August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It looks like a Hugo type pattern, not a pattern for a landfall up here.

 

Way too early for exact tracks. The EPS spread is all over the place as you would expect this far out. Some tracks closer to the SE and others OTS. But as long as there is high pressure to the north, any tropical system underneath will maintain a cooler onshore flow here.  

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Way too early for exact tracks. The EPS spread is all over the place as you would expect this far out. Some tracks closer to the SE and others OTS. But as long as there is high pressure to the north, any tropical system underneath will maintain a cooler onshore flow here.  

so the heat is gone after next weekend?

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

our Augusts have become much wetter, people talk about which months are warming the quickest (it's in the winter), but I'd surmise that August is the month that is becoming more wet at a faster rate than any other month.

 

Actually, even as August has been growing much wetter since 1970, it has been growing wetter at a slower pace than many other months over New York City's historical period. Spring and fall are growing wetter at the fast pace. Winter is growing wetter at the slowest pace.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Actually, even as August has been growing much wetter since 1970, it has been growing wetter at a slower pace than many other months over New York City's historical period. Spring and fall are growing wetter at the fast pace. Winter is growing wetter at the slowest pace.

I think it might have been something that began more recently, with our more active tropical seasons since after 1995, Don.  Do you have the numbers on August of the last 20 years or so?

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it might have been something that began more recently, with our more active tropical seasons since after 1995, Don.  Do you have the numbers on August of the last 20 years or so?

 

You're correct. I took a look since 1970 when the current wetter regime (cyclical + climate change-forced) developed. August has grown wetter than any other month since then. Here are the per century trends.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so the heat is gone after next weekend?

You would want to eventually see a wetter pattern develop in order to push back against the heat. If we continue to stay this dry, then there is nothing stopping us from having heatwaves right into September or maybe even October.

The tropics may turn out to be a wild card going forward. If we find a way to avoid any PREs and even some remnant tropical moisture, then we could be looking at another late summer and fall drought developing.

Long range rainfall forecasting is often low skill. But the one constant is that heat will quickly dry things out when there isn’t any rain. During the cooler summers in the past, we could get by with less rain. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

You're correct. I took a look since 1970 when the current wetter regime (cyclical + climate change-forced) developed. August has grown wetter than any other month since then. Here are the per century trends.

wow thanks Don, and July is right behind August, which is a little bit of a surprise since July really isn't a month for tropical weather.  Maybe these extreme rainfall months are the main reason we don't see very long duration heatwaves and triple digit temperatures as often as we used to.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You would want to eventually see a wetter pattern develop in order to push back against the heat. If we continue to stay this dry, then there is nothing stopping us from having heatwaves right into September or maybe even October.

The tropics may turn out to be a wild card going forward. If we find a way to avoid any PREs and even some remnant tropical moisture, then we could be looking at another late summer and fall drought developing.

Long range rainfall forecasting is often low skill. But the one constant is that heat will quickly dry things out when there isn’t any rain. During the cooler summers in the past, we could get by with less rain. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few 90s in September but it would be really hard to do in October, even last October when we didn't get any rainfall at all we didn't see any 90 degree temperatures.  Obviously it can happen though, October 2, 2019 it hit 95 here with a heat index of 100.

[doncat]

84/57 split today... This date in 2001 hit 103° here 

[cleetussnow]

Ya’ll need to check out this moonrise. Came up red AF. Coolest moonrise I ever saw. Hurry tho 

[cleetussnow]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Ya’ll need to check out this moonrise. Came up red AF. Coolest moonrise I ever saw. Hurry tho