August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm really surprised 1995 ranks above 1993, 1993 had the more extreme heatwave and set the 90 degree record at NYC

 

Here's the breakdown:

1993:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.653

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 0.813

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 3.025

Summer Score: 1.782

1995:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.451

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 2.366

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 1.908

Summer Score: 1.841

All variables are equally weighted. Personally, I wouldn't give equal weight to each variable e.g.., I'd place greater weight on the summer mean temperature. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the breakdown:

1993:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.653

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 0.813

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 3.025

Summer Score: 1.782

1995:

Mean Temperature Z-Score: 1.451

Max Temperature Z-Score: 1.638

Min Temperature Z-Score: 2.366

Number of 90°F+ Days Z-Score: 1.908

Summer Score: 1.841

All variables are equally weighted. Personally, I wouldn't give equal weight to each variable e.g.., I'd place greater weight on the summer mean temperature. 

ah I see where the variance comes in... Don I think you should also weigh number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days and length of maximum heatwave.

1995 only had the one 102 degree day while 1993 had an absolutely incredible 100-101-102 three day stretch in the middle of a 10 day super heatwave lol.

[winterwarlock]

89/69/94 push push

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is the rise also slower for SNE (like places in CT near the shoreline) Chris? I was amazed that Bridgeport had a higher temperature than JFK the other day, I thought they were more vulnerable to the sea breeze there.

When do you think 100 degree temperatures  at JFK might start to happen more often, like they did in the 1940s and 1950s up to 1966 Chris?

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ah I see where the variance comes in... Don I think you should also weigh number of 95 degree days, number of 100 degree days and length of maximum heatwave.

1995 only had the one 102 degree day while 1993 had an absolutely incredible 100-101-102 three day stretch in the middle of a 10 day super heatwave lol.

I ran the numbers for 1995 and 1993 where summer mean temperature was weighted at 50% and where the remaining 50% weight was equally divided among the other three variables. In that case, 1993 tops 1995. 2010 remains at the top.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

89/69/94 push push

I just hit 90, so it's a 6 day heat wave here!

[winterwarlock]

39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I just hit 90, so it's a 6 day heat wave here!

Same..6 day heatwave

 

91/70/94

 

We will get Sunday but tomorrow  will be close

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Highs on Sunday could reach the upper 80s. Parts of the region could reach the lower 90s. 

Noticeably cooler air will then overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday. 

The extended range guidance increasingly suggests that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.285 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[psv88]

90 today 

[uofmiami]

88.4 in Muttontown & 87.9 in Syosset for the high.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

wow 15 is the same as the number of 90 degree days at JFK, why is the number of 90 degree days increasing more rapidly there when 1) it's further north and 2) it has a south facing coast just like we do down here?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will turn cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Highs on Sunday could reach the upper 80s. Parts of the region could reach the lower 90s. 

Noticeably cooler air will then overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday. 

The extended range guidance increasingly suggests that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.285 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

looks like we are on our way to a cool AND dry month which is rare around here but especially so during the summer....

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000-08-14	2.64	62
2	1957-08-14	2.77	0
3	1966-08-14	3.42	0
4	2017-08-14	3.50	3
5	2022-08-14	4.12	0
6	2025-08-14	4.18	0
7	1949-08-14	4.27	0
8	2016-08-14	4.82	0
9	1970-08-14	5.05	0
10	1965-08-14	5.09	0

17 90+ days in 2022, was that more than JFK had that year Chris??

 

[Stormlover74]

88 today. Looking forward to next week's 70s

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 94
TEB: 91
EWR: 90
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
TTN: 88 * missing data
ISP: 88
LGA: 88  
JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs
ACY: 84
BLM: 81

[SACRUS]

 

NYC with its 8th high of 89 for the season.

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC with its 8th high of 89 for the season.

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

[etudiant]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

Maybe the Park guys have a little side bet going on the summer temperatures? 

[SACRUS]

26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What is the distribution of highs at Central Park during the summer season?

I always feel like the station is trolling us with what feels like a large number 89s it records. 

 

This season only New Brunswick has more 

 

89 Degree Days:

New Brnswck: 9
TTN: 5
TEB: 5
BLM: 3
EWR: 1
NYC: 8
ACY 2
ISP: 5
JFK: 1
LGA: 2
PHL: 2