May 2025

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month will be cooler than normal overall.

Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cooler next week following the coming weekend. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +7.60 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.278 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Good, we need a break from this now.

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I thought you wanted it hotter. Also, not sure about drier summers, volcanos typically cause colder, wetter summers, no? 1992 was the 3rd wettest summer on record following the Pinatubo eruption.

No because the sulfates are modeled by simulations to dry out the monsoon seasons and move them further south.  With wind circulations the way they are that drier air from the SW would be transported here.

I like hotter day time highs and lower night time lows, in other words, more extremes.

I'm not sure it would function like Pinatubo did because this involves a much lower amount of particle injection plus it would have to be redone every year.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know what trough was over the Ohio Valley last summer. The region saw the worst drought since the Drought Monitor began in 2000 for many areas, with the most 90+ days in decades [and hottest temps in decades in some spots].

we need that over here!

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 78 after the storms now cloudy again.  

[LoboLeader1]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

I believe it when I se it.

[JerseyWx]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

Yeah it seems to be a pattern where we get a couple nice dry days, followed by a run of humid and terrible crap.  I hope this doesn't last into summer.

[LoboLeader1]

On 4/27/2025 at 7:14 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Will we see our first heatwave? Severe weather? Or just a continuation of average to below average precip, above average temps and windy conditions? 

Severe Wx resides out west, better there than here.

[Sundog]

There's some serious activity around Baltimore:

[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it seems to be a pattern where we get a couple nice dry days, followed by a run of humid and terrible crap.  I hope this doesn't last into summer.

the longer we can hold off real summer heat the happier i am...

[steve392]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

Noooo, I've fought tooth and nail to get off 4 hours early at work to goto the mets Dodgers game Friday 

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

There's some serious activity around Baltimore:

The same areas that had the tornado warnings earlier are going to get crushed again

70 mph winds and ping pong ball hail

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

 

Honestly I'd rather live in an area that's a dud for wind events. 

Remarkably despite this I have lost plenty of huge old trees to wind. And some to the POS Emerald Ash Borer but that's not the weather's fault lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

Here in WB several years ago maybe 2019 I forget but we had some crazy severe come through and I think some winds over 100mph and I had no power for four days 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Here in WB several years ago maybe 2019 I forget but we had some crazy severe come through and I think some winds over 100mph and I had no power for four days 

YES! My gf was living there at the time. The tree damage was pretty incredible. Lots of mature trees snapped like 20’ up. The kind of damage that only happens with 80+mph straight line winds. I wish I was there for the storm. I saw it that evening. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

YES! My gf was living there at the time. The tree damage was pretty incredible. Lots of mature trees snapped like 20’ up. The kind of damage that only happens with 80+mph straight line winds. I wish I was there for the storm. I saw it that evening. 

We thought it was a tornado and we went down to the basement. When we came up it looked like a tornado hit lol. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Pretty amazing how consistently all the storms the last two days are either North or South. Just enough stabilizing marine layer to kill our storm chances. 

[SACRUS]

 

69 / 64 Partly cloudy - going cloudy then should clear later.  Front/clouds too soon to push any shot at 90 in the warmer spots - cloud in the way.  Still the warmest day of the next 14.   Dry and near normal - nice stretch 5/18 - Tue 5/20.  By Wed 5/21 clouds and trough cutting off.  Raw cool / wet Thu 5/22 - Fri 5/23  1.25 - 2.00 inches of rain.  Perhaps we can salvage part of Sat 5/24 and then Sun 5/25 - Mon Memorial Day 5/26.  Beyond there the month closes out with trough stingy into the east overall near normal.   

Still - the building heat into the rockies expands east and will see next month open much warmer and the first chance at some heat evolve.

 

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty amazing how consistently all the storms the last two days are either North or South. Just enough stabilizing marine layer to kill our storm chances. 

The humidity is brutal.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1974)
NYC: 92 (1974)
LGA: 94 (2017)
JFK: 89 (1974)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1956)
NYC: 39 (1956)
LGA: 38 (1983)
JFK: 42 (1983)

 

Historical:

1825 - A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum)

 

 

1794: An "uncommon frost" in all of New England destroyed crops. The account was published in the collections of the Massachusetts Historical Society.

1896: An estimated F5 tornado tracked 100 miles through northeastern Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska. Seneca, Oneida, Sabetha, and Reserve, Kansas sustained severe damage. While passing through Reserve, the tornado was 2 miles wide. 25 people were killed, and 200 were injured. The cost was estimated at $400,000.

1960 - Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: A reading of 12 degrees at Mauna Kea Observatory established a record low for the state of Hawaii.

1980 - Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1997: Today’s 2 inch snowfall was the last measurable total for the 1996-97 snow season in Herman, MI. The total for the season: 384.0 inches, a new MI record. The previous record was set during the 1995-96 season: 347.0 inches (also in Herman). Herman averages 239.7 inches per season.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Only if any, light showers as the front passes through as the DElMARVA gets the heaviest and strongest storms..  Should clear out by noon -1:00PM.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Next week the rain between wed evening and Friday evening

 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro still not updating on EWALL but all 3 are in fairly good alignment with trough stingy into the or off the NE through Memorial Day weekend but we could salvage part of Saturday - Sun - Monday with dry weather but near or below normal.

 

[TWCCraig]

12 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Here in WB several years ago maybe 2019 I forget but we had some crazy severe come through and I think some winds over 100mph and I had no power for four days 

Here we had two separate downburst thunderstorms come through in 2019, one in late June and one in August. Both caused extensive damage in the area. Radar estimated 80mph winds. Two severe storms in one season and it's been quiet ever since. I remember we got a decent thunderstorm in December last year lol

[LibertyBell]

it's been nice and sunny  ever since I woke up at 6:30 am here.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

I'm not sure there is anyone who actually wants severe weather.

It's best where no human structures exist.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, nycwinter said:

the longer we can hold off real summer heat the happier i am...

humidity is MUCH worse than heat

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Here we had two separate downburst thunderstorms come through in 2019, one in late June and one in August. Both caused extensive damage in the area. Radar estimated 80mph winds. Two severe storms in one season and it's been quiet ever since. I remember we got a decent thunderstorm in December last year lol

New Years Eve had our best thunderstorms in many years here.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Only if any, light showers as the front passes through as the DElMARVA gets the heaviest and strongest storms..  Should clear out by noon -1:00PM.

 

it's been nice and sunny ever since I woke up this morning :-)