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July Banter 2025

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT

 

Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region.

Carrying on…

For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region.

Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things.

1.     The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there.

2.     However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter.

As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours.

The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage.

Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day.

Rainfall totals:

For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain.

Winds:

Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday.

The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph.

Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. 

 

An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
On 6/30/2025 at 9:41 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT

 

Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region.

Carrying on…

For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region.

Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things.

1.     The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there.

2.     However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter.

As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours.

The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage.

Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day.

Rainfall totals:

For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain.

Winds:

Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday.

The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph.

Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. 

 

An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

Forecast Discussion SUNDAY JULY 27 2025

George BM is one of the foremost senior forecasters we have ever seen. No one can forecast storms like this force of nature. GBM is at it all day and all night on into the new day, will keep right on, displaying almost outright supernatural energy, stamina, and incredible insight into the vagaries of meteorology!

George BM, this is one of your finest EVER! Thank you so much!

This weather community would never be the same without you!

 

 

In other news, Everyone stay safe and enjoy all the rains that have been falling on the DC Metro Region in the past 24 hours. Here's to more of the same overnight on into tomorrow!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Now, it's our turn. Flood watch has been hoisted for my region as showers develop and begin to hit Buda. I already had two rounds earlier, 1.5 inches and now they are saying 3 to maybe as much as 7 MOAR inches overnight! What ever happened to Summer in south central Texas??? We only got to 83 today! You wanna know what I think? Grand solar minimum and Little Ice Age is already starting, and no one told us in order to avoid a panic.

Barely had time to cover the car (Got a BIG hole in the roof I can't ever fix, not without buyin a brand new 30K car) and barely had time to feed the miniature donkeys.

It's been really nice knowin' y'allz. 

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted

Wind chills on KMWN tonight will be in the 15-25 range and likely staying below freezing through the 4th. Not unusual for them, but cool. And always a threat to the unprepared hikers that frequent that area. A few weeks back there were several rescues due to similar conditions combined with unprepared hikers. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I am getting sick and tired of this shyte right now. It's pouring again. We are in the process of getting Kerr Countied today. I have to go out in this crap to take Ashley B to St David's to her work this morning! Low water crossings today are all like New Orleans  in fracking Katrina. I can't even believe  this malarkey about being warned for possibly ten more inches today. This is south central Texas not the southeastern Carolinas with Chantal.

Ponds are forming in mom's front lawn. We have had 5 inches from this storm cycle. The radar returns are not moving away, they are just undulating reforming then dumping more rain on us. They could be correct about us getting ten inches. This place is becoming a quagmire. It's hard to walk out there, I need hip waders lmao.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

There is zero doubt now, that the weather is changing, and radically at that. Mid Atlantic will have tropical storm after tropical storm after tropical storm this summer. You guys are going to get sick and tired of the rain this summer. So are we down in "summery Texas". This thing just REFUSES to leave us! This POS has overstayed its welcome! Kids are dead in Kerr County! We have absolutely had it up to here with the rain! I want to go live in Cairo, Egypt no kidding. Egyptology and Archaeology have taken my entire life by storm! I adore ancient Egyptian Hieroglyphs straight from the Middle Kingdom and the 13th Dynasty! I LOVE CUNEIFORM TOO! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cylinders_of_Nabonidus

Here is another excellent resource

https://cdn.sanity.io/files/cctd4ker/production/73c1c31082beefc0b8157cdf67ff5aed540898f0.pdf

I absolutely adore this pdf with all my heart! I wub all those beautiful hieroglyphs!!!!!!! And all the incredible information about the steles and the pharaohs! Archaeology is so exciting! Chan Chan in Peru is another interesting place! Have you checked out the Mayan hieroglyphs? Man I have become head right over heels in love with this stuff!

Chan Chan https://archaeology.org/issues/may-june-2023/features/peru-chimu-chan-chan/

I LOVE the British Museum with ALL MY HEART! Check THIS out! https://www.britishmuseum.org/exhibitions/hieroglyphs-unlocking-ancient-egypt

Check out the architecture of the old Philae Temples! https://archaeology.org/issues/november-december-2021/features/egypt-philae-temples/ And the hieroglyphs!

