frd Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM 27 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Interesting "dry" look to the western Atlantic/Caribbean as the heart of hurricane season approaches. Well, that is interesting, as the Atlantic seems to be warmer closer to the East Coast and the Gulf. Plenty of SST juice if seasonal models are correct , already those areas are above normal. Threats may have shorter lead times and develop closer to the EC and the Gulf, but why does the superblend not indicate that, I am not sure at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM Finally it appears we are headed to a normal temp pattern, to at times above normal, with higher humidity levels. Eventually we may have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather threat in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic later in the month. Will post that in the severe thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Thursday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:57 PM 1 hour ago, frd said: Finally it appears we are headed to a normal temp pattern, to at times above normal, with higher humidity levels. Eventually we may have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather threat in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic later in the month. Will post that in the severe thread. Prime MCS season is almost here for the Midwest and Ohio Valley. We are always under a threat pending the environment when it's expected to our west. This upcoming pattern advertised would give us a better chance. Will need to assess the positioning of the quasi-stationary fronts closely as we move into the later part of the month. Those are the train tracks, per say. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 12:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:11 PM Don't know if anyone bothers to look at it much, but the Cfs2 has been advertising a non-hot summer for weeks insisting on a trough in the east. I know the Cfs2's track record has been sketchy, but it's been showing this since late May, so it deserves some credence. Add to that June temps to date, and I'd give it the benefit of the doubt at this point. This is a link to July temps and beyond. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025061218&fh=1 P.s. it's showing a wet July and August too. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Major heat wave odds are increasing for the Mid Atlantic between June 22 nd and June 25 th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM This progression might indeed happen, heat mid week, followed by a couple days of relative cooling , then a heat wave next week ( worse North of us ) and then moderation again, matching the global wind progressions. Note the worst of the heat moving back West by days 14 to 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 01:39 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:39 PM If you are looking for hot beach and pool weather looks like the last 10 days of June will grant your wish. OZ EPS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:54 PM 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If you are looking for hot beach and pool weather looks like the last 10 days of June will grant your wish. OZ EPS. I expect surf zone temps to be above normal by this time. Good surfing day might be this Friday with left over swell, incoming afternoon high tide and offshore winds, yippee ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM 13 hours ago, frd said: Major heat wave odds are increasing for the Mid Atlantic between June 22 nd and June 25 th. CPC likes the period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago WB 0Z EURO. Get the ac checked. High heat on the way next week.... with low 100s forecasted several days. Peak may be Wednesday: 106 at DCA! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 37 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO. Get the ac checked. High heat on the way next week.... with low 100s forecasted several days. Peak may be Wednesday: 106 at DCA! What does GFS show. Thought Euro ran several degrees too high, but still we roast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, frd said: What does GFS show. Thought Euro ran several degrees too high, but still we roast. WB 0Z GFS is hot next week as well... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Picked a good week for vacation https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3lrs7sohee222 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The updated CPC map (from yesterday) has us in an even higher probability contour. We gonna cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO. Get the ac checked. High heat on the way next week.... with low 100s forecasted several days. Peak may be Wednesday: 106 at DCA! Euro ran way too high last year at range. GFS seems to have a high bias in the metro areas too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Euro ran way too high last year at range. GFS seems to have a high bias in the metro areas too. Yeah I’m selling on 104-106. 100 though seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I’m selling on 104-106. 100 though seems possible If you select a spot away from the metros, it looks more reasonable (Reston 99 on GFS, 102 on Euro). The models got too good and are projecting the tarmac temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Either way it's gonna be hot next week. First real dose of summer after a pretty cool spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Forecasts like this are why I'm so damn happy to be retired. Having to work in stuff like this coming heat sucked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I’m selling on 104-106. 100 though seems possible My memory from the last few summers is most models have been overdoing high temps in the med/long range. I'm guessing we top out around 96-100F for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Next Friday I have a 2024 Corvette Convertible rented for 24 hours. I don’t care if it’s 150 degrees out, but that top is going down! I’ll just have to drive faster to keep me cool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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