July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[donsutherland1]

A few parts of the region could see a shower or thundershower this evening or overnight.

Tomorrow will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. A few of the hot spots could reach 90°. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. 

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The last three cycles of the ECMWF and EPS are particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +14.40 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[steve392]

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ugly here too...but worth it for the comfort....I run around chasing people to turn off lights every little bit helps

Im hoping this coming months bill will be better.  Our old window a/c was struggling till we replaced it with a new one.  

[steve392]

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.  

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.  

Brief spritz here in Riverdale, NJ. 
This AM was gorgeous. Spent time by the pool for a couple of hours. Was hoping to get more time this afternoon, but the weather did not cooperate. Tomorrow will be poolside for sure.

 

[winterwarlock]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ugly here too...but worth it for the comfort....I run around chasing people to turn off lights every little bit helps

my bill wasnt bad at all...ive been keep it at 78 lately

[SACRUS]

 

Highs

 

 

EWR: 83
ISP: 83
LGA: 83
JFK: 82 * No intra hour high
TEB: 82
PHL: 82
NYC: 81
New Brnswck: 80
ACY: 79
BLM: 79
TTN: 77

[SACRUS]

 

dew point temps up to 70 here

[WestBabylonWeather]

Ducks game was awesome. Perfect weather 

had a few seconds of spotty drizzle that’s about it 

[jm1220]

Brief shower earlier, still nice sunset. 

[psv88]

83 today. Beautiful day!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Central Jersey storm/ff hot spot does it again. Amazingly consistent year after year down there. Meanwhile just showers amounting to a few hundredths on the island. 

[Snowlover11]

andddd new jersey wins again.

[steve392]

11 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Brief spritz here in Riverdale, NJ. 
This AM was gorgeous. Spent time by the pool for a couple of hours. Was hoping to get more time this afternoon, but the weather did not cooperate. Tomorrow will be poolside for sure.

 

My long weekend at work. Nothing like staring at windows 30 feet up wondering what it's like outside lol

 

71 degree's and just insanely humid out.  Like hitting a brick wall walking out the front door.

[bluewave]

Could be some waterspouts off the Long Island and Jersey Shore with rotation and SSTs near 80°.

 

15 E Barnegat Li 0930            78 78 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday was yet another day that saw Central Park record the lowest high temperature among Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains. It was also the 11th time this summer. That is tied with the record for June 1-July 19 that was set in 2017. The summer record is 17 days during summers 2007 and 2017.

[SACRUS]

 

 

79 / 74  mostly cloudy.  Clouds the caveat today for borderline areas getting to 90 and hotter areas getting to the mid 90s.  Clouds wanna hang tough this year - cloud magnet in full force today.   Sunnier drier / cooler Mon - Wed - nice stretch similar to the Jul 4 - 5th days.   Mainly mid - upper 80s in the hot areas.   Ridge building over the area by later Wed with heat expanding by Thu into next weekend.  Strong heat Thu - Sat (95+).  Ridge wanes and pulls west and while warm to hot - some onshore and rain / storms by the 27.    Break in the heat looks brief with ridge out west expanding and raising heights towards early next month.

 

7/20 : Hot / Humid clouds some isolated showers
7/21 - 7/23 :  Cooler / Drier - Gorgeous sunny
7/24 - 7/27 : Hot / Humid - Strong heat 25-26, storms chances by later Sat/Sun next weekend
7/28  - Beyond :   Ridge pulling west - Overall warm-hot / humid  Weter

[lee59]

rain here, .12 so far.

[bluewave]

While the high temperature rankings have been impressive over the last month, the record high dew points have made the low temperature rankings even higher. The Hudson Valley is ranked 4th for warmest highs last month. But the whole area is top 2-3 warmest for the lows. 
 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Drove through localized flash flooding on the southern state right at the meadow brook. That tiny cell has some insane rates. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1980)
NYC: 101 (1980)
LGA: 101 (1991)
JFK: 99 (2019)
New Brnswick: 99 (1999)


Lows: 

EWR: 59 (1997)
NYC: 55 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1997)
JFK: 58 (1965)
New Brnswick: 49 (1923)

Historical:

 

 

1915: A record high temperature of 115 degrees occurred in Yosemite Valley at the National Park Headquarters, California (around 4,000 feet elevation). This reading was the warmest day in a streak of 7 consecutive days of 110 degrees or higher at Yosemite Valley from the 19th through the 25th.

