June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Day #5 with rain. 

Another heavy mist and foggy morning.  This gets my nomination for worst June stretch ever.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

that is not an intellectually correct argument.

 

The air became more moist in the 2010s…significantly so.

 

That is the reason why we’ve had a significant decline in triple digit heat, but our overnight lows are much warmer.

 

You are an intelligent person.

 

You do yourself a disservice when you’re trying to push a narrative all the time.

 

It’s getting warmer and we know that, but it’s also getting more moist hence the decline in the daytime highs and the significantly warmer nighttime lows.

 

A few leaves in CPK doesnt mean much.

Taking the temperatures under the trees at Central Park since 1995 has resulted in the high temperatures getting artificially suppressed on sunny and warm days by 3° to 4°. So the annual number of 90° degree days has artificially declined to 18 to 19 under the trees next to the castle instead of 27 to 28 days on clearings like the Great Lawn. This is why NYC would be closer to Newark on 90° days prior to 1995 and significantly more than LGA. Now NYC is significantly below both stations. So losing 10 days reaching 90° a year to the trees is a big deal.

What we have witnessed since 2013 has been a shift to wetter and more onshore flow. So this is why the 2010 and 2011 summer heat for maximum temperatures of 108° still hasn’t been rivaled. But areas away from the sea breeze influence in NJ have exceeded by a few days their 90° and 95° day counts in 2010 during the 2022 summer. Areas further east couldn’t due to all the onshore flow. Some spots in NJ exceeded their 100° day numbers from 2010 in 2022.

We have still managed to experience all-time summer June monthly heat away sea breeze influence in June during the 2020s. This is why the June 100° heat during this decade has been so much higher than it was during the 2010s. Those summers mostly featured 100° heat focused in July. It has almost been monsoon-like since 2020 with the strongest summer heat before the heavy rain and floods arrive. 

So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. Interior sections of Queens like Corona have been in line with the 100° day counts in NJ. But local breezes off he water have kept the numbers down at LGA, JFK, ISP, and BDR and other coastal sections. 

All spots around the area with at least 5 days reaching 100° during the 2020s so far

Newark………………10 days

Harrison……………..9 days

Corona, Queens…..6 days

Somerset………….…5 days

Freehold……………..5 days

Canoe Brook……….5 days

 

[SnoSki14]

We'll see if 100+ can be reached. I think central NJ will still hit it but it'll be more difficult now. 

I can see us falling just short, will still be very uncomfortable regardless 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll see if 100+ can be reached. I think central NJ will still hit it but it'll be more difficult now. 

I can see us falling just short, will still be very uncomfortable regardless 

The Euro and CMC both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze Monday through Wednesday. They don’t have the upper low to the east like the GFS shows with its stronger onshore flow. But I agree that NJ will probably see the greatest 100° potential heat next week away from the sea breeze influence. 

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 68 clouds (day 5 hour 108).  Should see some breaks and with the sun temps spike low to upper 80s in the hot spots.  Storms later this evening along the boundary as the warm front comes north further.  Tomorrow a shade hottter than today and again pending on clouds some get their first or next (2nd/ or 3rd) 90 degree reading.   Friday drier transition day before the heat builds in Satruday.  Euro keeps the mini MCS into New England Sat night into Sunday and the GFS gets rain here Saturday night and lingering debris clouds Sunday keeping the rainy weekend consecutive streak hope alive for those few hoping for more rain.  850 MB temps are >18c Sunday and then >21C Mon - Wed , peak heat Mon - Wed, Tue the century mark most probable.

We'll see if the wind / flow keep the N/W component and how hot it'll be.  Looking like starting tomorrow 8 of 10 90 degree days to close the month in the hot spots / wamrest scenario otherwise 5-7 of the next 10.

 

In the way beyond  Beyond there heights look elevated with ridging into the EC with an overall warm - hot but continued wet look.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sundog]

The 6Z Euro AI likes NJ for the 100 degree heat. 

[wdrag]

I haven't had a chance to review all the posts last 4 hours, but from my vantage point. THREE 100 deg days in June is still a possibility INLAND NJ-NYS/CT, BUT, same caveats as yesterday... pattern isobars show quite a bit of weakness so its easier to Seabreeze early in the season, plus T STORM cloud cover debris is unknown.  (not sure how EC spreads 100 so far inland across LI/NYC next week and so I have to expect some tempering of those excessive projections in the weekend updates). 

I think 00z/18 GFS MEX MOS is wayyy too cool on daytimes for KEWR but its something to keep in mind.  

 

Thursday max at KEWR is my decision break point on any 100 degree thread for next week that would possibly issue Thursday evening. 

 

I've no plans to thread tomorrows fairly widespread severe wind potential along I95.

 

Am pretty sure we'll see a a nw flow MCS - iso severe in NY metro early Sunday morning as the warm front returns.

