kdxken Posted Monday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:25 PM 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Love me some heat with low humidity. Alas, that probably won’t verify for very long. Pretty nice one out there today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Today ended up sun and near 80. Certainly none of the doom and gloom TFlizz was calling for yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:29 PM 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Pretty nice one out there today. Yeah. This is pretty great. But for next week, wouldn’t mind some 92/58 type stuff. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Today ended up sun and near 80. Certainly none of the doom and gloom TFlizz was calling for yesterday Damn only hit 69 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:51 PM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like maybe they try to sneak in later in the week. Probably one of those deals where dews are high in the morning and then mix out to near 60 in the aftn? HI at 11:45 am is bigger than 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Might actually squeeze out a nice weekend for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:07 PM From this range you assume the standard corrections. As Scott was saying, the NW flow is likely to offset - this appears to be ( at this time...) trying to take a S/W plateau slab of desert kinetic air and sending over top. This is not initially a Bermuda/Gulf delivery. 99/63-ish more so than 89/76. The other aspect that I think Brian hit on is that normal model magnification may normalize some. A standard heat wave is still going to be a score for modeling and recognition from this range. We'll see how things evolve in guidance I will say though that the ensemble means of all 3 remain impressively amplified, above 594 circumvallate 500 mb ... in fact, it's not even clear it ends but really just loses coherence by virtue of normal member meandering way out in time - there's still arguably vestiges of it there beyond 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:13 PM 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: From this range you assume the standard corrections. As Scott was saying, the NW flow is likely to offset - this appears to be ( at this time...) trying to take a S/W plateau slab of desert kinetic air and sending over top. This is not initially a Bermuda/Gulf delivery. 99/63-ish more so than 89/76. The other aspect that I think Brian hit on is that normal model magnification may normalize some. A standard heat wave is still going to be a score for modeling and recognition from this range. We'll see how things evolve in guidance I will say though that the ensemble means of all 3 remain impressively amplified, above 594 circumvallate 500 mb ... in fact, it's not even clear it ends but really just loses coherence by virtue of normal member meandering way out in time - there's still arguably vestiges of it there beyond 300 hours. Abbreviated translation…… hotter and humid than he’ll summer coming for the next 3 months with no breaks. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:34 PM Euro is a furnace too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I’d hedge that it’s all overdone a bit…mixing and 850s. Knock a couple C off and expect the dews to overperform as usual. 96-99/70 type stuff. Excessive Heat Warnings or bust. 48 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Damn only hit 69 here High of 78° on the dot at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Thoughts and prayers to the hairy cracks in GC. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:59 PM Poor Wintersnow in CT. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:08 PM 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thoughts and prayers to the hairy cracks in GC. This is what we live for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:18 PM While I think it’ll be hot, I’m still skeptical of a long duration “big heat” wave—big heat defined as 95°+ temperatures or 100°+ heat indices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:20 PM So I guess we've reduced the pixel counts/allowance on the site? graphics are being rejected ...ones not particularly expensive either. This is a truncated CFS solution from 12z centered on 204. I thought it interesting to note that this model's climate fusion with the operational GFS is still bursting through that weight and putting this enormous positive anomaly integral fro Colorado to NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:44 PM 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: While I think it’ll be hot, I’m still skeptical of a long duration “big heat” wave—big heat defined as 95°+ temperatures or 100°+ heat indices. Too early to go big ... responsibly, anyway. It's tricky though because ginormous events have a real statistical proven ability to "show up" early and establish themselves in guidance with relative persistence ... compared to say, a big bomb in the winter that comes and goes in the guidance...only to verify as a pedestrian winter storm. Heat is very fragile in the guidance. That's problematic - early detection of historic heat is not really so statistically clad. As I was pointing out earlier, these so -called "synergistic heat events" - codified that way in attribution science related to CC ...etc. - were not seen in the same way prior to their occurrence. The reason for that difference is that they are non-linear - they emerge within the on-going signal. The analogy to "rogue wave" in a choppy sea really does work well. We can predict the stormy sea, we cannot tell if that stormy sea will synergize. In other word, unless we unpack the quantum manifold that excludes time in such a way that all possibilities are known, ...we ain't forecasting Pac NW anytime soon. We can only see the warm pattern. When I see that pattern like that... I agree, let's get the pattern definite. The other aspect is that I don't think the eastern OV up through NE has ever seen a synergistic heat event. It's not a region conducive to that non-linearity. There are places in the ocean where rogue waves are more apt to occur, for example. I'm under the impression that as the analog goes, we are not as heat prone here. Those that hate heat and see 101 on the thermometer would probably rage that we do heat just fine, but Heathrow AP up at London, put up a 105 in 2022, at a latitude 5 degrees N of Caribou Maine. Relative to their climatology, that is a whopper SD larger than anything Boston has seen. That was a patented SHE ... An equivalent temperature at Boston is ~ 112 If the megalopolis from PHL to BOS 2-meter hover T'ed a 112 some fateful afternoon, particularly after it'd been 100 for a couple of stressed out bonker days of it already, ah-heh. right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Monday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:54 PM The northeast has mostly been spared from these CC infused heat waves but is it our time now? The fact ensembles are going this high already is concerning and we have several days to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:57 PM As an after thought the 80F in some Febs and Marches over the last 20 years may qualify … but part of climatology is the time of year. There may be circumstantial limitations (physically) that prevent really truly gaudy I-95 buck.10s that aren’t there in the earlier spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted Monday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:13 PM Have we had any doors this year? Next week maybe? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Today was awesome. High around 80F. Dews in mid-50s. Sun. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSnow Posted Monday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:59 PM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Poor Wintersnow in CT. I was born and raised in this kind of weather. I'll be fine! (Just kidding. It was only like 72 degrees outside and once the sun came out I was suffering. I know you all like to make fun of me, but I think the low heat tolerance is probably medication related, and yes, I'm talking to my doctor about getting off of said medication). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:02 PM 2 minutes ago, WinterSnow said: I was born and raised in this kind of weather. I'll be fine! (Just kidding. It was only like 72 degrees outside and once the sun came out I was suffering. I know you all like to make fun of me, but I think the low heat tolerance is probably medication related, and yes, I'm talking to my doctor about getting off of said medication). Dr Mary Jane can help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:21 PM 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dr Mary Jane can help you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 11:34 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:34 PM Maybe BDL can hit 115 HI ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSnow Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dr Mary Jane can help you. I looked her up and found a GYN that specializes in menopause. Now come on, I'm not that old yet! And then I realized you might be referring to slang instead and I looked that up and... uh. No thanks. I can't stand the smell of that stuff! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted yesterday at 12:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:12 AM 38 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Maybe BDL can hit 115 HI ? Who's gotta match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 11 minutes ago, kdxken said: Who's gotta match? so hot =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted yesterday at 12:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:46 AM *sips my tea knowing I dealt with this shit for 29 straight summers* 6 days til losing daylight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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