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June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike


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31 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m hoping it never happens, one of the biggest things I worry about on this island. Cat 3 or worse would be catastrophic for us. 

Yes, even a Cat 1 might be too much, do you remember when we had that high end tropical storm that moved to our west a few years ago? My house was shaking with 80 mph wind gusts.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, even a Cat 1 might be too much, do you remember when we had that high end tropical storm that moved to our west a few years ago? My house was shaking with 80 mph wind gusts.

Isaias. Yeah was pretty gusty. Had to drive from south shore to north shore about 4pm and saw plenty of damage. Power at Huntington LIRR was out.  

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The operational ECMWF and GFS are now in good agreement that daily record temperatures will likely be challenged or broken during June 23-24 across the New York City region. June monthly records could be challenged, as well.

EFI for June 23:

image.png.4d91a4e35bd7e9239c7e479003a81237.png

EFI for June 24:

image.png.3b5c2f53369b96875d7469c0bfe58ddd.png

Select Data:

image.png.55522bfabb8217bc8d7cc19d1ea4ef7d.png

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Pretty underwhelming here, just some moderate rain at best.  I feel like the strongest severe storms pop up on days when there's less risk.  Today I think we were in enhanced.  It's not like we need the rain anyway.

Breeze kicking up now and can already notice a significant drop in humidity.

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Again 2 nights in a row. GFS significant backdoor cold front comes through on Wednesday. CMC, backdoor cold front remains to our north for the entire week. It's the difference between a 3-4 day heatwave starting Sunday and a 5-6 day heatwave starting Sunday. Whatever, upper 90s to lower 100s likely at least Monday & Tuesday. Notably, GFS has a second surge of 90+ degree heat later in the period for at least Saturday 6/28 & Sunday 6/29.

WX/PT

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On 6/18/2025 at 11:34 AM, Sundog said:

Either we have siting standards or we don't.

Central Park's weather station, located at Belvedere Castle, has been recognized as a Centennial Observing Station by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This designation acknowledges the station's continuous, high-quality meteorological measurements for over a century. The Central Park station is one of only eleven such stations in the United States to receive this recognition. 
 
Among the recognition criteria is that Any known observing station relocation or change in the measurement technique have not significantly affected the climatological time-series data.
 
Among the siting standards is that A weather station is supposed to be in an open area, not underneath trees and overgrowth. The best site for the measurements is, therefore, over level ground, freely exposed to sunshine and wind and not shielded by, or close to, trees, buildings and other obstructions.
 
I would argue that the instrument relocation is a qualitative change that materially compromises the long term time series data and defeats the goal of accurate scientific comparison, sort of like the Roger Maris, Mark McGuire asterisk controversy in baseball. Regardless of whether one agrees with this view, it is irrefutable that the siting guidelines are being violated.

 

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Apart from time series comparisons is the issue of comparing NYC weather and climate with other locations and regions and also describing NYC summer weather characteristics to the general public. In the interest of simplicity, summer weather is frequently measured by the number of days which exceed 90 degrees while other factors, such as high minimum temperatures, are basically ignored. Recently, a top meteorologist at a leading weather service provider was giving his summer forecast and it was based on the number of 90 degree days. If I remember correctly he used 16 days as average for NYC while the corresponding figures for other cities were 14 for Boston, 30 for Philly and 40 for DC. While it is certainly true that PHL and DCA have higher summer maxima, this gives the misimpression that overall summer conditions for NYC (usually interpreted as Manhattan) and Boston are largely indistinguishable. Of course you can blame the one dimensional criterion that he used but the thermometer siting is certainly a nontrivial factor. Just as an aside, when comparing NYC to other locations, an overwhelming number of observations are taken in airport or urban environments so maybe concrete is a more useful comparison.

 

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