August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm really surprised 1995 ranks above 1993, 1993 had the more extreme heatwave and set the 90 degree record at NYC

 

Here's the breakdown:

1993:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.653

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 0.813

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 3.025

Summer Score: 1.782

1995:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.451

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 2.366

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 1.908

Summer Score: 1.841

All variables are equally weighted. Personally, I wouldn't give equal weight to each variable e.g.., I'd place greater weight on the summer mean temperature. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the breakdown:

1993:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.653

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 0.813

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 3.025

Summer Score: 1.782

1995:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.451

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 2.366

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 1.908

Summer Score: 1.841

All variables are equally weighted. Personally, I wouldn't give equal weight to each variable e.g.., I'd place greater weight on the summer mean temperature. 

ah I see where the variance comes in... Don I think you should also weigh number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days and length of maximum heatwave.

1995 only had the one 102 degree day while 1993 had an absolutely incredible 100-101-102 three day stretch in the middle of a 10 day super heatwave lol.

[winterwarlock]

89/69/94 push push

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is the rise also slower for SNE (like places in CT near the shoreline) Chris? I was amazed that Bridgeport had a higher temperature than JFK the other day, I thought they were more vulnerable to the sea breeze there.

When do you think 100 degree temperatures  at JFK might start to happen more often, like they did in the 1940s and 1950s up to 1966 Chris?

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ah I see where the variance comes in... Don I think you should also weigh number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days and length of maximum heatwave.

1995 only had the one 102 degree day while 1993 had an absolutely incredible 100-101-102 three day stretch in the middle of a 10 day super heatwave lol.

I ran the numbers for 1995 and 1993 where summer mean temperature was weighted at 50% and where the remaining 50% weight was equally divided among the other three variables. In that case, 1993 tops 1995. 2010 remains at the top.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

89/69/94 push push

I just hit 90, so it's a 6 day heat wave here!

[winterwarlock]

39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I just hit 90, so it's a 6 day heat wave here!

Same..6 day heatwave

 

91/70/94

 

We will get Sunday but tomorrow  will be close

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Highs on Sunday could reach the upper 80s. Parts of the region could reach the lower 90s. 

Noticeably cooler air will then overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday. 

The extended range guidance increasingly suggests that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.285 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[psv88]

90 today 

[uofmiami]

88.4 in Muttontown & 87.9 in Syosset for the high.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

wow 15 is the same as the number of 90 degree days at JFK, why is the number of 90 degree days increasing more rapidly there when 1) it's further north and 2) it has a south facing coast just like we do down here?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will turn cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Highs on Sunday could reach the upper 80s. Parts of the region could reach the lower 90s. 

Noticeably cooler air will then overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday. 

The extended range guidance increasingly suggests that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.285 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

looks like we are on our way to a cool AND dry month which is rare around here but especially so during the summer....

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

17 90+ days in 2022, was that more than JFK had that year Chris??

 

[Stormlover74]

88 today. Looking forward to next week's 70s

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 94
TEB: 91
EWR: 90
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
TTN: 88 * missing data
ISP: 88
LGA: 88  
JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs
ACY: 84
BLM: 81

[SACRUS]

 

NYC with its 8th high of 89 for the season.

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC with its 8th high of 89 for the season.

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

[etudiant]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

Maybe the Park guys have a little side bet going on the summer temperatures? 

[SACRUS]

26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

 

This season only New Brunswick has more 

 

89 Degree Days:

New Brnswck: 9
TTN: 5
TEB: 5
BLM: 3
EWR: 1
NYC: 8
ACY 2
ISP: 5
JFK: 1
LGA: 2
PHL: 2

[STORMANLI]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 15 is the same as the number of 90 degree days at JFK, why is the number of 90 degree days increasing more rapidly there when 1) it's further north and 2) it has a south facing coast just like we do down here?

 

Going to guess at this;

JFK is probably <1 mile from Jamaica Bay and beyond that obviously has a longer fetch seabreeze off of the larger and much deeper Atlantic Ocean. 

HVN is further from the coast and  can have a fetch of ~20 miles, Long Island Sound is not as deep. I believe in the area of 65 feet for the central area.  Maybe the Sound Breeze takes longer to develop and thus HVN can have a higher maxima before the onset. 

