August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the Pivotal color pallete?

I would have considered subscribing but I can't stand the colors. 

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro backed off the heat a bit-Wed is the hottest day with a couple places touching 100

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

I know we are way in advance here, but how’s the end of the month looking? preferably Labor Day weekend. I’ll be at the shore.

155 mph hurricane straight into Jones Beach, 20 foot surge. I’d lock yourself up in the bunker now. And prepare your goodbyes, although everyone you say goodbye to is likely screwed too. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

yeah-a hot dry stretch with limited if any precip even a half inch wouldn't do much with the warm/hot pattern

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

Yeah and everything's quickly turning brown. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Working from home this week and taking a lunch break outside. It’s rather pleasant out. Slight tick up in humidity but very comfortable with a light ENE breeze. 

Weather has been nice but man it is boring as hell.  I'd rather watch water evaporate.  

Soon to become hot and boring.  It also looks to continue pretty dry.  Lawn is crisping and garden needs regular watering.

Missed out on any big rains here over the last several weeks.  Hopefully in the next week to 10 days we'll have something meaningful to track in the tropics.  Big ridge out there so westerly movement is favored over re-curvature OTS in the longer term.  

 

[Brian5671]

yeah very boring of late...and any tropical activity is still in fantasy range.

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah and everything's quickly turning brown. 

That flooding that we had seems like a long time ago. It's gonna be rough next week with no rain to go along with the heat. I'm concerned about going into a drought in the coming weeks. This Euro run doesn't even give our area an inch of rain for the entire run. I hope it changes, but right now it looks like a very dry pattern. A lot of watering will be needed. 

[bluewave]

The Euro has one of the strongest mid-August heatwaves we have seen. It has a Sunday to Sunday extended heatwave. Peaking on Wednesday at 102° in the usual NJ warm spots. So some spots will be near 40 days reaching 90° by the 17th.

Euro NJ warm spots forecast

Sun….93°….8-10

Mon….96°

Tue…..99°

Wed….102°

Thurs..98°

Fri…..94°

Sat….95°

Sun…95°….8-17

1944 stands as the strongest August heatwave during that period.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1944-08-10	97
1944-08-11	102
1944-08-12	98
1944-08-13	100
1944-08-14	98
1944-08-15	99
1944-08-16	99
1944-08-17	95

 

 

[lee59]

Nice day out there today with a temperature of 79  and a ESE breeze.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

e

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Nice day out there today with a temperature of 79  and a ESE breeze.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

e

same here-77 with a nice breeze-house is opened up which is great on the wallet

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has one of the strongest mid-August heatwaves we have seen. It has a Sunday to Sunday extended heatwave. Peaking on Wednesday at 102° in the usual NJ warm spots. So some spots will be near 40 days reaching 90° by the 17th.

Euro NJ warm spots forecast

Sun….93°….8-10

Mon….96°

Tue…..99°

Wed….102°

Thurs..98°

Fri…..94°

Sat….95°

Sun…95°….8-17

1944 stands as the strongest August heatwave during that period.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1944-08-10	97
1944-08-11	102
1944-08-12	98
1944-08-13	100
1944-08-14	98
1944-08-15	99
1944-08-16	99
1944-08-17	95

 

 

euro track record on how hot it will get is very dubious..

[bluewave]

Maybe we can disrupt this dry heat pattern a bit after the 17th if the EPS is correct about the tropics becoming more active near the East Coast. But that is still a pretty far ways off to know if the model is correct. Plus we keep seeing the heat reload into the longer range all summer even when the models have forecast a relaxation.

But in the old days we could often count on the tropics to break these heatwaves extending into mid-August. Just not sure if this will be the case yet. But it’s worth monitoring. 
 

August 18-25