June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[steve392]

Is it to early for rainfall totals yet? 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn noticeably warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising into the lower and middle 80s across the region. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with the mercury rising into at least the upper 80s. A few of the warmer spots could reach 90°. Friday will see temperatures top out near 80°, but it will turn cooler for the weekend.

No exceptional heat appears likely through mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was -7.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.276 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

[steve392]

Some great looking storm clouds to my NNW. 

 

[Snowlover11]

nice little downpour here, gusty wind and extremely heavy rain.

[steve392]

Bought to a quick hitter

 

[BxEngine]

That was the weirdest line of heavy rain ive ever seen. Some of the hardest rain in awhile, but sunshine visible on both sides of the line. Line was built enough to almost look like a shelf cloud. Impressive few minutes.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will turn noticeably warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising into the lower and middle 80s across the region. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with the mercury rising into at least the upper 80s. A few of the warmer spots could reach 90°. Friday will see temperatures top out near 80°, but it will turn cooler for the weekend.

No exceptional heat appears likely through mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was -7.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.276 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

The wind on Thursday will be a strong downslope wind and there will be little to no haze so those *hot* spots may include the south shore of Long Island, we could hit 90 here.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

That was the weirdest line of heavy rain ive ever seen. Some of the hardest rain in awhile, but sunshine visible on both sides of the line. Line was built enough to almost look like a shelf cloud. Impressive few minutes.

There must have been a rainbow visible somewhere close by.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, steve392 said:

Gorgeous out right now.  Nice cool breeze, wind chimes.. Chiming and boxer running around like an idiot lol

Boxers are great dogs!!

[winterwarlock]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

We can hope, but accuracy at that range is very low. 

Its been accurate when it calls for rain 7-10 days ahead

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The wind on Thursday will be a strong downslope wind and there will be little to no haze so those *hot* spots may include the south shore of Long Island, we could hit 90 here.

From the NOAA marine forecast. That would be a sea breeze. 
THU
SW winds around 10 kt

[jm1220]

Might be hazy tomorrow-HRRR shows another smoke plume coming east behind the front. 

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Boxers are great dogs!!

Probably once out of puppy stage.  Right now he's a lunatic and menace at times. 

[dWave]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean summertime high temperatures have risen by 2-3F since 1990. If that trend continues, average summer highs should reach the upper 80s around NYC by 2050, by which time, there should be a marked increase in the number of 90F days [similar to the observed increase in 85F days over the past several decades].

Normal highs already max out in the upper 80s. Since July daily averages are pretty flat, the avg high for the month is nearly the same.

87/72 at LGA

EWR 87/70

Teterboro 87/69

Meanwhile Central Park tops out at 85/71.

Philly 88/70

Down in DC they now have normals in July at 90...90/73

[SACRUS]

 

Today's (6/10) Highs

 

 

PHL: 84
ACY: 82
TTN: 80
New Brnswck: 79
TEB: 79
EWR: 79
BLM: 78
LGA: 76
JFK: 75
ISP: 75

NYC: 73

 

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Might be hazy tomorrow-HRRR shows another smoke plume coming east behind the front. 

Yeah, it's coming. 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But that heat won't move east from there unfortunately. July 2010 was much hotter here, as was July 1999 and July 1993 before that.

 

The period right after the solstice looks like our first 95°+ major heat potential especially in the usual warm spots as a piece of the Western drought feedback heat starts moving east. The source region is very dry. So even though we have been very wet, any heat coming from that area will have the potential to overperform at least for a few days. 

Warmer and drier June 23 to 30 on EPS forecast

 

[Sundog]

Models have Father's Day ruined. 

 

[qg_omega]

Over an inch of rain yesterday

[Brian5671]

Been a damp, lousy last 30 days

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Been a damp, lousy last 30 days

This stretch of late May into mid June is often times our best weather before the summer heat arrives. Not this year

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Models have Father's Day ruined. 

 

Another washed out weekend? NEVER I tell you! 

[Brian5671]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Another washed out weekend? NEVER I tell you! 

RGEM and NAMS are dry for a chunk of Sat-but they are out of range as that is hour 84

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 56 hazy (smoke) otherwise partly sunny- sunny.  Back to the 80s today - warmer tomorrow with the next or first 90 for the hotter spots in C/N -NJ perhaps even east.  A bit cooler Friday but still sunny/ dry.  Next stretch of 96 hours of clouds and front over or near by bring 1 - 1.5 inches of rain between overnight Friday into next  Tuesday.   Beyond there overall warm / wet with heat from the west building north and east by the 20th as it turns hotter but looks to remain with rain/storms chances keeping it overall wet.

6/11 - 6/13 :  Warm up , dry
6/14 - 6/17 : Front - clouds, rain 1-2 inches
6/18 - 6/19 : warmer
6/20 - beyond : warm-hot / wet overall western heat building north=east

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (2000)
NYC: 95 (1973)
LGA: 96 (1984)
JFK: 93 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 46 (1980)
NYC: 46 (1972)
LGA: 46 (1972)
JFK: 48 (1980)



Historical:

 

1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum)

1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter."