Other than that, I got nuttin'.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 15 is the same as the number of 90 degree days at JFK, why is the number of 90 degree days increasing more rapidly there when 1) it's further north and 2) it has a south facing coast just like we do down here?

 

My guess is that the stronger sea breeze in recent years has been also playing  a role reducing the 90° days relative to the increases at other areas. Stronger sea breeze circulation South Shore of NYC and LI.

Plus there have been several equipment moves at JFK since 1948. So it appears that the observations prior to 1995 were at warmer parts of the airport a little further from Jamaica Bay. Making it easier to record 90° days further from the sea breeze. The current location of the ASOS since 1995 is right on the water. 

JFK is so large that there is a significant difference in temperatures closer to the Ozone Park side than the current ASOS near the cooler 5 towns right on the Bay.
 

See the full location history for this station using the Historical Observing Metadata Repository.

Latitude Longitude History

LATITUDE	LONGITUDE	PRECISION	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
40.63915	-73.7639	DDddddd	1996-05-01	Present
40.63915	-73.76401	DDddddd	1995-05-01	1996-05-01
40.65	-73.78333	DDMM	1948-07-01	1995-05-01
40.65	-73.783333	DDMM	1948-06-01	1948-07-01

Elevation History

ELEVATION	ELEVATION TYPE	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
2.7	GROUND	1996-05-01	Present
3.4	GROUND	1995-05-01	1996-05-01
4.9	GROUND	1982-01-01	1995-05-01
10.1	GROUND	1958-01-01	1982-01-01
9.1	GROUND	1951-01-01	1958-01-01
6.1	GROUND	1948-07-01	1951-01-01
4.9	GROUND	1948-06-01	1948-07-01
9.8	BAROMETRIC	1996-05-01	Present

Relocation History

RELOCATION	DATE¹
.3 mi S	1957-12-18

Location Descriptions

DESCRIPTION	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
E SIDE JFK INTL AP MIDWAY BTWN RWYS 4L-22R/4R-22L AND RWYS 13L-31R/13R-31L	1995-06-27	Present
ROOF OF INTL ARRIVALS BLDG WITHIN AND 1 MI S OF PO AT JFK AIRPORT	1991-06-13	1995-06-27
0 OF PO	1948-06-01	1948-07-01

Topography Descriptions

TOPOGRAPHY	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
JAMAICA BAY WITH NUMEROUS SMALL MARSH ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN IS 5 MILES TO THE SOUTH SEPARATED BY A BARRIER SAND PENINSULA HOME TO THE ROCKAWAYS. TERRAIN AT AIRPORT COMPLEX IS FLAT WITH MUCH OF IT SANDFILL. HEAVILY POPULATED WITH CONGESTED CAR TRAVEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST.	1996-05-01	Present
JAMAICA BAY W NUMEROUS SMALL MARSH ISLANDS. TERRAIN FLAT AND SANDFILL. HEAVILY POPULATED AND CONJESTED CAR TRAVEL TO N AND E	1991-06-13	1996-05-01

 

[the_other_guy]

The weather observation forum that spends the whole time talking about 30 year averages and climate change.

 

Was it supposed to be this cloudy and drizzly today in any forecast? I was quite surprised

[Sundog]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The weather observation forum that spends the whole time talking about 30 year averages and climate change.

 

Was it supposed to be this cloudy and drizzly today in any forecast? I was quite surprised

Complaining about Central Park's bogus readings is a time honored tradition spanning 20+ years.

I also hate heat and humidity so you see me comparing temps to the recent past all the time. 

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The weather observation forum that spends the whole time talking about 30 year averages and climate change.

 

Was it supposed to be this cloudy and drizzly today in any forecast? I was quite surprised

why shouldn't we talk about our disappearing winters and lengthening summers?