 

My KEWR 90 degree days are Thu,  possibly both Sat/Sun, certainly Mon-Wed and then maybe again Thu and Sat of next week with 3 100's possibly??? embedded between Mon-Sat of next week. 

SVR potential in slow moving deluges wherever sea breezes intersect next Mon-Tue (if not capped).  Noticed besides the 2-4K J ML Cape early next week- there are rather large 7H-5H lapse rates.  IF something goes,  would be microburst w hail/wind/ flooding...thats IFFFF.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Not fun! 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1993)
NYC: 95 (1929)
LGA: 95 (1994)
JFK: 94 (1962)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)
JFK: 53 (1959)

Historical:

 

1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum)

1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel)

 

1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico.

1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[dieselbug]

I know that it often depends on wind direction/humidity but when looking at the models, what is the 850 MB general criteria (for our region) to support 100 degrees?

I had always believed that 850mb temp of 15c would support 90F and 850mb >20c would support 100° F?

[Sundog]

The Euro and AI version are trending down slightly with max heights on Monday and Tuesday. 

Here is an example for the AI Euro for Tuesday:

 

[SACRUS]

 

SSW wind now pushing humidity - Dewpoint 69 here

 

More thinning of the clouds and up to 73

[Wannabehippie]

29 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Not fun! 

The heat index predicted for Sun - Tues are very dangerous. Take care of yourselves those days everyone.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Sundog said:

The Euro and AI version are trending down slightly with max heights on Monday and Tuesday. 

Here is an example for the AI Euro for Monday:

 

At present, I suspect that the most plausible outcome is lower to middle 90s in NYC and upper 90s/near 100 in the hot spots in NJ. Some onshore flow will probably keep the truly extreme heat at bay.

[Sundog]

The regular Euro has seen somewhat larger drops in heights. This is for Monday:

[jm1220]

Totally socked in here with fog. Haven’t seen the sun in 5 days. Truly wretched stretch. 

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The Euro and AI version are trending down slightly with max heights on Monday and Tuesday. 

Here is an example for the AI Euro for Tuesday:

 

Starting to look like more run of the mill type heat for most especially the city and east. The eastern periphery of the ridge is prone to backdoor fronts and cloud/T-storms. Also looks like winds will try hard to veer onshore which heightens the humidity but would make it hard to reach 95. But if we have dewpoints well into the 70s with temps over 90 it’s still disgusting. Just not historic, more like our more typical FL type heat of late. Inland away from the seabreezes or backdoor intrusions can likely make it to 100. 

[MANDA]

Socked in again this morning with clouds, fog, mist and drizzle.  Another .15" rainfall last 24 hours.

Has gotten very humid and on the muggy side.

[Superstorm]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Starting to look like more run of the mill type heat for most especially the city and east. The eastern periphery of the ridge is prone to backdoor fronts and cloud/T-storms. Also looks like winds will try hard to veer onshore which heightens the humidity but would make it hard to reach 95. But if we have dewpoints well into the 70s with temps over 90 it’s still disgusting. Just not historic, more like our more typical FL type heat of late. Inland away from the seabreezes or backdoor intrusions can likely make it to 100. 

Could be some record breaking high minimums.

[nycwinter]

this may be the last day i wear my hoodie for a while..

[SACRUS]

 

Slow to clear

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Taking the temperatures under the trees at Central Park since 1995 has resulted in the high temperatures getting artificially suppressed on sunny and warm days by 3° to 4°. So the annual number of 90° degree days has artificially declined to 18 to 19 under the trees next to the castle instead of 27 to 28 days on clearings like the Great Lawn. This is why NYC would be closer to Newark on 90° days prior to 1995 and significantly more than LGA. Now NYC is significantly below both stations. So losing 10 days reaching 90° a year to the trees is a big deal.

What we have witnessed since 2013 has been a shift to wetter and more onshore flow. So this is why the 2010 and 2011 summer heat for maximum temperatures of 108° still hasn’t been rivaled. But areas away from the sea breeze influence in NJ have exceeded by a few days their 90° and 95° day counts in 2010 during the 2022 summer. Areas further east couldn’t due to all the onshore flow. Some spots in NJ exceeded their 100° day numbers from 2010 in 2022.

We have still managed to experience all-time summer June monthly heat away sea breeze influence in June during the 2020s. This is why the June 100° heat during this decade has been so much higher than it was during the 2010s. Those summers mostly featured 100° heat focused in July. It has almost been monsoon-like since 2020 with the strongest summer heat before the heavy rain and floods arrive. 

So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. Interior sections of Queens like Corona have been in line with the 100° day counts in NJ. But local breezes off he water have kept the numbers down at LGA, JFK, ISP, and BDR and other coastal sections. 

All spots around the area with at least 5 days reaching 100° during the 2020s so far

Newark………………10 days

Harrison……………..9 days

Corona, Queens…..6 days

Somerset………….…5 days

Freehold……………..5 days

Canoe Brook……….5 days

 

mean temps have no real connection to extreme highs, during the summer mean temps are mostly driven by elevated mins, we have the same thing going on here.

