May 2025

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month will be cooler than normal overall.

Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cooler next week following the coming weekend. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +7.60 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.278 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Good, we need a break from this now.

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I thought you wanted it hotter. Also, not sure about drier summers, volcanos typically cause colder, wetter summers, no? 1992 was the 3rd wettest summer on record following the Pinatubo eruption.

No because the sulfates are modeled by simulations to dry out the monsoon seasons and move them further south.  With wind circulations the way they are that drier air from the SW would be transported here.

I like hotter day time highs and lower night time lows, in other words, more extremes.

I'm not sure it would function like Pinatubo did because this involves a much lower amount of particle injection plus it would have to be redone every year.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know what trough was over the Ohio Valley last summer. The region saw the worst drought since the Drought Monitor began in 2000 for many areas, with the most 90+ days in decades [and hottest temps in decades in some spots].

we need that over here!

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 78 after the storms now cloudy again.  

[LoboLeader1]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

I believe it when I se it.

[JerseyWx]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

Yeah it seems to be a pattern where we get a couple nice dry days, followed by a run of humid and terrible crap.  I hope this doesn't last into summer.

[LoboLeader1]

On 4/27/2025 at 7:14 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Will we see our first heatwave? Severe weather? Or just a continuation of average to below average precip, above average temps and windy conditions? 

Severe Wx resides out west, better there than here.

[Sundog]

There's some serious activity around Baltimore:

[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it seems to be a pattern where we get a couple nice dry days, followed by a run of humid and terrible crap.  I hope this doesn't last into summer.

the longer we can hold off real summer heat the happier i am...

[steve392]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!

Noooo, I've fought tooth and nail to get off 4 hours early at work to goto the mets Dodgers game Friday 

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

There's some serious activity around Baltimore:

The same areas that had the tornado warnings earlier are going to get crushed again

70 mph winds and ping pong ball hail

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

 

Honestly I'd rather live in an area that's a dud for wind events. 

Remarkably despite this I have lost plenty of huge old trees to wind. And some to the POS Emerald Ash Borer but that's not the weather's fault lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I forgot how much this area sucks for severe. Having lived in Baltimore County and witnessed the same super cell that produced the college park tornado, that area is underrated for severe. In the 4 years I was there for college I saw at least 3 varifiable severe storms. Maybe 3 in 35+ years on the island. 

Here in WB several years ago maybe 2019 I forget but we had some crazy severe come through and I think some winds over 100mph and I had no power for four days 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Here in WB several years ago maybe 2019 I forget but we had some crazy severe come through and I think some winds over 100mph and I had no power for four days 

YES! My gf was living there at the time. The tree damage was pretty incredible. Lots of mature trees snapped like 20’ up. The kind of damage that only happens with 80+mph straight line winds. I wish I was there for the storm. I saw it that evening. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

YES! My gf was living there at the time. The tree damage was pretty incredible. Lots of mature trees snapped like 20’ up. The kind of damage that only happens with 80+mph straight line winds. I wish I was there for the storm. I saw it that evening. 

We thought it was a tornado and we went down to the basement. When we came up it looked like a tornado hit lol.