 

1921: Montana registered its record maximum 24 hour precipitation as 11.50 inches of rain fell at Circle. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1946: The temperature at Medford, OR soared to an all-time high of 115° to begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit 100° at Sexton Summit for the only time in 40 years of records.  (Extreme Weather p. 276, by Christopher C. Burt)

1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: Annandale, Fairfax County, VA 16 people were struck and injured while picnicking. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

 

1977: A flash flood hits Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on this day in 1977, killing 84 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. This flood came 88 years after the infamous Great Flood of 1889 that killed more than 2,000 people in Johnstown.

 

 

1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993: Heavy rains caused flash flooding in the Black Hills of South Dakota. 2.5 inches of rain fell within 30 minutes causing flash flooding in the Lead/Deadwood area and the northern Black Hills. The rapid runoff from the rains also caused numerous mudslides. The mudslides were as deep as three feet on area highways and even washed out a few roads. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Seattle, WA recorded their record maximum temperature of 100 °F which was also recorded on June 9, 1955. (Extreme Weather p. 278, by Christopher C. Burt)

1994: Several separate lightning bolts struck Camp Pickett, VA injuring seven officers. Two suffered serious injuries and had to be resuscitated several times. Most of the men were injured while inside tents with metal poles. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1997: 32.54 inches of rain fell at Dauphin Island Sea Lab during the slow passage of Hurricane Danny. This set Alabama’s record 24-hour maximum precipitation record. In total 36.74 inches of rain was dumped by Danny here, 26 inches of which fell in just 7 hours the previous day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: A hailstorm (had ping-pong to baseball size) damaged most houses and vehicles on the east side of North Platte Nebraska; $7 million damage. A woman was struck on her head by a large hailstone in the Wal-Mart parking lot. She had to be taken to the hospital for stitches.
(Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

2005: Hurricane Emily made landfall in northern Mexico. When the central pressure fell to 29.43 inches of mercury, and its sustained winds reached 160 mph on the 16th, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Slowly seeing the ridge build back west into the MS valley - strongest heat pulls back west but overoll warmer 7/27  - 7/31, before we see heat expanding east again towards 8/3.  Euro similar to the CM C

 

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the high temperature rankings have been impressive over the last month, the record high dew points have made the low temperature rankings even higher. The Hudson Valley is ranked 4th for warmest highs last month. But the whole area is top 2-3 warmest for the lows. 
 

 

 

At EWR only two negative departures in July so far, maybe get 1,2 more between Mon - Wed before going much above by Thu - Mon.

At JFK no below normal days this month (even while missing 4 days of intra hour highs)

4 below normal days at LGA with 3 of them -1.

 

3 at NYC even with the challenged high/maxes.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Clearing looks less likely and would lower range of the highs today - unless there is some rapid burning up of clouds.  The May Grey - Jun Gloom, July grey sky syndrome continues especially on weekends.

 

[vegan_edible]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Clearing looks less likely and would lower range of the highs today - unless there is some rapid burning up of clouds.  The May Grey - Jun Gloom, July grey sky syndrome continues especially on weekends.

 

no sky july as we'd say in san diego

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

no sky july as we'd say in san diego

Only till 1PM  there.

[SACRUS]

 

84  / 74 despite the clouds warming up nicely.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Drove through localized flash flooding on the southern state right at the meadow brook. That tiny cell has some insane rates. 

Yep I saw a radar estimated 4.19” right around Uniondale. 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

79 / 74  mostly cloudy.  Clouds the caveat today for borderline areas getting to 90 and hotter areas getting to the mid 90s.  Clouds wanna hang tough this year - cloud magnet in full force today.   Sunnier drier / cooler Mon - Wed - nice stretch similar to the Jul 4 - 5th days.   Mainly mid - upper 80s in the hot areas.   Ridge building over the area by later Wed with heat expanding by Thu into next weekend.  Strong heat Thu - Sat (95+).  Ridge wanes and pulls west and while warm to hot - some onshore and rain / storms by the 27.    Break in the heat looks brief with ridge out west expanding and raising heights towards early next month.

 

7/20 : Hot / Humid clouds some isolated showers
7/21 - 7/23 :  Cooler / Drier - Gorgeous sunny
7/24 - 7/27 : Hot / Humid - Strong heat 25-26, storms chances by later Sat/Sun next weekend
7/28  - Beyond :   Ridge pulling west - Overall warm-hot / humid  Weter

Bring on heatwave #5

[Rmine1]

Pouring in Brightwaters 

[Brian5671]

hazy sun here 79