4 damage moved southeast from south of Osseo, WI to Black River Falls, WI. One person was killed as a home was leveled and a boy was killed running to the storm cellar near the start of the path. Two people died as farm homes were swept away near the northeast edge of Black River Falls. Damage totaled $200,000 as 50 farms were hit and buildings were unroofed in the town of Northfield. The tornado followed the present route of Interstate 94.

1968: During the late afternoon and evening hours numerous severe thunderstorms developed across eastern South Dakota, but the most powerful storm moved through the Huron area. Wind gusts of an incredible 115 mph swept through the area. The force of the winds blew over a radio tower and also did major damage to area roofs and houses. Not only were the winds very strong, but hail up to the size of softballs pounded the area and four funnel clouds were sighted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Three different hailstorms struck Spearfish, SD in the same afternoon. One produced baseball size hail and the other two produced hailstones to golf ball size. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1980: Hurricane Allen bottomed out at 899 millibars (26.55 inches of mercury) while moving through the Yucatan Channel in the southeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Allen was the second lowest pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere up to that time. Allen's winds at the time were sustained at 190 mph.

1983: Sheridan, WY hit 106°, their all-time record high for August. Thunder Bay, Ontario Canada reached an all-time record high of 104.5°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degress at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Nome, Alaska: Nome records its ninth thunderstorm of the year, more than the city had observed in the previous twenty years combined. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993 continued. The main flood crest reached Cairo, IL where the river is joined by the Ohio River. No serious flooding will occur further south because the river becomes wider and deeper. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: Two complexes of thunderstorms developed over southern Minnesota and north central Nebraska. The two complexes then slowly merged with each other in time. Large hail and high winds were common in southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa with hail ranging in size from dimes to golf balls. In Cherokee County, hail damage was reported to many cars in the city of Cherokee by hail two inches in diameter. About 150 cars and 100 homes were damaged by the hail. A tornado also touched down northwest of Sibley in Osceola County, damaging several buildings at a farmstead. At the same time, a car was lifted and thrown 50 feet. Woodbury and Monona Counties were hard hit with high winds, with many winds reported at 60 to 65 mph. The Mapleton area in Monona County was particularly hard hit where a roof was blown off of a car dealership and another roof caved in at an apartment building. Severe thunderstorms struck much of the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. The costliest damage was at Prague, in Lincoln County, where 90 mph winds were reported, resulting in more than $1 million in damages. Another storm struck Thackerville, in Love County, where lightning struck a power pole, traveled through a line to a school, and started a fire that destroyed the school. Hail the size of dimes and quarters was very common across Oklahoma that day, and hail up to golf ball-size fell in Clay and Archer Counties of north Texas.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: A 33-year-old man was struck and killed under a tree at the West Falls Church, VA Metro Station as a severe thunderstorm swept through the area. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

2007: A rare and destructive F2 tornado with winds of up to 135 miles an hour whipped southwestern Brooklyn in New York. The funnel cloud was hidden in heavy rain and thus no pictures were obtained. (Ref. F2 Tornado Hits Brooklyn)

2020: The heavy rains started on the 4th from Tropical storm Isaias that brough 2.53 inches of precipitation to Springfield Park on the 4th and some areas had a lot more rain. This was followed by 4 more days of heavy rainfall in the Richmond area.(Ref. The Richmond Times Dispatch)

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I think the light rain may have given the park a leg up on reaching a colder overall low, I don't think the other spots got much at all, especially White Plains and Bridgeport. 

I agree. Without the rain, I am sure Central Park's lows would have been several degrees warmer.

[wdrag]

Modeling issues:  Sort of a bust for our no rain last night... ONLY the EPS got it right 24 hours in advance (00z/6 cycle).

In the longer range it looked bigger up through NJ/PA (my post on OH Valley low aloft) but GEFS was dry and so many forecasters opted for 20% or less chance yesterday, instead placing the 20% for today.  Then as we drew closer to yesterday, all the modeling tended to shrink southward and I gave in to the dry GEFS (my mistake), but alas the EPS still held onto a little, which is what we got up through about 40-41N latitude. See attached graphic. 

Ohio Valley had isolated 4-5" in w Central Indiana/e Central IL, with some 2"s just e of Cincinnati on the 4th-5th respectively. 

Then last night we got our minor amounts, mostly evening on previously dismissed chances.  I would say pretty deficient modeling for the northern fringe  of the ne moving rain areas. 

CoCoRaHs attached for yesterday here and IN/IL for the 4th.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

June 2009 was so cool because it basically rained the whole month correct?

Yeah, June and July 2009 were both very cool and wet summer months around the area. It was the 2nd coldest June-July period on record at LGA. Recent years have had numerous top 10 warmest.
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Top 10 Coolest June 1st through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1972-07-31	70.3	0
2	2009-07-31	71.4	0
3	1982-07-31	71.6	0
4	1978-07-31	71.9	0
5	1969-07-31	72.0	0
-	1947-07-31	72.0	0
6	1958-07-31	72.3	0
7	1940-07-31	72.5	0
8	1946-07-31	72.6	0
9	1985-07-31	72.7	0
-	1975-07-31	72.7	0
-	1950-07-31	72.7	0
10	2000-07-31	72.9	0
-	1974-07-31	72.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Top 10 Warmest June 1st through July 31st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020-07-31	79.4	0
-	2010-07-31	79.4	0
2	1994-07-31	78.1	0
3	1999-07-31	78.0	0
4	2024-07-31	77.9	0
-	2008-07-31	77.9	0
5	2013-07-31	77.7	0
6	2025-07-31	77.5	0
7	2016-07-31	77.4	0
-	1966-07-31	77.4	0
8	1952-07-31	77.3	0
9	2019-07-31	77.2	0
10	2006-07-31	77.1	0