June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[ag3]

High of 87.4 on my weather station.

Tremendous bust.

[ForestHillWx]

82/73 here with a good breeze. A little muggy but enjoying it outside before the furnace kicks on. 

[MANDA]

Currently 85 here and swamp ass muggy under partly sunny skies.

Full clearing now moving SE quickly from NW Sussex County.  Should be totally sunny here within the next 60-90 minutes.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop60v.html

[Intensewind002]

87/73 for me in Lindenhurst as of 4 pm

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I am doubtful that we hit 100. The pattern is too active with too many pop-up storms. Once the dew points get to a certain point lift in the atmosphere will easily pop storms. I am looking for 93 at Central Park tomorrow and 98 on Tuesday, 92 on Wednesday. 

WX/PT

well you know how I feel about this, the reason it was so much easier to hit 100 in years like 1993, 1999, 2010 (not to  mention 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966) was because it was so much drier back then.  Lower humidity means less clouds and drier air is easier to heat up

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Notice when we have ridges of this magnitude and strong,  the heat overperforms - assuming enough clearing and no seabreeze, outside of central park.  

but back in the previous era when it was drier, you probably didn't need ridges this strong to have triple digit temperatures.  Being stuck in swampy air means a slower rise in temperatures.

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I consider 98 as a bust when the Euro is saying 106 still. 

to be fair, we all knew it wasn't going to be 106 in June lol, let alone 108 which it also showed for one or two runs.

 

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

to be fair, we all knew it wasn't going to be 106 in June lol, let alone 108 which it also showed for one or two runs.

 

Euro is still showing those numbers for Tuesday, either it will bust badly or will score a great coup

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Sundog said:

As fake as midnight highs

it's trying its best to get to 90 here we have partly sunny skies now.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Euro is still showing those numbers for Tuesday, either it will bust badly or will score a great coup

wow, has the GFS moved towards it at all or still going with mid 90s?

[donsutherland1]

After this morning’s light rain and thunder.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After this morning’s light rain and thunder.

where is this beautiful idyllic place Don?

the grass looks so soft you could sleep on it and have the sweetest of dreams.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

where is this beautiful idyllic place Don?

the grass looks so soft you could sleep on it and have the sweetest of dreams.

looks like Larchmont/Mamaroneck area.

[Snowlover11]

89 here. 

[nycwinter]

sun angle is decreasing we finally have turned the corner it wont be long now before we will notice the effect of diminishing daylight..

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

89 here. 

Same here, one degree shy of yesterday

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

sun angle is decreasing we finally have turned the corner it wont be long now before we will notice the effect of diminishing daylight..

May I introduce you to September 1953 when it hit 102 on the 2nd?

Or September 1983 when it was 99 on the 11th?

Or October 2019 when it was 95 on the 4th?

 

 

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where is this beautiful idyllic place Don?

the grass looks so soft you could sleep on it and have the sweetest of dreams.

Manor Park in Larchmont 

[Sundog]

Saturday 0z RGEM run was giving NYC low 100s for tomorrow, the latest 18z RGEM shows only 95 before a major ocean push cools everyone down quickly. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That must be where the clearing is coming from.

JFK is approaching a late day 100 heat index.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   90  74  59 W12       29.99S HX  99

[steve392]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

sun angle is decreasing we finally have turned the corner it wont be long now before we will notice the effect of diminishing daylight..

shorts and hoodie season fast approaching!!!!

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Saturday 0z RGEM run was giving NYC low 100s for tomorrow, the latest 18z RGEM shows only 95 before a major ocean push cools everyone down quickly. 

Everyone? Nah. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Saturday 0z RGEM run was giving NYC low 100s for tomorrow, the latest 18z RGEM shows only 95 before a major ocean push cools everyone down quickly. 

The RGEM and GFS have a regional high around 102°-103° for Tuesday. So if we compromise between them and the Euro, then somebody gets to the 102°-105° range. Since the GFS and RGEM have a small cool bias. Euro does best with full sun and strong WAA. 

[JerseyWx]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After this morning’s light rain and thunder.

Now that's a good shot, as they usually are.  This is particularly nice though with the contrasting blue and green.

33 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

sun angle is decreasing we finally have turned the corner it wont be long now before we will notice the effect of diminishing daylight..

You got a long road ahead bud.  We have 8:30 sunsets until mid July.  The small amount of daylight lost is due to sunrises.

[dmillz25]

90 here now late day high

[FPizz]

87 today...just a 7 degree miss on a 12 hour forecast.  

[dWave]

Steady temp at 90 dew 73

[donsutherland1]

Following this morning's showers and thundershowers, heat began surging into the region. Through 5 pm, highs at JFK Airport and Newark had reached 91°. 

Extreme heat is likely tomorrow, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey during the height of the heat on Tuesday. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

June Monthly Records:

Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952

June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area. 

For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +8.58 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.777 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4° (1.4° above normal). 

 

[winterwx21]

87 here. Looks as if we're not gonna make it to 90. Never would've thought that yesterday would be hotter than today, but of course the models missed the fact that the rain/clouds would make it this far south today. So that messed up what should have been a 5 day heat wave here. 

[Sundog]

23 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Everyone? Nah. 

I asked myself if I should go back and change that as I posted it lol. 

Most people are in the 80s by Monday evening.