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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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14 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The peak was today, July 2nd still holds record highs on both max and min side (100, 82). The over-90 portion of the 1901 heat wave ran from June 26 to July 3. The highs and lows for those eight days were

June 26 ___ 91 72 _ max was a record tied with three previous years until 1904,1909 tied 93, then 1923 had 94, 1943 and 49 96F, and 1952 100F (96F 1963 warmest since, 93F warmest recent 2003 and 2024.

June 27 ___ 91 74

June 28 __ 93 75

June 29 __ 95 76

June 30 __ 95 60 _ max a record tied in 1931, broken 97F 1945 (eventual 99F 1964)

July 1 __ 100 78 _ max is a record, min was a record until 79F in 2018

July 2 __ 100 82 (.03 in) _ both records today, max shared with 1966

July 3 ___ 94 76 (.31 in) suspect the 94 was early and it dropped during the day

After 84/71 on the 4th, a record 3.07 inches of rain fell on the 5th (86/75) and 1.26 more on the 6th (77/74). It's pretty easy to visualize a stalled front being responsible for the heavy rainfalls. 

Then a second less severe heat wave lasted from July 14 to 24 (86 to 93 max, highest 21st). Several overnight lows were 76 to 78 F in that warm spell. 

A record low max of 69F was observed on July 26 then it warmed back to 92, 93 on July 29-30. Aug and Sep were close to average with a mix of warm and cool spells. 

July 1901 had a mean of 77.7 F and was 4th warmest July 1869-1901 and is now t39 of 157. Factoring in an increasing heat island it ranks 27th. 

100 back to back days in 1901 would have been a really big deal wow!!

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53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what are the geographical differences that are causing these different results? I would expect more rainfall in the West because they have an ocean to the west of them (the jet stream goes west to east for the most part) and less rainfall in the East because we have an entire continent to the west of us.

Another thing worth noting about the 60s is that although they were dryer, they had a lot more snow than the decades surrounding them-- my ideal combo, lots of snow in the winter and dry and hot weather in the summer.  1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67 were all classic and even historic winters.

The climate models couple the ocean and atmosphere in forecasting circulation changes. To date, the trends in the Southwest (including part of California) and Northeast are consistent with what is expected from the circulation changes.

The 1960s were snowier, because the cold was so much greater than it has been recently. There was greater opportunity for precipitation to fall in the form of snow than there is today. During winters 1960-61 through 1969-70, the mean winter temperature was 32.6°, four winters had mean temperatures at or below 32°, with the warmest winter having a mean temperature of 35.9°.

During 2010-11 through 2024-25, the mean winter temperature was 37.1° (above the warmest winter of the 1960s), the coldest winter was 32.7° (above the mean figure for the 1960s), and four winters had mean temperatures of 40° or above. The rapid increase in warmth has more than offset the wetter climate. As a result, New York City's snowfall is likely in the early stages of a secular decline. By the mid-2030s, it will be clear whether snowfall has truly entered a long-term decline, even as there will still be snowier cycles and snowier winters. I suspect that the 30-season mean snowfall figure will reach or fall below 20.0" at Central Park by the mid-2030s. 

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45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's fairly common to have really good winters after 100 degree heat in the summer (examples are 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2010, 2013).

You could also add 1887 (thinking of winter 1887-88) which had a very warm July, warmer than 1901. I guess it's not an invariable rule, there was nothing particularly severe about winters 1896-97, or 1953-54, but I would say you could add 1980 to your list because winter 1980-81 featured some extremely cold spells, it just wasn't a very snowy winter and it ended early (second half of Feb 1981 was probably top five in average temp).  

The summer of 1917 was not all that hot but a spell in late July and early August set a number of records. 

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

You could also add 1887 (thinking of winter 1887-88) which had a very warm July, warmer than 1901. I guess it's not an invariable rule, there was nothing particularly severe about winters 1896-97, or 1953-54, but I would say you could add 1980 to your list because winter 1980-81 featured some extremely cold spells, it just wasn't a very snowy winter and it ended early (second half of Feb 1981 was probably top five in average temp).  

The summer of 1917 was not all that hot but a spell in late July and early August set a number of records. 

Roger, did 1887 or 1917 have any 100 degree days?

 

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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Past years

 

One note and i will correct it for JFK in 2019 is 87 

 

image.png

well 2010 really stands out Tony ;) only time we had a 1966 type of heatwave around here, one was 3 days in a row of 100+ the other one was 3 days out of 4 of 100+

what about sky conditions, how many of them since 2010 had clear blue skies Tony?

 

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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

100 back to back days in 1901 would have been a really big deal wow!!

Yes, somebody said, 'you know what, we need a machine that can make cold air, so we don't have to haul all of this ice around during hot weather.'

Looking back I find these two consecutive 100F days to be the first such case, the next time it happened was in 1926 (July 21-22).

Probably 98 100 98 98 from July 30 to Aug 2 1917 was more oppressive however. 

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35 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Yes, somebody said, 'you know what, we need a machine that can make cold air, so we don't have to haul all of this ice around during hot weather.'

Looking back I find these two consecutive 100F days to be the first such case, the next time it happened was in 1926 (July 21-22).

Probably 98 100 98 98 from July 30 to Aug 2 1917 was more oppressive however. 

the most consecutive 98+ days?

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Another thing worth noting about the 60s is that although they were dryer, they had a lot more snow than the decades surrounding them-- my ideal combo, lots of snow in the winter and dry and hot weather in the summer.  1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67 were all classic and even historic winters.

The summer of 1966 heatwave was very short compared to our summers these days. The major heat only lasted for around 3 weeks. The summer before and after that period wasn’t very warm by today’s standards.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1966-06-23 93 61
1966-06-24 97 73
1966-06-25 85 63
1966-06-26 78 62
1966-06-27 101 68
1966-06-28 90 74
1966-06-29 90 71
1966-06-30 94 72
1966-07-01 87 71
1966-07-02 102 70
1966-07-03 105 75
1966-07-04 100 78
1966-07-05 87 74
1966-07-06 87 73
1966-07-07 93 76
1966-07-08 91 70
1966-07-09 89 67
1966-07-10 93 70
1966-07-11 96 72
1966-07-12 98 72
1966-07-13 100 77

 

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Today was another very warm day. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 90°
Islip: 90°
New York City-Central Park: 88°
New York City-JFK Airport: 89°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92°
Newark: 94°

Today was the third day this year that Bridgeport and Islip hit 90° or above while Central Park did not. That breaks the record of two such days that was set in 2006.

Parts of the region will experience a strong thunderstorm this evening. Afterward, generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday with readings mainly in the middle 80s.

It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +13.30 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.923 today. 

 

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