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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Let's hope that map is wrong. I despise warm Septembers. It's a major mood kill for those who like fall.

We’ll probably see some degree of 500mb height rebound by the 2nd week of September since it’s so tough to sustain a trough in the East this time of year beyond a few weeks. 

IMG_4486.thumb.png.472050022ad85a5402c7053ab2c8f470.png

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IMG_4488.thumb.png.89c23f05f8f5875635b0dab46a8c8066.png

 

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fwiw on Erin along he NJ coast per PHI PNS yesterday... I added this in, cause I didnt see it posted.  If I erred, I apologize. 

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
703 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Delaware...

...Sussex County...
Dewey Beach                  46 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Lewes NOS                    43 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   NOS-NWLON
Lewes                        43 MPH    1142 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Rehoboth Beach               42 MPH    1134 AM 08/21   AWS
Rehoboth Beach               42 MPH    1205 PM 08/21   DAVIS
Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 41 MPH    1145 AM 08/21   DEOS2
Georgetown                   40 MPH    1105 AM 08/21   ASOS

...New Jersey...

...Atlantic County...
Atlantic City                46 MPH    0230 PM 08/21   NJWXNET
BRIGANTINE                   41 MPH    0444 PM 08/21   CWOP
1 NE Brigantine              41 MPH    0449 PM 08/21   Public

...Cape May County...
Cape May                     44 MPH    1235 PM 08/21   DAVIS
1 NW Wildwood                42 MPH    1239 PM 08/21   Public
Ocean City                   41 MPH    1115 AM 08/21   CWOP
Ocean City                   41 MPH    1157 AM 08/21   WXFLOW

...Monmouth County...
Keyport                      48 MPH    0524 AM 08/21   CWOP

...Ocean County...
Surf City                    49 MPH    0245 PM 08/21   Public
2 S Island Beach State Park  48 MPH    1014 AM 08/21   Public
Rutgers                      45 MPH    0323 PM 08/21   WXFLOW
Tuckerton                    44 MPH    0149 PM 08/21   WXFLOW
Seaside Heights              43 MPH    0817 AM 08/21   WXFLOW
Harvey Cedars                43 MPH    0235 PM 08/21   NJWXNET
South Seaside Park           40 MPH    0817 AM 08/21   CWOP
Holgate                      40 MPH    1019 AM 08/21   Public
Beach Haven                  40 MPH    1021 AM 08/21   CWOP
Trixies                      40 MPH    1137 AM 08/21   WXFLOW

...Delaware...

...Maritime Stations...
19 E Fenwick Island          45 MPH    0229 PM 08/21   Buoy
1 ENE Lewes                  42 MPH    1136 AM 08/21   Buoy

...New Jersey...
9 WNW Cape May Point         45 MPH    1048 AM 08/21   Buoy
1 NNE Brigantine             44 MPH    0259 PM 08/21   Public
Sea Bright                   43 MPH    0409 AM 08/21   Public
&&

 

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The temperature dipped to 58° in Central Park this morning, making today the third consecutive day with a low of 59° or below. The last time there were three consecutive such days in August occurred exactly 18 years ago during August 20-22, 2007. 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the deep trough responsible for the cool weather in the Northeast, there is a powerful heat dome that will bring near record and record heat to parts of the Pacific Northwest.

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Sunday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +5.52 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.582 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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