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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Let's hope that map is wrong. I despise warm Septembers. It's a major mood kill for those who like fall.

We’ll probably see some degree of 500mb height rebound by the 2nd week of September since it’s so tough to sustain a trough in the East this time of year beyond a few weeks. 

IMG_4486.thumb.png.472050022ad85a5402c7053ab2c8f470.png

IMG_4487.thumb.png.6ac5210f3e98c3ae433f4272478b957c.png

IMG_4488.thumb.png.89c23f05f8f5875635b0dab46a8c8066.png

 

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fwiw on Erin along he NJ coast per PHI PNS yesterday... I added this in, cause I didnt see it posted.  If I erred, I apologize. 

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
703 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Delaware...

...Sussex County...
Dewey Beach                  46 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Lewes NOS                    43 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   NOS-NWLON
Lewes                        43 MPH    1142 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Rehoboth Beach               42 MPH    1134 AM 08/21   AWS
Rehoboth Beach               42 MPH    1205 PM 08/21   DAVIS
Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 41 MPH    1145 AM 08/21   DEOS2
Georgetown                   40 MPH    1105 AM 08/21   ASOS

...New Jersey...

...Atlantic County...
Atlantic City                46 MPH    0230 PM 08/21   NJWXNET
BRIGANTINE                   41 MPH    0444 PM 08/21   CWOP
1 NE Brigantine              41 MPH    0449 PM 08/21   Public

...Cape May County...
Cape May                     44 MPH    1235 PM 08/21   DAVIS
1 NW Wildwood                42 MPH    1239 PM 08/21   Public
Ocean City                   41 MPH    1115 AM 08/21   CWOP
Ocean City                   41 MPH    1157 AM 08/21   WXFLOW

...Monmouth County...
Keyport                      48 MPH    0524 AM 08/21   CWOP

...Ocean County...
Surf City                    49 MPH    0245 PM 08/21   Public
2 S Island Beach State Park  48 MPH    1014 AM 08/21   Public
Rutgers                      45 MPH    0323 PM 08/21   WXFLOW
Tuckerton                    44 MPH    0149 PM 08/21   WXFLOW
Seaside Heights              43 MPH    0817 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Harvey Cedars                43 MPH    0235 PM 08/21   NJWXNET
South Seaside Park           40 MPH    0817 AM 08/21   CWOP
Holgate                      40 MPH    1019 AM 08/21   Public
Beach Haven                  40 MPH    1021 AM 08/21   CWOP
Trixies                      40 MPH    1137 AM 08/21   WXFLOW

...Delaware...

...Maritime Stations...
19 E Fenwick Island          45 MPH    0229 PM 08/21   Buoy
1 ENE Lewes                  42 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   Buoy

...New Jersey...
9 WNW Cape May Point         45 MPH    1048 AM 08/21   Buoy
1 NNE Brigantine             44 MPH    0259 PM 08/21   Public
Sea Bright                   43 MPH    0409 AM 08/21   Public
&&

 

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The temperature dipped to 58° in Central Park this morning, making today the third consecutive day with a low of 59° or below. The last time there were three consecutive such days in August occurred exactly 18 years ago during August 20-22, 2007. 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the deep trough responsible for the cool weather in the Northeast, there is a powerful heat dome that will bring near record and record heat to parts of the Pacific Northwest.

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Sunday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +5.52 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.582 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible for JFK since they have had several last 90° days in August during recent years. But the usual warm spots like Newark can always sneak in more 90° days.

Looks like our next warm up in the long range forecasts is for mid-September. 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Minimum 05-19 (2017) 07-20 (2013) 25
Mean 06-16 09-01 76
Maximum 07-12 (2023) 10-02 (2019) 127
2024 06-21 (2024) 91 08-28 (2024) 95 67
2023 07-12 (2023) 90 09-07 (2023) 92 56
2022 05-31 (2022) 94 08-27 (2022) 91 87
2021 05-22 (2021) 94 08-27 (2021) 93 96
2020 07-02 (2020) 90 08-27 (2020) 92 55
2019 06-27 (2019) 91 10-02 (2019) 95 96
2018 06-29 (2018) 91 09-04 (2018) 93 66
2017 05-19 (2017) 92 09-24 (2017) 92 127
2016 06-22 (2016) 92 09-09 (2016) 91 78
2015 06-21 (2015) 90 09-08 (2015) 91 78
2014 06-18 (2014) 91 09-02 (2014) 92 75
2013 06-24 (2013) 90 07-20 (2013) 96 25
2012 06-20 (2012) 94 09-01 (2012) 92 72
2011 06-09 (2011) 93 08-08 (2011) 92 59
2010 05-26 (2010) 91 09-08 (2010) 92 104


 

IMG_4485.thumb.png.78fdc704cfcdf03c7e26caf548e23883.png

wow from 2014 to 2019 every year had the last 90 degree day  in September or even later (October in 2019).  In 2013 we didn't have any after 7/20 which is interesting since that was such a hot summer with a long heatwave in July to boot! That was our last 100 degree day before this June.

If JFK does not see any more 90 degree days would this be a match for 2013 since there have been no 90 degree days this year in August at the airport either? The last 90 degree day is going to be in July-- which has to be rare? 

When is the average last 90 degree day?

 

 

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49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature dipped to 58° in Central Park this morning, making today the third consecutive day with a low of 59° or below. The last time there were three consecutive such days in August occurred exactly 18 years ago during August 20-22, 2007. 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the deep trough responsible for the cool weather in the Northeast, there is a powerful heat dome that will bring near record and record heat to parts of the Pacific Northwest.

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Sunday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +5.52 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.582 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

How come the Pacific Northwest has been seeing most of the extreme heat the last few summers, Don? I feel like they are having what we had between 2010-2013?

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Enjoying the cooler weather here as my area made it to #2 on the all-time 90° day list this year at 15 days.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 5 years for 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2022 17 0
2 2025 15 132
3 2010 14 0
4 1977 13 100
5 2021 12 0
- 2020 12 2
- 2012 12 3

you were so close to number 1 though 

your area really does not get many 90 degree days, I consider 15 to be about average for here.

 

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22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are some conflicting signals. Years with early extreme heat June-early July often have a bout of heat in September. However, years with the kind of cool shots as is occurring at present during August 20-31 typically have lower monthly maximum temperatures in September.

August 20-31 had one or more lows in the 50s: Mean September maximum temperature: 86.9

All other years: Mean September maximum temperature: 89.9.

Don I was thinking this is a lot like a summer leading into an el nino, recall 1994 when we had extreme heat in June too, July was also quite hot, and it got cooler by August.

2002, another el nino lead up, had quite a different summer....

Don, was 2013-14 also an el nino winter? That was the last time JFK had their final 90 degree day in July (ironic because that was such a hot summer up until then with a long heatwave and our last 100 degree high prior to this June.)

 

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23 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I'm not so sure. Usually when we've gotten these cool stretches in August, September reminds us it's still summer. CPC's also going above for our area in September. I think we probably do get a mini heatwave, maybe 1-2 days of 90 with a bunch of upper 80 days.

it's possible, although the tendency seems to be for the heat to dump in the West.

With our  bad luck, this means we'll get a mild winter when the pattern reverses lol

 

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