 

I can prove this, we have seen an overgrowth of foliage with the wetter climate we have been in.  This isn't merely about them neglecting trimming the foliage, it's about this kind of overgrowth not being in existence in the 1930s-1950s when we had many more extremely hot days and a much drier climate. The pictures you posted prove it-- during that earlier era we did not have as much foliage as we have now in our parks and that's because it was much drier back then, which is also why the extreme heat was much hotter

Sure, the places you listed just now are hotter, but it's because they exist in an artificial concrete climate without much in the way of trees.  Coast or no coast, there is no way we would EVER match the extreme heat of the 1930s-1950s except for brief intervals like the 1990s and the early 2010s, unless we switch back to a much drier climate.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Slow to clear

 

It's a tropical rain forest here, I have so much overgrowth going on here that I'm spraying defoliant to kill everything.  I have no time to cut this forest I have going on in my front yard, so spraying it is.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Could be some record breaking high minimums.

Yes as usual in our new climate, without the 100+ highs.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Starting to look like more run of the mill type heat for most especially the city and east. The eastern periphery of the ridge is prone to backdoor fronts and cloud/T-storms. Also looks like winds will try hard to veer onshore which heightens the humidity but would make it hard to reach 95. But if we have dewpoints well into the 70s with temps over 90 it’s still disgusting. Just not historic, more like our more typical FL type heat of late. Inland away from the seabreezes or backdoor intrusions can likely make it to 100. 

I predicted this shit days ago.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Starting to look like more run of the mill type heat for most especially the city and east. The eastern periphery of the ridge is prone to backdoor fronts and cloud/T-storms. Also looks like winds will try hard to veer onshore which heightens the humidity but would make it hard to reach 95. But if we have dewpoints well into the 70s with temps over 90 it’s still disgusting. Just not historic, more like our more typical FL type heat of late. Inland away from the seabreezes or backdoor intrusions can likely make it to 100. 

101 degrees with a dew point of 45 would be far more comfortable and represent a lower power load.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At present, I suspect that the most plausible outcome is lower to middle 90s in NYC and upper 90s/near 100 in the hot spots in NJ. Some onshore flow will probably keep the truly extreme heat at bay.

as usual in our new climate, this isn't the 1950s.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1993)
NYC: 95 (1929)
LGA: 95 (1994)
JFK: 94 (1962)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)
JFK: 53 (1959)

Historical:

 

1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum)

1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel)

 

1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico.

1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

EWR: 97 (1993)

now this is what a real hot summer is like....something we haven't seen in a long time.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

EWR: 97 (1993)

now this is what a real hot summer is like....something we haven't seen in a long time.

 

Although EWR has in 2022 most recently if you are going by 90 degree days.

 

look at the record cool in the 50s

 

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)
JFK: 53 (1959)
 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Taking the temperatures under the trees at Central Park since 1995 has resulted in the high temperatures getting artificially suppressed on sunny and warm days by 3° to 4°. So the annual number of 90° degree days has artificially declined to 18 to 19 under the trees next to the castle instead of 27 to 28 days on clearings like the Great Lawn. This is why NYC would be closer to Newark on 90° days prior to 1995 and significantly more than LGA. Now NYC is significantly below both stations. So losing 10 days reaching 90° a year to the trees is a big deal.

What we have witnessed since 2013 has been a shift to wetter and more onshore flow. So this is why the 2010 and 2011 summer heat for maximum temperatures of 108° still hasn’t been rivaled. But areas away from the sea breeze influence in NJ have exceeded by a few days their 90° and 95° day counts in 2010 during the 2022 summer. Areas further east couldn’t due to all the onshore flow. Some spots in NJ exceeded their 100° day numbers from 2010 in 2022.

We have still managed to experience all-time summer June monthly heat away sea breeze influence in June during the 2020s. This is why the June 100° heat during this decade has been so much higher than it was during the 2010s. Those summers mostly featured 100° heat focused in July. It has almost been monsoon-like since 2020 with the strongest summer heat before the heavy rain and floods arrive. 

So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. Interior sections of Queens like Corona have been in line with the 100° day counts in NJ. But local breezes off he water have kept the numbers down at LGA, JFK, ISP, and BDR and other coastal sections. 

All spots around the area with at least 5 days reaching 100° during the 2020s so far

Newark………………10 days

Harrison……………..9 days

Corona, Queens…..6 days

Somerset………….…5 days

Freehold……………..5 days

Canoe Brook……….5 days

 

So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. 

 

Oh yes there's been a notable decline in 100 degree heat, nothing to match 1993's 9 days of 100+ or 1949's 8 days of 100+ at EWR..... cmon Chris, CC has more of an influence on mins than it does on maxes and thats because of our new wetter climate.

It's got way more to do with more rainfall and more of a subtropical rainforest climate we have now vs what we had in the 1930s-50s and the 1990s.