Mayan hieroglyphs for Beginners 

 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

THIS IS GETTING PRETTY  BAD.

 

Flash Flood Warning

TXC091-209-051800-

/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0061.250705T1446Z-250705T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX

946 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

 

* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Eastern Comal County in south central Texas...

  Hays County in south central Texas...

 

* Until 100 PM CDT.

 

* At 946 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated

  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between

  1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is

  2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3

  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing

  or expected to begin shortly.

 

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms

           producing flash flooding.

 

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

 

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,

           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

 

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  New Braunfels, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Dripping Springs,

  Wimberley, Canyon Lake Dam, Canyon Lake, Woodcreek, Uhland,

  Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Bear Creek, Driftwood, Mountain City,

  Hays, Hays City, Hunter and San Marcos Regional Airport.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.

 

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

 

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.

 

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 3022 9798 3002 9771 2999 9776 2995 9779

      2988 9789 2986 9790 2986 9788 2985 9788

      2973 9803 2968 9809 2966 9814 2978 9822

      2992 9824 3005 9814

 

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

 

$$

 

MM

 

It's been really nice knowing y'all. Even one foot of floodwaters will sweep me away. My left knee AND foot are hurting. I have had severe troubles with the left foot from decades of stupid jebwalking. Now the KNEE is getting bad too. One bad flood and I'm history! I'll never get to see Egypt or the Valley of the Kings or the Giza Plateau or the Central American pyramids or Chan Chan in Peru.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Taking the Amtrak to Philly old school style and then the septa over to the ballpark to catch my Reds against the Phillies. Just a gorgeous summer day for  a 4:00 game. 

Enjoy that game!!! Enjoy that nice weather too!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

It is clearing up and the radar is dissolving into nothingness!

We are in the clear! I want 90s and sunshine tomorrow!

Should be perfectly dry and hot into Hallowe'en! Gotta WUB south central Texas!!!!!!!!!!! :)

We do NOT have rain in Texas in summer. We get treated to 106 degrees, Egypt-like sunshine and heat indices near 120! :) Not one cloud! Rain be GONE! It's SUMMER now!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this is really bothering all of us down here. Those poor little girls, alone in a raging river that rose something like 25 feet in 45 minutes.

I was so relieved earlier tonight, skies were clearing and all the rain areas just went away.

Then I just got mocked by the National Weather Service

A Flood Watch has been extended through 1 PM Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible with isolated pockets of 10 inches somewhere in the watch area. It is very difficult to pinpoint where exactly the isolated heavy amounts will occur in this pattern. Stay Weather Aware!

  

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
  later tonight into Sunday morning. Flood Watch for the Hill Country
  and I-35 corridor has been extended through 1 PM CDT Sunday.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Multiple models show another round of showers and thunderstorms with
pockets of heavy rains later tonight into Sunday morning. As a
result, have extended the Flood Watch through 1 PM CDT on Sunday.
Have also increased POPs for the Hill Country to along the I-35
corridor.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

By far the biggest issue we have right now is simple.  We’ve let the losers get control of society. The western liberal society we helped create is by far the best in human history by every single measurable of human existence. But somehow we’re letting the losers who are so F’ing stupid they can’t be successful or happy even in this society rip it apart. Instead of getting an education or developing marketable skills they’re mad immigrants took their jobs. Ya ok. If you were so incompetent you couldn’t get a service industry job in this economy, your problem isn’t anyone else. 
 

The legitimate issues we do have, inadequate healthcare, guns, not enough resources or investment for impoverished communities, lack of adequate drug rehabilitation, are mostly created by the same people these morons think are the answer to their struggles. 
 

We simply need to wrestle control away from the dumbest losers in our society who aren’t qualified to run a lemonade stand but somehow got the keys to the car and are running us into a ditch because their big mad they’re no education barely literate 80 IQ selves weren’t making 500k a year. 

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