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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Are you going to BDL?

Absolutely...if anything looks good into northern CT that's where I'll be. 

I'm a little upset...there is an empty lot in between the Spare Time Bowling Alley and that hotel. A friend of mine pointed it out 3 years ago and I started sitting there. It was great because you had a bit better view being a bit farther back from the building across from McDonalds on the airfield. But the lot is not blocked off with cinderblocks :thumbsdown: 

what I really need to do though is find a good viewing spot within Suffield towards Thompsonville. BDL is great for the views but I feel like more often than not the best stuff happens along Suffield/Thompsonville.  

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3 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Is there even such a thing as a growing season in the Sarnac Lake area? Lol

Have to concentrate on the cool season veggies - cole crops and root crops. 
When we lived in Fort Kent we had damage to our pumpkins on July 31, 1978 and the neighbor's beans were killed.  Hit 28 late that August.  We were then at the edge of the built-up section of town at 550' elev.  Moved to a back settlement at 970' in 1981 and on August 28, 1982 we had slushy flakes.  In both places we had to ripen 90%+ of our tomatoes indoors.  In 1983 we reached Sept 13 without getting below 39 and the forecast low for the next morning was 40.  That verified at 25 and our green tomatoes were fit to use for croquet.

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New model development from NOAA: The Global Systems Laboratory is set to release an experimental, high resolution AI product called, 'HRRR-Cast.' It's been trained on 3 years worth of HRRR analysis data... Lately, computational efficiency is starting to dominate the modeling world and I'm incredibly skeptical of it.

According to https://arxiv.org/html/2507.05658v1 (assuming this is the same modeling system):

"HRRRCast outperforms HRRR at the 20 dBZ threshold across all lead times, and achieves comparable performance at 30 dBZ."

"HRRRCast can produce ensembles that quantify forecast uncertainty while remaining far more computationally efficient than traditional physics-based ensembles."

Big caveat: The study used HRRR analysis data as 'ground truth.' Therefore, it's no surprise that HRRR-Cast, and their other AI model, performed well compared to diagnostic HRRR/forecast output.

Until I see AI outperform conventional NWP at METAR/radiosonde sites (surface and aloft), I'm not going to get excited.

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22 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

New model development from NOAA: The Global Systems Laboratory is set to release an experimental, high resolution AI product called, 'HRRR-Cast.' It's been trained on 3 years worth of HRRR analysis data... Lately, computational efficiency is starting to dominate the modeling world and I'm incredibly skeptical of it.

According to https://arxiv.org/html/2507.05658v1 (assuming this is the same modeling system):

"HRRRCast outperforms HRRR at the 20 dBZ threshold across all lead times, and achieves comparable performance at 30 dBZ."

"HRRRCast can produce ensembles that quantify forecast uncertainty while remaining far more computationally efficient than traditional physics-based ensembles."

Big caveat: The study used HRRR analysis data as 'ground truth.' Therefore, it's no surprise that HRRR-Cast, and their other AI model, performed well compared to diagnostic HRRR/forecast output.

Until I see AI outperform conventional NWP at METAR/radiosonde sites (surface and aloft), I'm not going to get excited.

I saw this the other day. While I am extremely skeptical with the AI stuff and the movement with AI within the field, this is something I think is worst investing resources in regarding AI...short-term/nowcasting, not medium-range. I think there is tremendous potential in this regard when it comes to improving lead times with severe weather and flash flooding. 

Glad you threw in there the caveat too...that is something that should definitely be made aware and realized by everyone reading the study. 

But I am excited for this. 

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I listened to lots of Sabbath as a kid. Ozzy's solo stuff was pretty good too. RIP

And also odd when Ozzy lived as long as he did, while freak genius (and rather straight-edge iirc) R Rhodes was taken so soon

Plane crash got him in a very odd way.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Summer of yore on the gefs

This is fun ...

check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. 

It's like +2 SD   AO   vs   -2 SD  AO      Yet both try to make it cold here 

image.thumb.png.e47cdaf7b607b84f00c7054787fdc97c.png

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is fun ...

check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. 

It's like +2 SD   AO   vs   -2 SD  AO      Yet both try to make it cold here 

image.thumb.png.e47cdaf7b607b84f00c7054787fdc97c.png

Cold works.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is fun ...

check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. 

It's like +2 SD   AO   vs   -2 SD  AO      Yet both try to make it cold here 

image.thumb.png.e47cdaf7b607b84f00c7054787fdc97c.png

Its coming 

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is fun ...

check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. 

It's like +2 SD   AO   vs   -2 SD  AO      Yet both try to make it cold here 

image.thumb.png.e47cdaf7b607b84f00c7054787fdc97c.png

The Euro would be rocking for some MCS/derecho potential. Northwesterly flow aloft and I bet the sfc we're probably right on the gradient of rich theta-e air

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