July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

5K j/kg, wow!

[DavisStraight]

82/73 up here in York, little sticky, just brought my sister's to the beach, more comfortable there regardless of the layer of smoke

[powderfreak]

BTV starting to undress on the long term discussion... "unabated perfect weather."

For general recreation purposes, though, it`s looking gorgeous. It`s
hard not to see the long stretch of 70s to mid 80s with low
dewpoints, nil PoPs, and steady breezes without anticipation of
unabated perfect weather.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Do we dread August so much that we will eschew the monthly thread?

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

5K j/kg, wow!

I had 3K here the other day and could only manage a gusty shower! 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I had 3K here the other day and could only manage a gusty shower! 

CAPE is great but means nothing without a robust enough trigger! Unfortunately, the largest CAPE days generally occur when there is a lack of forcing/trigger. CAPE values that high aren't actually uncommon in those parts but it gains more attention when you have a forcing mechanism.

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, dendrite said:

I figured most of the wild ones are concord type grapes with seeds. Do they ripen dark purple to almost black?

We have grapes here that look like that description.  They only get to 3/8-1/2" in small bunches and are mostly seed with little flavor in the rest.  "Fox grapes" is a term I've seen applied to them.

When we lived in NNJ there were wild Concord grapes less than 1,000 feet from home.  They would produce large (often 100+ fruit) bunches of deep blue grapes 5/8-3/4" and while the seeds were large, the juice was excellent.  My older brother and I would fill a couple of buckets, and our mom would make a wonderful jam.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV starting to undress on the long term discussion... "unabated perfect weather."

For general recreation purposes, though, it`s looking gorgeous. It`s
hard not to see the long stretch of 70s to mid 80s with low
dewpoints, nil PoPs, and steady breezes without anticipation of
unabated perfect weather.

Everyone down here is super excited. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Can any met comment on Wednesday’s severe threat for NNE? We have an outdoor event that evening and trying to plan contingencies. Thanks

No met here, but if you could hold that event near our home, it's almost a guarantee that the storms would miss.  

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everyone down here is super excited. 

Right? He's worse in the winter. I swear his middle name must be "Gloat"

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We be Stein-ing

1.66” MTD.  
Thursday looks meh for rain here. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Do we dread August so much that we will eschew the monthly thread?

Fire one up!!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I'm thinking that will be a SoP deal... little up this way

[Sn0waddict]

Happy August 1st to the HHH folks from the ICON 

[kdxken]

 

Weirdly it felt hotter when I started working this morning. Just checked and the dew point and they have gone down.. What's up with that?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Weirdly it felt hotter when I started working this morning. Just checked and the dew point and they have gone down.. What's up with that?

Not uncommon for DPs to mix down as the sun goes up.  

It all depends on how deep the moisture ( WV density ) is in the column.  At first, if there is an intervening dry region in the sounding in the 900 mb level ( about mid way up the mixing depth for the day/BL), this air will 'turn over' with the initial convection cycling, mix in, and lower the surface.  But if this layer is not present, there'll be less of that, too.  It all depends. 

There's no question we are in a deep warm sector sounding, regardless. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm thinking that will be a SoP deal... little up this way

Will be south of CT 

[WxWatcher007]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

CAPE is great but means nothing without a robust enough trigger! Unfortunately, the largest CAPE days generally occur when there is a lack of forcing/trigger. CAPE values that high aren't actually uncommon in those parts but it gains more attention when you have a forcing mechanism.

Agree with all that. SE CT stole my storms.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will be south of CT 

Get ready for the rains. 

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

That's my moving day

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will be south of CT 

You'll get some... but not like that model depiction

[dendrite]

12z mav bakes tomorrow 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Weirdly it felt hotter when I started working this morning. Just checked and the dew point and they have gone down.. What's up with that?

NW flow today and tomorrow means some dews mix out except for seabreeze locales. S coast tomorrow will have 70+ dews.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z mav bakes tomorrow 

we should bake, especially with the westerly sfc flow and should have ample sun

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Happy August 1st to the HHH folks from the ICON 

I've seen the ICON do this at more times than I care to remember and it's seldom correct.  

The best way I can describe a cause - though it's purely speculation ... - is that it's really like that model confuses the Labrador current as an atmospheric phenomenon, such that when given any reason to turn the flow NE/E like most guidance are doing on Friday, it ends up with that plume of subsurface SSTs as an atmospheric tsunamis.   Partially sarcasm there of course... it's more likely that it's got a bias in proficiency and speed to thermodynamically fix/couple the lower levels to the water

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree with all that. SE CT stole my storms.

Get ready for the rains. 

These always are wat overdone with convection involved .. robs moisture transport . They’ll be a narrow zone of a few inches but most likely NYC or NJ 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everyone down here is super excited. 

 

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Right? He's worse in the winter. I swear his middle name must be "Gloat"

That weather will include you two clowns too  lol.

Region wide.  Isn’t this what you’ve been posting about for the last week?  The start to August that looks great?

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z mav bakes tomorrow 

it's baaaaaaaack  

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm a little suspicious the GFS is over mixing ...

It's got 2-m DPs under 60 F N of the Pike around 21z here shortly, where it is presently 67 to 71. 

It's an interesting test for tomorrow - it's possible that mixing DPs out may be goosing the kinetic temps

[weatherwiz]

Oh man look at this from the 12z NAM for DSM this evening. Those CAPE numbers are ridiculous. 1450 Hail CAPE...WOOOOOOWWWWWW

[WxWatcher007]

Euro not backing down for Thursday/Friday.