[SACRUS]

 

79 / 69 some clouds.  Partly cloudy mid/upper 80s, maybe with enough sun the hottest areas get to 90 inland.  Hotter tomorrow with low - mid 90s in the hottest areas.   Onshore E/ENE flow Monday cools it off with Eric riding up offshore and then hooking out to sea.  Overall the week looks mainly dry and slightly cooler than normal.  Wed / Thu chance of showers and looking cloudy.  Warmer by the end of the week and next weekend before the cooler NE flow comes in byTue 26th for a few days.   Ridge building east and expanding heat towards the close of the month, with next heat possibility.

 

8/16-8/17    warm/humid - Hot Sunday
8/18 - 8/21 :  Cooler onshore, clouds, mainly dry Erin offshore surfers delight
8/22 - 8/25 :   Warmer - perhaps one day the hottes areas could touch 90 with enhanced recent dryness
8/26 - 8/29 :  Cooler
8/29 - Beyond :   Warmer - hot - wetter - overall

 

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The weather observation forum that spends the whole time talking about 30 year averages and climate change.

 

Was it supposed to be this cloudy and drizzly today in any forecast? I was quite surprised

Forum…thread…whatever Russ, whatever.  Had some more clouds above mby this morning than expected but is localized up here, sun breaking out now, a disgusting 75/72 here.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1944)
NYC: 95 (2015)
LGA: 94 (1944)
JFK: 94 (1978)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1945)
NYC: 56 (1979)
LGA: 58 (1979)
JFK: 56 (1979)


Historical:

 

1777 - The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum)

1909 - A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel)

1916 - Altapass, NC, was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1946: St. Louis, MO set its 24 hour rainfall record with a deluge of 8.78 inches on this date through the 16th. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1969: During the early evening, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane investigating Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of Mexico found an unbelievably low central pressure of 905 millibars or 26.72 inches of mercury. This information allowed forecasters to warn residents along the coast that Camille would cause damage of unprecedented proportions. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1974: De Pere, WI -- Lightning struck and killed a youth as he was driving a tractor on a family farm three miles west of De Pere. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1978: One foot of snow fell at Yellowstone National Park in northwestern Wyoming. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1980: DCA, first minimum temperature below 70 °F since July 14th a record consecutive number of hot nights. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

1980: Massive flooding was reported in Texas along the Cueces and Frio Rivers. Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Allen pushed rivers to levels to as much as 10 feet above flood stage. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1981: On this date through the 19th, the center of Tropical Storm Dennis moved slowly through the Florida Straits and onto the lower southwest coast the next morning. Dennis then moved northeastward through southern Florida, emerging into the Atlantic between Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach early on the 18th, taking nearly three days to cross the state. Highest winds occurred mostly in squalls well east of the center. The highest wind gusts reported with Dennis were 55 to 60 mph along the lower southeast coast on the 17th. Two tornadoes were reported in Plantation Key and Haulover Beach as Dennis moved through the Keys and Florida Bay, but no injuries or significant damage resulted. 10 to 20 inches of rain fell south and east of Lake Okeechobee, with amounts of 5 to 10 inches reported along the southeast and east-central coast. West Kendall measured 20.37 inches and amounts of 19 to 20 inches were common through the Homestead/Florida City area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: Thunderstorms containing devastating winds ripped across sections of eastern South Dakota. Winds gusting to 100 mph uprooted trees and damaged buildings across northern Hanson County. Several farms had all of their barns, silos, garages, and small buildings wiped out from the extreme winds.  A powerful thunderstorm rolled across extreme northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Winds were estimated at 70 mph across portions of Dixon and Dakota Counties uprooting numerous trees and damaging homes and power lines. Across the Missouri River in Woodbury County, Sioux City received 60 mph winds causing some power outages and scattered damage across town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons. Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI. Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD. Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60 inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992 - One of the most destructive United States hurricanes of record started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16, which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day.

 

[FPizz]

33 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The weather observation forum that spends the whole time talking about 30 year averages and climate change.

 

Was it supposed to be this cloudy and drizzly today in any forecast? I was quite surprised

No such thing as current weather in the obs thread, you should know this by now.  5 people control this thread and 1 awful met that said Erin was going into the Gulf.  

[SACRUS]

79 / 69 clearing a bit here.

[SACRUS]

 

The GFS after 4 run cycles lost the tropical storm it had going into the Fl/Southeast in the 8/26 - 8/29 timeframe.