OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25

[wdrag]

Isolated 4" rainfall possible by daybreak Saturday for w CT, se NYS where OKX has issued a flood watch this Friday afternoon 5/8/25.  Most modeling has a needed 1-3" spread out over a 36-42 hour period ending Saturday morning.  Flood guidance suggests we'll need 2.5" in a 6 hour period for flooding. 

Lesser rainfall LI NJ and ne PA under 1.5". 

A snapshot of ensemble forecasts showing minor flooding anticipated at several gages in the north part of the NYC subforum. 

Long ways to go.  We'll add some CoCoRaHs amounts at 9A Friday and see where we stand.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.62 125P-7P. 

[Snowlover11]

tiny burst of rain over yonkers, we will see what today(friday) brings.

[IrishRob17]

Steady rain with .67" in the last 24 hours, 2.82" for the month, 48/47 up here in north central Orange County. The radar is loaded with the heaviest just to my west at the moment. 

[Brian5671]

Looks like a relative dry slot for NYC and much of NJ

[steve392]

Moderate rain started falling the minute I hit route 80 for work.  Steady rain now in Mahwah.  Stuff is slow moving too.

[wdrag]

I still dont quite understand the Watch in our area and its expansion but going with it.

NYS mesonet all under 1" so far.

 

NJ however, this is legit. Click for clarity. Wantage fits with at least 1.34 so far... needed.

[IrishRob17]

Just hit 1” here with steady rain, 3.15” this month.   

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I still dont quite understand the Watch in our area and its expansion but going with it.

NYS mesonet all under 1" so far.

 

NJ however, this is legit. Click for clarity. Wantage fits with at least 1.34 so far... needed.

Yep, much more needed there than here, Walt.  Eastern PA is also going to get  a lot of rain (they had 3.6 inches with the last event in the Poconos too.)

[gravitylover]

.75 since yesterday afternoon but 3.8" since 5/2. I could definitely see a quick inch causing some flash flooding issues, the water doesn't really have anywhere to go now so it's just going to run off.  

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a relative dry slot for NYC and much of NJ

As modeled

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

As modeled

seems larger than modeled-almost no precip outside of one band moving through now-maybe it fills in a bit later-but the flood watch for some areas may be over-done

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

seems larger than modeled-almost no precip outside of one band moving through now-maybe it fills in a bit later-but the flood watch for some areas may be over-done

We’ll see what this heavy rain area over coastal NJ does but I’m doubting anything from the city east that causes flooding unless something trains and that might be over eastern Suffolk. Wouldn’t be surprised if I end up under 0.5”. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll see what this heavy rain area over coastal NJ does but I’m doubting anything from the city east that causes flooding unless something trains and that might be over eastern Suffolk. Wouldn’t be surprised if I end up under 0.5”. 

HRRR shows the northern extent filling in a bit-nails Suffolk and CT and the hudson valley

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR shows the northern extent filling in a bit-nails Suffolk and CT and the hudson valley

We’ll see, hopefully it’s right. Could be a brief heavy rain batch here while eastern Suffolk gets drenched with the stuff off the NJ coast. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll see, hopefully it’s right. Could be a brief heavy rain batch here while eastern Suffolk gets drenched with the stuff off the NJ coast. 

it's raining here now but more moderate than heavy.

 

[IrishRob17]

Thanks to the mud that was already in place around here, lots of running water along the roads, near full gully's, puddles in the fields and yards. Up to 1.20" since yesterday with continued steady rain, 47/46. 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs climate observers 24 hr qpf ending 845A/9

 

Click for clarity.

[jm1220]

Looks like eastern 2/3 of Suffolk about to get slammed. Split-screw west of there. 

[Tatamy]

Vorticity observed on radar with the band moving into Suffolk County.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like eastern 2/3 of Suffolk about to get slammed. Split-screw west of there. 

Pretty amazing that it has such a similar look on the radar from the last event. Maybe 30 miles west. Almost like atmospheric recall.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty amazing that it has such a similar look on the radar from the last event. Maybe 30 miles west. Almost like atmospheric recall.

Does it have anything to do with the gulf stream?

We just had another bout of heavy rain a few minutes ago.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty amazing that it has such a similar look on the radar from the last event. Maybe 30 miles west. Almost like atmospheric recall.

One positive is that now both weekend days are forecast to be dry.  So this will be gone by tomorrow morning.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does it have anything to do with the gulf stream?

We just had another bout of heavy rain a few minutes ago.

That’s my theory. This time of year there is a huge temperature difference at the north wall of the Gulf Stream. From 80 degree water to 50s in a matter of miles. And the convection seems to fire just to the north west of the north wall. 

[Superstorm]

52F
1.13” of rain since midnight
2.00” for storm total through 11:00 am today


.

[IrishRob17]

1.87" since yesterday, 4.04" for the month, 48/47 with steady rain ongoing.

[STORMANLI]

0.57"

[FPizz]

.92" since last night.  Light rain now

[winterwx21]

Only 0.16" here this morning after missing yesterday's storms. Hoping to get some more rain this afternoon. The stuff in PA should swing through here. 

[steve392]

Veolia Water co just informed us that Oradell Reservoir is less than an hour from spilling over the dam.  Guess it's been filled up this week.