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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Folks probably don't give a ratz ass how and why it rains on weekends at this point.   The frustration doesn't care...  But, I'm seeing this weekend's rain potential as more typically of summer - not being inundated with cold and NE flow type bs     fwiw -

There may be a warm/stationary front sort of stalled ALB to PSM type axis, like the current blend of the Euro/GFS, and associated rain/thunder ... More typical of 42 deg N latitude in early June.  That setup is normal synoptic frontal traffic this time of year.  We get fronts... it's normal during both outstanding weather years, and piece of shit years, and all qualities in between.  Cannot remove passing fronts, cool or warm, at this time of year.

It would in fact be abnormal to have a big ridge anomaly with the westerlies and fronts all displayed way w-n ... If/when that ever sets up, that's more of a July and August thing.  I get it that 12 weeks in a row of rain on weekends is some kind of maddening fractal ...

I think the GGEM is full of shit...  I'd take a blend of the Euro and GFS.   If S of said axis above ... humid and warm with thunder in region.  If your N of that, like Scott was saying ... rain intervals with thunder on Saturday. But mild-like.  I would not take present depiction as gospel, anyway.  The boundary could reposition N or S by 100 mb from this range.  

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Heh... despite my conservative tone this morning - which I still suspect is warranted - the NAM arrives with a 90 F at least implicated in the FOUS grid

54000492730 -2403 212012 71261912 

I don't expect anyone to know what these numerics are supposed  mean - mainly because I've written, with pain staking detail, what those definitions are at least 20 times  ( :blink: ).   Anyway, that profile for 18z on Wednesday would 89 to 91 over down town streets and parking lots...ranging to 82 or 84 where the hill people down play heat. 

sarcasm aside ...I'm not sure the NAM physics has smoke contamination built in ?   maybe Brian or someone knows.  

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3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Where did you think you moved to?  Seriously though, I don't know if you actually understood the climate in New England.  There have always been hot days, this isn't Labrador.

13 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Mid 80's and low 90's have never been uncommon in New England during the summer months over the last 150 years.  The biggest increases have been in dewpoints and low temps over the last several decades. If you moved here expecting 60's and 70's during the summer... well... we aren't Canada... :P

Hey now, I relocated to here a year ago. I have experienced a CT summer already. I know that it can and does get into the 90s, I just got the impression from last year that it wasn't something that happens a lot in a given summer like it does where I came from (and last summer was above normal, apparently?), so already being hit with this at the beginning of June is yucky.

Just hope my A/C can keep up with it. I can't afford to get a window unit for my bedroom right now.

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1 hour ago, WinterSnow said:

Hey now, I relocated to here a year ago. I have experienced a CT summer already. I know that it can and does get into the 90s, I just got the impression from last year that it wasn't something that happens a lot in a given summer like it does where I came from (and last summer was above normal, apparently?), so already being hit with this at the beginning of June is yucky.

Just hope my A/C can keep up with it. I can't afford to get a window unit for my bedroom right now.

You got the right impression 

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One thing to note as well for the Thursday - Saturday period is this is going to be much more convective so that opens up the door for some significant rainfall totals (at least locally)...models could certainly end up underdoing the extent of totals. Also, some areas will get significantly rainfall than forecast. Where the front becomes held up could be critical because there could be some major flood concerns up north.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to note as well for the Thursday - Saturday period is this is going to be much more convective so that opens up the door for some significant rainfall totals (at least locally)...models could certainly end up underdoing the extent of totals. Also, some areas will get significantly rainfall than forecast. Where the front becomes held up could be critical because there could be some major flood concerns up north.

I've come to find that the error goes in both directions ... 

They'll error too high on the regional totals ( actually), while down to a handful of towns and counties get Leominstered

Over did the synoptics, but under did the local thunderstorm - but since the latter is inside the regional bounded area, it falsely props up the regional result.    So two wrongs does make a right -

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've come to find that they error goes in both directions ... 

They'll error too high on the regional totals ( actually), while down to a handful of towns and counties get Leominstered

Over did the synoptics, but under did the local thunderstorm - but since the latter is inside the regional bounded area, it falsely props up the regional result.    So two wrongs does make a right -

Agreed with this, great add. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not good. Man these shit Saturday's absolutely suck the life out of the weekends. Hopefully it goes back north or gets more progressive. 

how about if it's training severe ...  nickle hail 3 times with incredible rain rates and overlapping multi-pulser CG bombs  ...otherwise still 76/72-like

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