1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel)

 

1915: A tornado moved slowly northeast from southwest of Mullinville, KS, allowing people to reach shelter from this extremely large tornado. One entire farm was completely swept away on the edge of Mullinville, and many more homes were destroyed. As it moved northeast, eight separate funnels were noted at one time under the huge rotating cloud. Damage totaled $75,000 dollars. It was reported that three mules were carried two miles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1947: An unusually cold late season storm system brought significant snow to Cheyenne, WY. By the end of the day, 4.4 inches of snow had fallen, and the snow continued into the 12th. A trace of snow fell at Denver, CO. They also set a daily record low of 34°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954: A strong heat wave hit much of the Midwest. Chicago, IL set a record high of 97°. This began an 11-day run with high temperatures of 90° or higher. Two high temperature records were set during that period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: FROST at Big Meadows, VA 31°, Blacksburg, VA 30°, Dulles, VA 40°, KDCA 47°, Naked creek, Virginia 32° . Dozens of locations in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England reported record chill thanks to Canadian high pressure. Muskegon, MI set a June record low of 31°. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Elkins, WV: 29°, Beckley, WV: 32°, Charleston, WV: 33°, Baltimore, MD: 40°, Dulles Airport, VA: 40°, Lynchburg, VA: 41°, Richmond, VA: 48° and Norfolk, VA: 53°.

 

1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm.

1993: The first federal Disaster Declaration was issued for parts of Minnesota hard hit by the beginning stages of the Great Midwest Flood of 1993. By August, parts of nine states were declared disaster areas. The entire state of Iowa was declared a disaster area. The flood was the worst this century in the U.S. Damage totaled almost $20 billion dollars. More than 50,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: Lightning struck a metal garage door in Franklintown, PA. A man leaning against the door was partially paralyzed for nearly a day. It was the 2nd time in the last 10 years the 30-yr-old man had been hit by lightning. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: Hail five inches in diameter fell 13 miles southeast of Mullinville, KS. There was a report of 10 head of cattle killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: On this date through the 14th, several hailstorms occurred across Eastern Colorado. Hail accumulated to a depth of 12 inches near Colorado Springs, CO. The roof on a business gave way under the weight of the hail. Damage in the Denver area totaled $35 million dollars ($17.5 million dollars from auto claims and $17.5 million from homeowner claims). Areas hardest hit included: Castle Rock, Commerce City, Evergreen and Golden. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

[bluewave]

This rainfall gradient almost reminds me of the snowfall gradient during 93-94. Heaviest rains further north in spots like the Poconos. But less than half the totals closer to Central NJ.
 

Data for May 1, 2025 through June 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	14.44
PA	POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	14.06
PA	STRAUSSTOWN 1.5 N	CoCoRaHS	13.28
NJ	BUTLER 0.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	13.23
PA	BATH 1.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	12.74
PA	QUAKERTOWN 1.9 NNE	CoCoRaHS	12.65
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	12.46
PA	ALLENTOWN 2.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	12.46

NJ	FREEHOLD TWP 0.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	5.32
NJ	NEPTUNE TWP 2.2 E	CoCoRaHS	5.31
NJ	OCEAN TWP 0.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.29
NJ	LOWER TWP 3.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	5.28

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

From the NOAA marine forecast. That would be a sea breeze. 
THU
SW winds around 10 kt

Yes, for the ocean, not for where we live.

And even if that happens, it will happen after it's already hit 90.

I looked at the hautographs, it shows a SW wind over the ocean and a westerly wind over land (including here).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This rainfall gradient almost reminds me of the snowfall gradient during 93-94. Heaviest rains further north in spots like the Poconos. But less than half the totals closer to Central NJ.
 

Data for May 1, 2025 through June 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	14.44
PA	POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	14.06
PA	STRAUSSTOWN 1.5 N	CoCoRaHS	13.28
NJ	BUTLER 0.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	13.23
PA	BATH 1.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	12.74
PA	QUAKERTOWN 1.9 NNE	CoCoRaHS	12.65
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	12.46
PA	ALLENTOWN 2.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	12.46

NJ	FREEHOLD TWP 0.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	5.32
NJ	NEPTUNE TWP 2.2 E	CoCoRaHS	5.31
NJ	OCEAN TWP 0.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.29
NJ	LOWER TWP 3.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	5.28

This is great, the last thing we need is rain.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The period right after the solstice looks like our first 95°+ major heat potential especially in the usual warm spots as a piece of the Western drought feedback heat starts moving east. The source region is very dry. So even though we have been very wet, any heat coming from that area will have the potential to overperform at least for a few days. 

Warmer and drier June 23 to 30 on EPS forecast

 

Hopefully it will also dry out here and give us a dry hot summer with less than 2 inches of rain during the summer months (J/A at least.)

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

Probably once out of puppy stage.  Right now he's a lunatic and menace at times. 

They need a lot of attention, has he been trying to eat your walls lol